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SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
actually looks 130kts now, strengthening into landfall which isnt good!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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ManilaTC
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 593
- Age: 47
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- Location: Mandaluyong City, Philippines
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
NOT GOOD!
Just like what happened to our basin WPac's STY Megi (Juan) last year. Looks like a "Super Cyclone" on landfall.
Just like what happened to our basin WPac's STY Megi (Juan) last year. Looks like a "Super Cyclone" on landfall.
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The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.
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IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cape Flattery to Sarina and inland to
the Northern Territory border are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:50pm EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Sarina, extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern
Territory border.
At 9:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 145
kilometres east southeast of Cairns and 110 kilometres east of Innisfail and
moving west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.
THE VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI WILL CROSS THE COAST NEAR INNISFAIL
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT, WITH A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE AND BATTERING WAVES SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONE CENTRE.
Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly
direction and is expected to cross the coast near Innisfail close to midnight.
Coastal residents between Cairns and Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses
the coast and moves inland.
Higher than normal tides will exceed the high water mark with damaging waves and
flooding in low lying areas in remaining warning areas to the south of Ayr.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h are expected to develop between
Cairns and Ingham during the next few hours as the cyclone approaches. These
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend inland to the nearby ranges including the
Atherton Tablelands.
Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cape Tribulation and
Ayr are expected to spread inland overnight.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas
between Cape Flattery and Sarina, and are forecast to spread inland and west to
Mt Isa during Thursday.
Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday
morning as the cyclone moves inland.
FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina tonight and gradually extend
inland.
People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive
winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services
personnel and local authorities.
People in remaining areas between Cape Flattery and Sarina and extending west
across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should complete
preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 9:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 147.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm EST Wednesday 02 February.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cape Flattery to Sarina and inland to
the Northern Territory border are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:50pm EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Sarina, extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern
Territory border.
At 9:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 145
kilometres east southeast of Cairns and 110 kilometres east of Innisfail and
moving west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.
THE VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI WILL CROSS THE COAST NEAR INNISFAIL
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT, WITH A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE AND BATTERING WAVES SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONE CENTRE.
Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly
direction and is expected to cross the coast near Innisfail close to midnight.
Coastal residents between Cairns and Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses
the coast and moves inland.
Higher than normal tides will exceed the high water mark with damaging waves and
flooding in low lying areas in remaining warning areas to the south of Ayr.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h are expected to develop between
Cairns and Ingham during the next few hours as the cyclone approaches. These
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend inland to the nearby ranges including the
Atherton Tablelands.
Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cape Tribulation and
Ayr are expected to spread inland overnight.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas
between Cape Flattery and Sarina, and are forecast to spread inland and west to
Mt Isa during Thursday.
Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday
morning as the cyclone moves inland.
FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina tonight and gradually extend
inland.
People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive
winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services
personnel and local authorities.
People in remaining areas between Cape Flattery and Sarina and extending west
across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should complete
preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 9:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 147.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm EST Wednesday 02 February.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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-
AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3999
- Age: 61
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: Ballston Spa, New York
- Contact:
Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
Pretty significant southwestward wobble between 1020 and 1120 UTC. Landfall still looks to be very close to Innisfail.
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-
AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3999
- Age: 61
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: Ballston Spa, New York
- Contact:
Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
Yet another example that reinforces the idea that linear extrapolation of the last 2-3 hour motion of a TC is prone to error given it's trochoidal motion.
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Amazingly intense TC bearing down on the coast. Massive flooding over a very large area.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cape Flattery to Proserpine and inland
to the Northern Territory border are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 9:58pm EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Proserpine, extending west across the tropical interior to the
Northern Territory border.
At 10:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 135
kilometres east southeast of Cairns and 90 kilometres east of Innisfail and
moving west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.
THE VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI WILL CROSS THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF
INNISFAIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT, WITH A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE AND BATTERING WAVES
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly
direction and is expected to cross the coast near Innisfail close to midnight.
Coastal residents between Innisfail and Ayr, particularly between Cardwell and
Lucinda, are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e.
storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland.
Higher than normal tides will exceed the high water mark with damaging waves and
flooding in low lying areas elsewhere between Cairns and Proserpine.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h are expected to develop between
Cairns and Ingham during the next few hours as the cyclone approaches. These
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend inland to the nearby ranges including the
Atherton Tablelands.
Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cape Tribulation and
Ayr are expected to spread inland overnight.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas
between Cape Flattery and Proserpine, and are forecast to spread inland and west
to Mt Isa during Thursday.
Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday
morning as the cyclone moves inland.
FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Proserpine tonight and gradually
extend inland.
People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive
winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services
personnel and local authorities.
People in remaining areas between Cape Flattery and Proserpine and extending
west across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should
complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 146.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cape Flattery to Proserpine and inland
to the Northern Territory border are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 9:58pm EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Proserpine, extending west across the tropical interior to the
Northern Territory border.
At 10:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 135
kilometres east southeast of Cairns and 90 kilometres east of Innisfail and
moving west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.
THE VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE OF CYCLONE YASI WILL CROSS THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF
INNISFAIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT, WITH A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE AND BATTERING WAVES
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly
direction and is expected to cross the coast near Innisfail close to midnight.
Coastal residents between Innisfail and Ayr, particularly between Cardwell and
Lucinda, are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e.
storm tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland.
Higher than normal tides will exceed the high water mark with damaging waves and
flooding in low lying areas elsewhere between Cairns and Proserpine.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h are expected to develop between
Cairns and Ingham during the next few hours as the cyclone approaches. These
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend inland to the nearby ranges including the
Atherton Tablelands.
Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cape Tribulation and
Ayr are expected to spread inland overnight.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas
between Cape Flattery and Proserpine, and are forecast to spread inland and west
to Mt Isa during Thursday.
Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday
morning as the cyclone moves inland.
FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Proserpine tonight and gradually
extend inland.
People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive
winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services
personnel and local authorities.
People in remaining areas between Cape Flattery and Proserpine and extending
west across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should
complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 146.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals
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