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HockeyTx82 wrote:downsouthman1 wrote:I didn't see this posted in the forum.
Check this out!!!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/ ... obs_sn.php
You talking about Saturday? If so what's that all about?
HockeyTx82 wrote:Ok, so I see lots of stars out there just now. Forecast says it will be
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values between -7 and -12. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph
If those clouds are gone could we go lower?
Also, they say clouds in the forecast tomorrow. Do Arctic air masses clear out at night and cloud up during the day by chance?
iorange55 wrote:Schools are already closing for tomorrow.
iorange55 wrote:Schools are already closing for tomorrow.
my Cowboys my Rockets my Astrossoutherngale wrote:Jeff Lindner, about 15 minutes ago, on KHOU:
Potentially a historic snow event in the making for SE TX. Models continue to trend wetter and while QPF is not all that int he GFS its moisture fields above the surface are for sure. Am starting to think the CMC is on the right track here and feel some impressive totals will be possible with meso scale banding. Could easily see 3-5 inches across the entire area with bands over 6-8 inches (my latest e-mail has a discussion of the thinking, if someone could post it). I could see someone getting a foot also, but who would forecast a foot of snow down here?
Interesting that the NAM wants to kick things off a bit earlier now on Thursday afternoon.
Suspect Watches will be hoisted tomorrow as we fall within 36 hours of the onset.
southerngale wrote:I'm not sure why they're doing this tomorrow, but from KFDM:
Deweyville schools delayed start Wed-Friday
February 01, 2011 6:58 PM
DEWEYVILLE - Deweyville schools will begin one hour later on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings.
All buses will run one hour later.
txagwxman wrote:southerngale wrote:Jeff Lindner, about 15 minutes ago, on KHOU: I could see someone getting a foot also, but who would forecast a foot of snow down here? Interesting that the NAM wants to kick things off a bit earlier now on Thursday afternoon.
Suspect Watches will be hoisted tomorrow as we fall within 36 hours of the onset.
[/b]
Catching on eh?
Texas Snowman wrote:txagwxman wrote:southerngale wrote:Jeff Lindner, about 15 minutes ago, on KHOU: I could see someone getting a foot also, but who would forecast a foot of snow down here? Interesting that the NAM wants to kick things off a bit earlier now on Thursday afternoon.
Suspect Watches will be hoisted tomorrow as we fall within 36 hours of the onset.
[/b]
Catching on eh?
Who would have forecast a white Christmas, nearly 10 inches of snow in Corpus, and 14+ inches in Victoria on Dec. 24, 2004?!?
Ntxw wrote:southerngale wrote:I'm not sure why they're doing this tomorrow, but from KFDM:
Deweyville schools delayed start Wed-Friday
February 01, 2011 6:58 PM
DEWEYVILLE - Deweyville schools will begin one hour later on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings.
All buses will run one hour later.
My guess is so the kids won't have to wait during the coldest period of the day especially with wind chills.
my Cowboys my Rockets my Astros
southerngale wrote:Jeff Lindner, about 15 minutes ago, on KHOU:
Potentially a historic snow event in the making for SE TX. Models continue to trend wetter and while QPF is not all that int he GFS its moisture fields above the surface are for sure. Am starting to think the CMC is on the right track here and feel some impressive totals will be possible with meso scale banding. Could easily see 3-5 inches across the entire area with bands over 6-8 inches ([b]my latest e-mail has a discussion of the thinking, if someone could post it). I could see someone getting a foot also, but who would forecast a foot of snow down here?
Interesting that the NAM wants to kick things off a bit earlier now on Thursday afternoon.
Suspect Watches will be hoisted tomorrow as we fall within 36 hours of the onset.
[/b]
Impressive arctic air mass pouring into the region late this afternoon with temperatures at or below freezing along and N of a line from Columbus to Tomball to Livingston. Cold air advection showing no signs of giving up with NW winds still howling at 25-35mph driving wind chills into the teens. Temperature records may be tied or broken over the next few days. Appears this will be the coldest air across N TX since the great outbreak of Dec 1989.
After reviewing full 12Z guidance, pattern upcoming pattern resembles that of past historical snow events over TX and is almost a mirror image of the very impressive 2004 Christmas event (only difference is more moisture and a stornger upper level storm, yes stronger than 2004!!!). CMC model refuses to back down on its very impressive snow fall totals and the GFS is starting to trend wetter. Not sure why the GFS and ECMWF are not producing more QPF as they show good moisture advection and near saturated surface to 500mb by late Thursday night completely below freezing. Given the forecast location of a developing coastal low, very strong upper level forcing and dynamics, and good Gulf moisture advection it all points to widespread heavy snowfall with impressive meso scale banding features.
With ground temperatures expected to be below freezing much of the time leading up to the event there will be little to no warmth for melting as the snow starts and this fact alone will help beef up totals.
If I would have forecasted a foot of snow in Victoria in 2004, I probably would not have believed myself much less expected others to believe me...and I have a really hard time forecasting totals more than 2-3" at this time. However I am becoming increasingly concerned that a potential historic snow event may be in the making and totals could be greater than 6-8 inches over parts of the area. Under meso scale banding hourly snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches of accumulation with visibilities dropping to near 1/4th of a mile. Where these bands set up we could really see totals ramp up quick.
Right now will expand the 1-3" snow fall to include much of the area north of a line from Port Lavaca east to the coast near Palacios and then to High Island and inland to HWY 105. South of a line from Port Lavaca to San Antonio a mix of snow/sleet will cut totals down into the 1/2 to 1.5 inch range.
Extended period of sub freezing temperatures prior to the event will result in rare significant snow accumulation not only on bridges but all surface streets. Expect all roadways to become snow covered creating very dangerous driving conditions by late Thursday evening.
Suspect a Winter Storm Watch will be issued on Wednesday for the entire area or parts of the area as we move to within 36-40 hours of the onset of the event.
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