Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Actually, I think 12z is 6am when it's non-daylight savings time. Wow ... I wonder how accurate that might be. The expectation here is that any snow won't start until afternoon. That would surprise a lot of folks.

Normally I wouldn't mention one run of the HRRR. But it's consistently shown the precip beginning around that time for several runs in a row.

[Turtle]

Yay Turtle that shows you getting 1-2 inches!

Yeah! Even 1" of snow is enough to where it looks beautiful outside. Hope everyone gets some snow!

[iorange55]

The clouds have thickened here. It looks even colder here, and smokey.

[Portastorm]

Interesting weather stat from Austin ... today's high temp of 26 degrees at ATT (Camp Mabry) is the coldest max (high temp) since February 1989.

[iorange55]

Interesting weather stat from Austin ... today's high temp of 26 degrees at ATT (Camp Mabry) is the coldest max (high temp) since February 1989.

Here in DFW we're supposed to break the record low tonight of 14. We'll see if it happens.

Might be a fire near by...smells like smoke too. Not fireplace smoke either.

[Portastorm]

Interesting weather stat from Austin ... today's high temp of 26 degrees at ATT (Camp Mabry) is the coldest max (high temp) since February 1989.

Here in DFW we're supposed to break the record low tonight of 14. We'll see if it happens.

Might be a fire near by...smells like smoke too. Not fireplace smoke either.

That would explain the "smokey" part of your weather observation, eh?! More fires certainly happen when we have this cold and folks do everything they can to stay warm.

[HockeyTx82]

Interesting weather stat from Austin ... today's high temp of 26 degrees at ATT (Camp Mabry) is the coldest max (high temp) since February 1989.

Here in DFW we're supposed to break the record low tonight of 14. We'll see if it happens.

Might be a fire near by...smells like smoke too. Not fireplace smoke either.

That would explain the "smokey" part of your weather observation, eh?! More fires certainly happen when we have this cold and folks do everything they can to stay warm.

Remember, cold air gets smokey, we saw that over in Russia earlier last month. Someone posted the air temp was -70F with smoke.

[Ntxw]

It seems so interesting that the HRRR runs are showing showers and rain activity down near the Baja. Could it be that models are drastically underestimating moisture coming in from the Pacific? Apparently it is this stuff that will be streaming through the SA and AUS areas north and east.

RUC in 21 hours. Says Portastorm will need snow boots.



*All this while the ULL is still spinning in northern Mex*

[Portastorm]

It used to be said that pinning one's hopes on an RUC run was the "last hope from a desperate man."

Maybe that has changed. I remember a few winters back getting geeked up about a particular RUC run and my post was greeted with (good natured) derision. I honestly don't know how good/bad the RUC is. How did it do with your DFW weather earlier this week?

[iorange55]

It might be one of those events where half of Texas gets 4+inches of snow and everybody says weatherman don't know what they're talking about.

[Ntxw]

It used to be said that pinning one's hopes on an RUC run was the "last hope from a desperate man."

Maybe that has changed. I remember a few winters back getting geeked up about a particular RUC run and my post was greeted with (good natured) derision. I honestly don't know how good/bad the RUC is. How did it do with your DFW weather earlier this week?

Like most models it struggled. It didn't take in the magnitude of the system. However that storm was an exception to the rule and the arctic air was underestimated by just about all of the models. This is a different situation, there isn't a fine line between snow/rain/or ice (except far SE Texas). It is a mesoscale situation though. So you're right don't hang on that run.

RUC and HRRR are only good if you see consistencies over many runs. In this case, they are adamant about a good band forming between Laredo and Del Rio. Where and how much not sure until it begins

[Portastorm]

Duly noted, Ntxw. The southwest flow over the state does look a bit "noisy" after watching a 16-loop infrared animation. Little disturbances are hard to pinpoint but they can play a role in creating that LIFT you keep talking about!

[South Texas Storms]

I'm starting to get really excited! Is that a bad thing?

Also I thought this was interesting, Today's high of 29 is the coldest high temp ever for February 2nd in San Antonio. The old record was 33 set back in 1996. It also ties for the 5th coldest high temp ever in February in San Antonio.

[Anthony]

I'm starting to get really excited! Is that a bad thing?

Also I thought this was interesting, Today's high of 29 is the coldest high temp ever for February 2nd in San Antonio. The old record was 33 set back in 1996. It also ties for the 5th coldest high temp ever in February in San Antonio.

Not a bad thing at all. We weren't even supposed to have clouds today.. the sun was supposed to warm us up to the mid 30s. That should give an idea that the moisture is deeper than models are projecting.

[Cav0]

As schools cancel for the third day in a row in DFW and the big country. I think future storms may have to be compared to this one. February 2011 will have a place in winter storm history.

[txagwxman]

As schools cancel for the third day in a row in DFW and the big country. I think future storms may have to be compared to this one. February 2011 will have a place in winter storm history.

And I thought next winter was going to be the coldest in a long time.

[BrokenGlass]

Major school districts in North Texas closed tomorrow again. Including Dallas, wow. Can anyone remember 3 weather days for DISD?

It seems like this might have happened in a late 70's cold snap. There were energy shortages then and they didn't want to warm schools. Honestly, I think that is what is happening with this storm, too. I bet Ercot has asked that schools remain closed the rest of the week. Governor Hair has some explaining to do, and that's coming from somebody that has voted for him 3 times.

[gboudx]

Major school districts in North Texas closed tomorrow again. Including Dallas, wow. Can anyone remember 3 weather days for DISD?

It seems like this might have happened in a late 70's cold snap. There were energy shortages then and they didn't want to warm schools. Honestly, I think that is what is happening with this storm, too. I bet Ercot has asked that schools remain closed the rest of the week. Governor Hair has some explaining to do, and that's coming from somebody that has voted for him 3 times.

That's possible, but the roads are still horrible.

[ROCK]

Duly noted, Ntxw. The southwest flow over the state does look a bit "noisy" after watching a 16-loop infrared animation. Little disturbances are hard to pinpoint but they can play a role in creating that LIFT you keep talking about!

Portastorm and I only thought you were a avid TS fan....

ULL digging into NMexico now...already influencing the SW flow IMO....

[cheezyWXguy]

Major school districts in North Texas closed tomorrow again. Including Dallas, wow. Can anyone remember 3 weather days for DISD?

It seems like this might have happened in a late 70's cold snap. There were energy shortages then and they didn't want to warm schools. Honestly, I think that is what is happening with this storm, too. I bet Ercot has asked that schools remain closed the rest of the week. Governor Hair has some explaining to do, and that's coming from somebody that has voted for him 3 times.

I dont think its just the heating issue although it probably contributes to it. Here in Plano, often the last district to close, the roads are treacherous. Most roads around my school were at under at least an inch of solid ice and we didnt see much accumulation lost today. I was thinking maybe friday would open back up, but with another potential episode of snow thursday night into friday, i think it'll arrive just in time to cancel school again friday. Just a little bit coupled with the remaining ice and very cold ground temps would be enough to make the roads awful again.