Texas Winter 2010-2011

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iorange55
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6201 Postby iorange55 » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:10 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
iorange55 wrote:HRRR almost seems to have a hole over houston of no snow, lol. But I think this latest run is a good sign. It's showing heavier precip all around Houston. Then a band moving from San Antonio all the way back to the Texas/LA border moving north towards Austin and it's pretty decent moisture too.



I thought you just said it came in well? lol

link?



It is! You can't really pay attention to the extreme "details" with this model. The main point is it's showing some decent moisture all around.


http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6202 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:11 am

Portastorm wrote:Radar is starting to show a few snow flurry returns here in Travis County but I haven't heard any actual reports yet of observed snow. Probably virga.


Careful as you go up to kick that football, Portastorm. There's just not very much moisture so far inland (as you). I'm thinking less than an inch now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6203 Postby Brandon8181 » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:12 am

Portastorm wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:I guess I'll just start looking forward to a potential beautiful snowfall even next week and put this ice storm behind me :)


Here's hoping you have a dry and sunny and relatively warm weekend and work returns!



Yes - me to.... :) and thank you...

I still want to see pretty snow next week. I just don't want to be off work all week, but maybe 1 day :) lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6204 Postby txagwxman » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:12 am

serenata09 wrote:Radar returns seem to be lighting up over the coastal bend from Beaumont down to Corpus! I hope you all get some winter precip. excitement!

Evaporating before it hits.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6205 Postby txagwxman » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:13 am

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Radar is starting to show a few snow flurry returns here in Travis County but I haven't heard any actual reports yet of observed snow. Probably virga.


Careful as you go up to kick that football, Portastorm. There's just not very much moisture so far inland (as you). I'm thinking less than an inch now.



There's not much moisture anywhere right now, hopefully the UKMET is right on some advecting in later...but that Corpus sounding looks atrocious.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6206 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:13 am

iorange55 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
iorange55 wrote:HRRR almost seems to have a hole over houston of no snow, lol. But I think this latest run is a good sign. It's showing heavier precip all around Houston. Then a band moving from San Antonio all the way back to the Texas/LA border moving north towards Austin and it's pretty decent moisture too.



I thought you just said it came in well? lol

link?



It is! You can't really pay attention to the extreme "details" with this model. The main point is it's showing some decent moisture all around.


http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/


Ok thanks :). Not going to lie im pretty anxious for this event. I have been chatting it up for the last week with friends and co workers and if it doesnt pan out.... :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6207 Postby SouthernMet » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:13 am

brewskymc wrote:Massive virga storm setting up west of DFW :) ... I assume that it is virga since I don't see any current reports of snow out in that area.


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
924 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-031715-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
924 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH DECREASED VISIBILITIES THROUGH 11 AM CST. VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

This activity is moistening the columns and potentially setting the stage for the precip excpected tonight. Locations just west of I-35 are not out of the game yet.
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#6208 Postby Texas2Florida » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:16 am

I'm still just dumbfounded at this winter weather in the year of La Nina, I missed snowmageddon last February as I was in Daytona Beach for the 500..and it was cold, rainy and just awful there. Seems the biggest difference in the pattern for this year and last, is that Florida this time has been excluded from the nastiness.

And off the winter weather subject..wondering what this means for the upcoming Hurricane season..
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6209 Postby Brandon8181 » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:20 am

One thing about this winter weather and being off for three days in a row, it really makes me want to be a stay at home dad.

Really enjoying the extra time with my kids.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6210 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:21 am

txagwxman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Radar is starting to show a few snow flurry returns here in Travis County but I haven't heard any actual reports yet of observed snow. Probably virga.


Careful as you go up to kick that football, Portastorm. There's just not very much moisture so far inland (as you). I'm thinking less than an inch now.



There's not much moisture anywhere right now, hopefully the UKMET is right on some advecting in later...but that Corpus sounding looks atrocious.


Both of you ... stop that! Stop that right now!! You are going in the wrong direction.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6211 Postby txagwxman » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:22 am

There's not much moisture anywhere right now, hopefully the UKMET is right on some advecting in later...but that Corpus sounding looks atrocious.[/quote]

Both of you ... stop that! Stop that right now!! You are going in the wrong direction.[/quote]
Just bet on the UKMET.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6212 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:24 am

Impact Weather has updated their video...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6213 Postby iorange55 » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:26 am

Take it with a grain of salt, but this is the snowfall accumulation on the latest HRRR. It doesn't go out a long ways so this is not showing the entire event. Bunch of moisture is headed towards DFW just as the run ends.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6214 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:28 am

Hoping for snow in south central Texas turns one into an emotional windsock. :roll:

I did see that UKMET run this morning, txagwxman, and it looked promising. But the real-time obs from you and wxman57 are disturbing. It's hard to argue what is happening as compared to what some computer says will happen.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6215 Postby SouthernMet » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:30 am

Latest HRRR looking alot better for North Central Texas, Central Texas, and East Texas as moderate precip builds NNEward on the last frame. Has precip breaking out from San Angelo to Lufkin. And heaviest precip North of Austin to Tyler. Trends are trends. Consistent trends are worth more than salt.

EDIT: Sorry Iorange I guess I was late
Last edited by SouthernMet on Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6216 Postby iorange55 » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:31 am

SouthernMet wrote:Latest HRRR looking alot better for North Central Texas, Central Texas, and East Texas as moderate precip builds NNEward on the last frame. Has precip breaking out from San Angelo to Lufkin. And heaviest precip North of Austin to Tyler. Trends are trends. Consistent trends are worth more than salt.



And pepper?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6217 Postby SouthernMet » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:32 am

iorange55 wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:Latest HRRR looking alot better for North Central Texas, Central Texas, and East Texas as moderate precip builds NNEward on the last frame. Has precip breaking out from San Angelo to Lufkin. And heaviest precip North of Austin to Tyler. Trends are trends. Consistent trends are worth more than salt.



And pepper?


We shall see about the pepper
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#6218 Postby txtiff » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:44 am

The lates model out of the PWC has just finished its run.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6J1MhmQRV8
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#6219 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:44 am

Dew point rising and cloud deck lowering should not be long before we get some winter weather precipitation where I live... Current temp 28 and the dew point 19.
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#6220 Postby JenBayles » Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:45 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1031 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ACARS SOUNDINGS FOR KIAH/KHOU SUGGEST SNOW OR SLEET AS THE PRECIP
TYPE FOR THE HOUSTON AREA WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL WARM LAYERS
SHOWING UP. WE ALSO RECEIVED A RAOB FOR CLL WHICH SHOWS THE
ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW -4C CLEARLY SHOWING SNOW AS THE TYPE.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL TAKE A LONG TIME FOR
SATURATION TO OCCUR...WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND
TODAY AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST LOOK GOOD AND COULD BE A BIT
GENEROUS. HOWEVER...THE ONE THING DIFFERENTIATING THIS EVENT
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS ARE ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF ONLY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR...THE ROADS ARE VERY LIKELY TO BECOME
ICY AND HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE WARNING IN TACT. FOR FIRST PERIOD...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE AND ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.
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