SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar image

[HURAKAN]

wow, that's really impressive

[Chacor]

Pressure is down to 981 hPa at South Johnstone near Innisfail.

[HURAKAN]

TPPS12 PGTW 021210

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI)

B. 02/1132Z

C. 17.5S

D. 146.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE WITH W SURROUNDING
CNVCTN PLUS 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS 7.0 DT. MET AGREES. PT
YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0723Z 17.1S 147.9E SSMI
02/0750Z 17.1S 147.7E SSMS
02/0904Z 17.2S 147.4E SSMS


ROSS

[Chacor]

89,000 homes are now without power in Queensland, according to the Premier Anna Bligh.

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/Interactive-Map.aspx?wcid=387

webcam south of Townsville

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 FEB 2011 Time : 121600 UTC
Lat : 17:34:39 S Lon : 146:41:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 900.0mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +16.1C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Reports from 10:30-10:35 pm local time (15-20 minutes ago):
Arlington Reef 40 kt sustained, 50 kt gusts, 986.5 hPa
Cairns 21 kt sustained, 31 kt gusts, 983.9 hPa
Lucinda 43 kt sustained, 73 kt gusts, 985.3 hPa
Townsville 37 kt sustained, 46 kt gusts, 995.8 hPa

[Chacor]

As of 1214 UTC (48 minutes ago):

[Chacor]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area from Cape Flattery to Proserpine and inland
to the Northern Territory border are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:56pm EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Proserpine, extending west across the tropical interior to the
Northern Territory border

At 11:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 125
kilometres southeast of Cairns and 65 kilometres east southeast of Innisfail and
moving west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly
direction and is expected to cross the coast near Mission Beach close to
midnight.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm tide] will occur between
Innisfail and Ayr, peaking between Cardwell and Lucinda, as the cyclone
approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland.

Higher than normal tides exceeding the high water mark, and damaging waves will
continue between Cairns and Proserpine until at least the morning high tide.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 290 km/h are developing between Cairns
and Ingham and the adjacent ranges.

Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h between Cape Tribulation and
Ayr are expected to spread inland overnight.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are occurring in remaining coastal areas
between Cape Flattery and Proserpine, and are forecast to spread inland and west
to Mt Isa during Thursday.

Winds are forecast to gradually ease about the east coast during Thursday
morning as the cyclone moves inland.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Proserpine tonight and gradually
extend inland.

People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter, above the expected water level, while the very destructive
winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone; very
destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police, Emergency Services
personnel and local authorities.

People in remaining areas between Cape Flattery and Proserpine and extending
west across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, should
complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 11:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.7 degrees South 146.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am EST Thursday 03 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[ManilaTC]

I have been listening to a couple of Storm Chasers in Cardwell over at this link... the wind is heard over the audio.

http://www.swxc.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9&Itemid=15

this is live as it happens

[Chacor]

Now expected to hit south of Innisfail.

[P.K.]

Technical bulletin showing the 12Z position, 110kt cat 5.

AXAU21 ABRF 021303
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1303 UTC 02/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 146.9E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 930 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 240 nm [445 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [70 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: 6.5/6.5/d0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/0000: 18.9S 143.5E: 045 [085]: 065 [120]: 970
+24: 03/1200: 20.1S 140.6E: 075 [140]: 035 [070]: 989
+36: 04/0000: 21.2S 138.1E: 110 [205]: :
+48: 04/1200: 22.2S 136.1E: 140 [260]: :
+60: 05/0000: 23.0S 134.9E: 185 [345]: :
+72: 05/1200: 23.6S 134.3E: 230 [425]: :
REMARKS:
Dvorak satellite analysis shows TC Yasi maintaining cold cloud tops with clear
WMG eye temperature yielding DT=6.5. MET and PT agrees.

System is moving in the WSW direction at a slightly slower speed compared to 6
to 12 hours ago.

Although the mountain ranges will greatly weaken the cyclone after landfall very
strong downslope winds may extend well north of the track on the seaward side of
the hills.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

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[Crostorm]

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images to endure an eternity

[Chacor]

Now 43 kt gusting to 54 kt in Townsville. Pressure has fallen to 982.7 hPa in Lucinda.