2010 Tropical Cyclone Reports

[JonathanBelles]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072010_Earl.pdf

Earl report is out. Indeed, it was a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia, as supported by surface observations.

That last graphic is very interesting. Not one model had it to the west of the actual track, and the fact that the GFSI was the closest to the actual track is interesting as well. GFS did the best out of all of the models for Earl in many of the time frames.

[CrazyC83]

Richard now out. Made landfall as a Category 2 (not 1 as operationally estimated).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL192010_Richard.pdf

Agreeable. We all knew it was more intense when it was making landfall.

Correct. It might have been stronger still but with no observations supporting its intensity, it couldn't be upgraded any higher as it was a pure guess based on its radar and satellite signature. As a result, 85 kt seems reasonable.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072010_Earl.pdf

Earl report is out. Indeed, it was a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia, as supported by surface observations.

That last graphic is very interesting. Not one model had it to the west of the actual track, and the fact that the GFSI was the closest to the actual track is interesting as well. GFS did the best out of all of the models for Earl in many of the time frames.

Luckily it didn't keep trending left, since it got really nerve-wracking for a while thinking Earl may actually hit the coast! If the track had been farther west, it would have been a virtual repeat of Floyd...

[CrazyC83]

EPAC track map now up, since all the named storms have been completed (awaiting 08E, which I think they might downgrade to a wave/low and might have been improperly classified - since TDs don't go in HURDAT it doesn't matter too much).

[Florida1118]

Why is Nicole taking such a long time?

[Macrocane]

Why is Nicole taking such a long time?

Maybe they're still looking for conclusive data to support tropical storm intensity, it was a very weird system, like an hybrid monsoon/tropical low so it may be a hard system to analyze.

[Cyclone1]

Why is Nicole taking such a long time?

Maybe they just forgot Nicole actually happened.

[cycloneye]

Why is Nicole taking such a long time?

Is not discounted that they downgrade to TD and that is why it's taking a long time to analize.

[Category 5]

I actually spoke to Bill Read at the AMS conference today, the topic of Nicole didn't come up (mostly talking about the uselessness of seasonal forecasts and the state of mind at the NHC during Earl), if I get the chance to speak to him again maybe I can get a little information.

Very very nice guy btw.

[Hurricanehink]

We shouldn't forget that Omeka will also get a report. I'm rather interested how the CPHC will treat it, whether they will claim it as a hurricane in the WPAC, when it was fully tropical, etc.

[cycloneye]

The last report that was left for the EPAC (Tropical Depression Eight-E) is up at the first post of thread.

[CrazyC83]

We shouldn't forget that Omeka will also get a report. I'm rather interested how the CPHC will treat it, whether they will claim it as a hurricane in the WPAC, when it was fully tropical, etc.

That will be fun to see, and may not come out for a while. The JTWC (and JMA?) have a say in that too. I do think it was a typhoon (it was across 180 so it would be called that) for a while.

[cycloneye]

Finnally the Nicole report has been released and is posted at the first post of thread.Below is the most important part of the report.

Nicole was a rather unusual system for the Atlantic basin, with a structure somewhat
resembling that of a monsoon depression of the Indian or western Pacific Oceans. The radius of
maximum winds was quite large, at least 200 n mi from the center, although convection was
within about 90-120 n mi, which was close enough to the center to warrant a tropical or
subtropical classification. One notable difference is that while monsoon depressions can have a
cold-core structure, AMSU data suggested that Nicole was warm-core in the middle to upper
levels (Fig. 4), with the warm-core strengthening with time, more typical of a tropical cyclone.
The estimated peak intensity of this system was based on ASCAT and aircraft data. The
peak flight-level winds were 46 kt at 850 mb on 29 September at 1742 UTC, with SFMR values
of 36-39 kt around that time. ASCAT data from the previous day indicated maximum winds of
about 40 kt.

[neospaceblue]

Maybe they're still looking for conclusive data to support tropical storm intensity, it was a very weird system, like an hybrid monsoon/tropical low so it may be a hard system to analyze.

Is not discounted that they downgrade to TD and that is why it's taking a long time to analize.

Nicole was a rather unusual system for the Atlantic basin, with a structure somewhat
resembling that of a monsoon depression of the Indian or western Pacific Oceans. The radius of
maximum winds was quite large, at least 200 n mi from the center, although convection was
within about 90-120 n mi, which was close enough to the center to warrant a tropical or
subtropical classification. One notable difference is that while monsoon depressions can have a
cold-core structure, AMSU data suggested that Nicole was warm-core in the middle to upper
levels (Fig. 4), with the warm-core strengthening with time, more typical of a tropical cyclone.
The estimated peak intensity of this system was based on ASCAT and aircraft data. The
peak flight-level winds were 46 kt at 850 mb on 29 September at 1742 UTC, with SFMR values
of 36-39 kt around that time. ASCAT data from the previous day indicated maximum winds of
about 40 kt.

So...instead of downgrading it, they raised the intensity...definitely did not see that coming.

[Macrocane]

Neither do I, it seems that the only "possible mistake" this season was Gaston.

[Florida1118]

Apparently she was never a Depression at any point either. Very different storm, and we were thinking downgrading.

[Macrocane]

Yeah, the fact that she was never a depression and in fact it was a tropical storm for more than 24 hours is very surprising, it seems that Nicole didn't join the "tropical storm for 6 hours" club after all.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Karl report is up and posted at first post of thread.Peak intensity was 110 kts.

Only two reports are left (Igor and Tomas)

[CrazyC83]

Huge difference between the insurance industry estimates for damage (about $210M) and the Mexican government estimate (over $5B).

I personally would have gone 65 kt - hurricane intensity - at first landfall. SFMR measured about 60 kt in the last mission (supporting 60 kt by 0900Z on September 15), and then the radar showed an eye forming at the time.

The peak intensity seems reasonable. The landfall intensity is problematic - the pressure of 976mb does not support Cat 3 (it would normally only support about 80-85 kt), but the winds were too difficult to figure out (there was an SFMR on the weaker side of about 85 kt and FL winds support about 105 kt at the time). I would have gone 95 kt (strong Cat 2) for the landfall intensity, thinking it weakened quite a bit more.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Igor report is up at the first post of thread. The peak intensity was 135 kts. Crazy,do you agree?