Texas Winter 2010-2011

[DonWrk]

So I'm looking at the water vapor images. Does the amount of moisture depend on how far south and west that low can dip down there to get that moisture?

[South Texas Storms]

Ehh, the 00z GFS is pretty similar to the 18z...

It does have a nice swath for the Brownsville/Corpus area! That should give verification for the winter storm warnings down there.

Mr No still stagnant.

Still looks good for CLL and SA right?

[snow4444]

Ahhh am i reading that right about 1-2 for the DFW area right?

[Ntxw]

So I'm looking at the water vapor images. Does the amount of moisture depend on how far south and west that low can dip down there to get that moisture?

A lot of the moisture coming from the Pacific is upper to mid levels. The low is already drawing that in. You'd need some good low level (surface moisture) in play also and that's where the gulf comes in. Without it, one large blizzard of virga! Yuck.

Still looks good for CLL and SA right?

GFS looks about the same for both as previous runs.

[cperez1594]

From Brownsville NWS this evening


Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

.VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM NOW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...THE APPROACH
OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
WEST...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...
MAINLY FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY.

TXZ250-251-253>257-031115-
/O.UPG.KBRO.WS.A.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBRO.WS.W.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KBRO.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110204T1800Z/
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALFURRIAS...SARITA...MCALLEN...
EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE LONE STAR STATE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...
WILL PRODUCE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND NOON
THURSDAY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR THAT RUNS FROM MCALLEN
TO FALFURRIAS. WEST OF THIS CORRIDOR...SNOW AND SLEET ARE LIKELY.
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...AND SNOW AND SLEET WEST OF THE
CORRIDOR. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.

ALSO...MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD ARCTIC
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15
DEGREES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO OR BELOW 20 FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. PERSONS NOT
ACCLIMATED TO THESE EXTREME VALUES MAY EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE IF NOT
PROTECTED...AND COULD DIE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST ONE INCH ON ROADS OR
WALKWAYS...AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION...OR ICE
ACCRETION OF ONE EIGHTH INCH OR MORE ON EXPOSED SURFACES.
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE THEM
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

[DonWrk]

Ahhh am i reading that right about 1-2 for the DFW area right?

That shows the current snow depth already on the ground also.

[BigB0882]

Is the L really moving in an unexpected way or is that just "wobble watching" like people do with hurricanes?

[kb75007]

If we got even an inch or so in DFW it seems like it wouldn't be very good since it's been so cold. It would stick to the already icy roads and make them worse.

[DonWrk]

Is the L really moving in an unexpected way or is that just "wobble watching" like people do with hurricanes?

What map are you tracking the low with?

[BigB0882]

Is the L really moving in an unexpected way or is that just "wobble watching" like people do with hurricanes?

What map are you tracking the low with?

I'm not. I just saw someone else mentioned it was going more east. I will find the post and edit this with the quote. Here, someone brought it from another board...

"A big bust from the get go. Temps will not get as low tonight and the upper low over NM has shifted east not taking the dive south as the models indicated. The moisture in the Gulf is moving south and east into LA. To many variables that did not come together. Great snow maker for central and north TX. IMO."

[iorange55]

I think something close to what the GFS will happen. San Antonio and Austin might pick up 1-2 inches. Probably an inch around here in DFW. Houston 1-2 inches. I think some places though might see heavier amounts, just don't know where.




My own personal disclaimer. I'm not a pro and I never plan to be, so you shouldn't believe anything I forecast as it will be wrong 75% of the time. In fact it's probably a higher amount than that so I'm wrong about being wrong.

[DonWrk]

I have no idea then. If other people on the board aren't agreeing too much with that statement then I wouldn't pay too much attention to it but who knows.

[snow4444]

Yeah i took that in account we only have about an inch on the ground alot of ice everywhere though.

[southerngale]

Ehh, the 00z GFS is pretty similar to the 18z...

It does have a nice swath for the Brownsville/Corpus area! That should give verification for the winter storm warnings down there.

Mr No still stagnant.

Not for everyone, unless I'm missing something. According to TwisterData, it still looks good in this part of SE TX, perhaps even a little better, when doing comparisons to the 18Z.

I'm sure they'll all change some with each new run.

[Outlaw JW]

Very light snow flurries 6 miles northwest of Del Rio.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011


.UPDATE...
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH...TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH AS EARLIER
EXPECTED. HAVE BUMPED UP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME VIRGA OR LIGHT FLURRIES MAY BE SQUEEZED OUT OF
THE STRATUS TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT ADD FLURRIES TO THE
FORECAST. THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING TO ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND A LIGHTER BAND CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE
ALSO LEFT THE LOW POPS WITH LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THE
18Z RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE
12Z ECWMF...HAVE ADDED CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
BOTH MODELS SHOW A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
ECWMF SOLUTION INDICATING MORE QPF. WILL NOT ADD SNOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF THE 00Z RUN CONTINUES THIS TREND...WE MAY NEED TO
ADD SNOW FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

Did not get above 19 today, and local mets still say we could get about 1 inch of snow thursday night/Friday across the metroplex.

[Ntxw]

Not for everyone, unless I'm missing something. According to TwisterData, it still looks good in this part of SE TX, perhaps even a little better, when doing comparisons to the 18Z.

I'm sure they'll all change some with each new run.

I did notice that! I am a little more worried for far SE Texas. Soundings from the GFS has a warm layer at 850, not too warm but if it's a little stronger than progged, sleet would be predominant. Then again if it's not cold enough then all snow (GFS has 3+ near your area). Sometimes that's the price to pay for moisture, warm air comes up the gulf with it. I do think you will see some snow eventually .

Twisterdata can be unreliable when it comes to sleet, I learned this week from the storm that went through lol. Wxcaster is better as it doesn't include the other stuff just pure snow but you'd have to wait awhile for those to complete.

[southerngale]

Ntxw... thanks. I hope so. I tried not to get my hopes up, but that didn't work!

[Cuda17]

Where are all of the optimistic folks tonight??? srain, portastorm? Too much negativity about the "event"!

[iorange55]

Where are all of the optimistic folks tonight??? srain, portastorm? Too much negativity about the "event"!

Hey my 1-2 inches is a lot to be forecasting! Since it is South Texas we're talking about.