Texas Winter 2010-2011

[snow4444]

AWESOME how much does that equate to

[HockeyTx82]

No mention of snow later this week for Denton................ At least as of now. Am I just to far north?

[HockeyTx82]

What about the gas thing? Anyone know anything?

[DonWrk]

I've heard my air compressor go off twice lol the cold must effect pressurized stuff somehow.

[South Texas Storms]

00z UKMET shows a nice area of about an inch of snow from Houston to College Station. It also shows maybe a dusting for DFW and Austin.

[wxman22]

GFS shows swath of snow extending all the way to the dfw area.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

JUST GUESSING HERE.... doesn't gas expand when it's warm and contract when its cold (I'm guessing your heating gas lines aren't buried very deep and there is now a huge draw on it as well). Russia during an exceptionally cold winter had residents complaining that the gas pressure had dropped resulting in them not being able to heat their homes/businesses very well.

[iorange55]

If there is more moisture to play with than expect could be a widespread event all the way from south texas to North. Right now it's still very light. GFS showing a widespread up to an inch or so.

I'm guessing it might go up a tad though.

[Turtle]

Snow chances upped in Marshall, TX.

30% Thursday Night
40% Friday
20% Friday Night

Up from 30%, 30%, 20%. And that was up from 20%, 20%. Good trends!!

[South Texas Storms]

Awesome run of the gfs tonight! This is the wettest it has been with it showing widespread 1 inch snowfall amounts for the eastern half of Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

the 500mb chart looks VERY similar to the 2004 event now lol.

[downsouthman1]

I'm gonna assume that the models will forecast QPF too low because they assume that the system that came through today scoured the atmosphere of moisture. If there's one thing I know about central, south, & southeast TX, it's that it's quite difficult to scour it of moisture. The Gulf is right there & this ULL should also have access to Pacific moisture.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm gonna assume that the models will forecast QPF too low because they assume that the system that came through today scoured the atmosphere of moisture. If there's one thing I know about moisture in central, south, & southeast TX, it's that it's quite difficult to scour it of moisture. The Gulf is right there & this ULL should also have access to Pacific moisture.

I think your statment is spot on. I expect and hope the models will trend wetter until the event unfolds.

[txagwxman]

WELL FREEZE OFFS...

Wellheads freeze at these low temps, no gas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm gonna assume that the models will forecast QPF too low because they assume that the system that came through today scoured the atmosphere of moisture. If there's one thing I know about moisture in central, south, & southeast TX, it's that it's quite difficult to scour it of moisture. The Gulf is right there & this ULL should also have access to Pacific moisture.

I agree, always comes with much more moisture than normal

[iorange55]

Round 2 next week

[jasons2k]

I remember back in 1989 the schools closed due to a gas curtailment due to the demand.

[downsouthman1]

I'm gonna assume that the models will forecast QPF too low because they assume that the system that came through today scoured the atmosphere of moisture. If there's one thing I know about moisture in central, south, & southeast TX, it's that it's quite difficult to scour it of moisture. The Gulf is right there & this ULL should also have access to Pacific moisture.

I agree, always comes with much more moisture than normal

I don't know about more than normal. I think it comes with what is normal. I just don't personally believe that models understand the concept of readily available moisture for ULLs that travel very far south.

Think of any ULL that passed over this region in the past 10 years, not just winter time but all the time. Moisture is never the issue. During the winter, it's always temperature. Well, that's not a problem this time, so you do the math...Models will never understand that. What we experience along the Gulf Coast is similar to Lake Effect Snows along the Great Lakes region. The difference is that our temperature is normally considerably higher than in the Great Lakes, so it's normally rain throught the year. That's why Houston gets rain on average every other day. It's because the moisture doesn't even have to travel far at all. So there is no real scientifc weather term for what happens here. But it happens.

[South Texas Storms]

When does the cmc model come out? I am going to bed after that...

[Brandon8181]

I think we will have another situation next week. I'll post my forecast in a bit.