Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#3341 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:02 pm

GFS runs about 4pm central time and Euro about 6pm central time.

bella_may · #3342 Postby **bella_may** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:10 pm

BigB0882 wrote:GFS runs about 4pm central time and Euro about 6pm central time.

Ok thanks! Keeping fingers crossed lol

#3343 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:11 pm

Just looking at this again, NAM is showing a foot of snow for Pascagoula Mississippi!! :eek:

Metalicwx220 · #3344 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:13 pm

Eight inches in northwest florida? Yeah right :roll:

#3345 Postby **MississippiWx** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:15 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Just looking at this again, NAM is showing a foot of snow for Pascagoula Mississippi!!

Not really sure what to think about those bullseyes on the Coast of MS and in Alabama. Seems sort of like convective feedback. Maybe not, hopefully not!

bella_may · #3346 Postby **bella_may** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:16 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Just looking at this again, NAM is showing a foot of snow for Pascagoula Mississippi!!

WOW! I live just 20 minutes north of there!

#3347 Postby **Pearl River** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:17 pm

Of course I'm in the blank area in Pearl River/Slidell :cry:

SunnyThoughts · #3348 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:21 pm

I sound like a broken record because I say this EVERY time lol I'd be happy just to see a few flakes. But I wouldn't be a happy camper with Mobile getting 6 or 7 inches of snow...and those of us in P'cola getting a few flakes...no no no not happy at all lol

#3349 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:25 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:I sound like a broken record because I say this EVERY time lol I'd be happy just to see a few flakes. But I wouldn't be a happy camper with Mobile getting 6 or 7 inches of snow...and those of us in P'cola getting a few flakes...no no no not happy at all lol

I'm not worried about specific locals at this stage. What is encouraging, is the trend for colder and wetter. A nice overrunning event is coming for the Gulf coast. I'm cashing in on the 18z Nam!

#3350 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:27 pm

We all know this will not pan out exactly (location wise)as the NAM or any of the models are showing right now. But if you're in the general area of where they are predicting it then there is a decent chance you will see some form of Wintry mix "if" this does pan out. IMO We shall see.

#3351 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:28 pm

Exactly Ivanhater.

Ivanhater wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:I sound like a broken record because I say this EVERY time lol I'd be happy just to see a few flakes. But I wouldn't be a happy camper with Mobile getting 6 or 7 inches of snow...and those of us in P'cola getting a few flakes...no no no not happy at all lol

I'm not worried about specific locals at this stage. What is encouraging, is the trend for colder and wetter. A nice overrunning event is coming for the Gulf coast. I'm cashing in on the 18z Nam!

Metalicwx220 · #3352 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:50 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Exactly Ivanhater.

Ivanhater wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:I sound like a broken record because I say this EVERY time lol I'd be happy just to see a few flakes. But I wouldn't be a happy camper with Mobile getting 6 or 7 inches of snow...and those of us in P'cola getting a few flakes...no no no not happy at all lol

I'm not worried about specific locals at this stage. What is encouraging, is the trend for colder and wetter. A nice overrunning event is coming for the Gulf coast. I'm cashing in on the 18z Nam!

What is this overrunning you all speak of.???????????????????????????

#3353 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:52 pm

Warm, moist Gulf air overrunning the cold shallow air already in place along the Gulf coast. (Warm air rises over colder air)

#3354 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:56 pm

The map the NAM has shows a tiny spot of 5 inches directly over Baton Rouge. Caching! I'm taking my snow and running with it!

Website · #3355 Postby **Brent** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:00 pm

I'm gonna be real upset if the coast sees snow and I don't. I have been shafted in all the other events with only a light dusting of snow, lol.

BMX:

ON TO ROUND 2...SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE SE PART OF
AL AND ALONG THE COAST FOR WED NT. AS WILL BE IN THE SHALLOW COLD
SFC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...
POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER THE FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND S OF I-85...AS
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING
MARK AND COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW. THEN...AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY
DAYTIME...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM BACK INTO AL OVER-RIDDING
A SHALLOW COLD STABLE LAYER AT THE SFC WHERE N/NE FLOW REMAINS BUT
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF. SW/SRLY
FLOW AT 850MB WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF AND SW FLOW AT 500MB WILL HELP USHER SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL LOOK TO SEE MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES SPREAD BACK NWD ACROSS C AL ON THU OF THE COLD RAIN
VARIETY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS THU NT A MIXED BAG OF FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SFC GO DOWN TO NEAR
30 NW TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE NIGHT BUT
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NW WILL GO BELOW AND WILL BE MOST
VULNERABLE. HOWEVER...WINDOW WILL BE SMALL AND SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY FRI. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS
WATCH THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRI DAYTIME...START TO HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS. GFS PULLS A FRONT THROUGH TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT TOO SOON. 12Z RUN A LITTLE MORE INTO ALIGNMENT WITH EURO BUT
MORE CONFIDENT IN SLOWER SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT AS GFS IN NOTORIOUS
FOR MOVING SYSTEMS OUT TOO QUICK. THEREFORE...COULD HAVE RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER COLUMN OF AIR MOVES IN ON FRI NT
BEFORE ALL OF THE MOISTURE LEAVES THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP
TO REINFORCE COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND A MOST APPRECIATED
BREAK FOR SUN IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY.

BUT NO...THAT/S NOT ALL...IF YOU HAVEN/T HAD ENOUGH...YET A 3RD
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE NEXT MONDAY IN OUR FAR EXTENDED AS
ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH YET ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY OF A WINTERY MIX FOR ALABAMA. HOWEVER...EXTENDED
MODELS LOVE TO DANGLE THIS WINTER CARROT IN FRONT OF US...WITH
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. HOWEVER...ALWAYS ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUR INTEREST.

Friday Night...Cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening...then chance of snow or rain after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Saturday...Cloudy with chance of rain or snow in the morning... Then partly cloudy with chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Monday Night...Cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening...then chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

#3356 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:01 pm

BigB0882 wrote:The map the NAM has shows a tiny spot of 5 inches directly over Baton Rouge. Caching! I'm taking my snow and running with it!

BigB, I'm in Reserve (just south-east of you, between you and New Orleans) and everything I've seen so far supports not snow but ice. :froze:

Not fun at all, but it's still early yet and things can change.

bella_may · #3357 Postby **bella_may** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:01 pm

Here comes the GFS model! Good luck everybody!

#3358 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:02 pm

I agree, I think our chances of ice are higher than that of snow but if temps continue to be overdone then you never know. I am keeping my fingers crossed and hopes up. Couldn't do any harm, right?

#3359 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:04 pm

NWS Mobile/Pensacola already mentioning next weeks snow chances along the Gulf coast :wink:

EVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK FOR MOS
TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...THOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHEN A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA...THEN ENDS AS IT PUSHES A FRONT OVER THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS ADVERTISING THIS ENDING AS
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT...A LOT CAN CHANGE.

Metalicwx220 · #3360 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:05 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I agree, I think our chances of ice are higher than that of snow but if temps continue to be overdone then you never know. I am keeping my fingers crossed and hopes up. Couldn't do any harm, right?

Yeah it can also shift east and bring us snow and you all .................... well it can't be rain.

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