Texas Winter 2010-2011

[austinrunner]

17Z HRRR looking through 2am tonight:
Travis county: 2 - 4 inches
Williamson county: 3 - 4 inches
Bexar county: 0.5 - 2 inches
Harris county: none - 2 inches far northwest, far northeast
Dallas county: none - 0.25 inches
Corpus, Brownsville: none

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... n=1&wjet=1

[Hook'em Horns!]

Well since schools close...hee hee...

I am betting a major bustola tomorrow. I just don't like what I am seeing on the radar trends...I hope I am wrong, but I think the NAM/GFS solution is correct, with less precipitation.

Also starting to sense this system may end up being a big bust for everyone. With the radar returns shouldn't we be seeing a little something kicking up by now?

[downsouthman1]

17Z HRRR looking through 2am tonight:
Travis county: 2 - 4 inches
Williamson county: 3 - 4 inches
Bexar county: 0.5 - 2 inches
Harris county: none - 2 inches far northwest, far northeast
Dallas county: none - 0.25 inches
Corpus, Brownsville: none

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... n=1&wjet=1

I dont' know how this can possibly occur. I'm not seeing the right trends on radar.

[Longhornmaniac8]

That HRRR looks really good for a wide swath of people, from Austin into East Texas.

Here's to hoping it pans out!

[Tejas89]

At least West Texas - Ozona to Ft. Stockton - is seeing snow. And Chihuahua, Mexico had 14 and snow earlier this morning.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap3.php?map=usa

[Rockets420]

The low is still in west texas. once it gets closer to central texas, then we will see the lift and more moisture being pulled. but as long as the low is still to the west of us, things will remain quiet.

[iorange55]

Well since schools close...hee hee...

I am betting a major bustola tomorrow. I just don't like what I am seeing on the radar trends...I hope I am wrong, but I think the NAM/GFS solution is correct, with less precipitation.

Also starting to sense this system may end up being a big bust for everyone. With the radar returns shouldn't we be seeing a little something kicking up by now?

I really don't think this will be a major bust. It was never supposed to start this early, least not the main event. The HRRR shows some light precip for the next few hours but then it really picks up. I believe that is what will happen overnight.

The HRRR did a decent job last storm (for us here in DFW) I have a hard time believing it'd be off by that much. It certainly might be but I'm definitely not ready to call it a bust.

[downsouthman1]

Well since schools close...hee hee...

I am betting a major bustola tomorrow. I just don't like what I am seeing on the radar trends...I hope I am wrong, but I think the NAM/GFS solution is correct, with less precipitation.

Also starting to sense this system may end up being a big bust for everyone. With the radar returns shouldn't we be seeing a little something kicking up by now?

I really don't think this will be a major bust. It was never supposed to start this early, least not the main event. The HRRR shows some light precip for the next few hours but then it really picks up. I believe that is what will happen overnight.

The HRRR did a decent job last storm (for us here in DFW) I have a hard time believing it'd be off by that much. It certainly might be but I'm definitely not ready to call it a bust.

You know, you're right. I had forgotten that the storm wasn't forecast to gain intensity until late afternoon/early evening. Any precipitation before that should be considered a bonus. I also forgot that when long & medium-range models 1st starting showing this disturbance, they showed precip in the lower pandhandle/permian basin, then no moisture, & then moisture returning as the ULL crept toward central TX. I guess we should just monitor radar trends & not feel down about the fact that this storm system is doing exactly what models have been saying it would do.

[SouthernMet]

The bulk precip wasn't suppose to start till 6pm as the low shifts out of NM/M we should see the radar begin to fill in no need to panic... yet

[txagwxman]

Well since schools close...hee hee...

I am betting a major bustola tomorrow. I just don't like what I am seeing on the radar trends...I hope I am wrong, but I think the NAM/GFS solution is correct, with less precipitation.

Also starting to sense this system may end up being a big bust for everyone. With the radar returns shouldn't we be seeing a little something kicking up by now?

Most models didn't have much until this evening...we will get something for sure, but unsure on these 3" total some people were talking about it.

[blaurence]

I am new here and I must say that I love this site. It is a great source of information as I am a weather lover...not anywhere near to the degree as the rest here. I am hoping for snow here in Houston. The Chronicle just had a chat with the Science Guy (Eric Berger) and Mark Mathiesen on their site that some in Houston may find interesting.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2011/02/post_212.html

Thanks for all of the information. This really is a fantastic place.

[Brandon8181]

The HRRR shows significant QPF over central Texas just south of DFW 6 hours from now - as that moves north I wonder if it will make it up to my area Sherman Denison?

I wonder if a 1/2 inch to 2 inch accumulation is possible. As another poster mentioned earlier, even a half inch would be enough to cause problems for north Texas.

Does anyone think this area of precip could make it all the way up into far North Texas?

[Texas MidCoaster]

This is a 12pm release from the NWS Corpus Christi. The show should start here around 6PM.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 5&source=0

[Hook'em Horns!]

Well since schools close...hee hee...

I am betting a major bustola tomorrow. I just don't like what I am seeing on the radar trends...I hope I am wrong, but I think the NAM/GFS solution is correct, with less precipitation.

Also starting to sense this system may end up being a big bust for everyone. With the radar returns shouldn't we be seeing a little something kicking up by now?

Most models didn't have much until this evening...we will get something for sure, but unsure on these 3" total some people were talking about it.

That will work...not picky here living in Central TX, would be tickled with even half an inch.

[DonWrk]

The HRRR shows significant QPF over central Texas just south of DFW 6 hours from now - as that moves north I wonder if it will make it up to my area Sherman Denison?

I wonder if a 1/2 inch to 2 inch accumulation is possible. As another poster mentioned earlier, even a half inch would be enough to cause problems for north Texas.

Does anyone think this area of precip could make it all the way up into far North Texas?

Yep every single flake would stick like glue and whiten everything up again. Just a small snowfall would cover the roads up. I'm wondering also if it is going to make it this far north. Yesterday Steve Lanore said there was decent chance at maybe 1/2 an inch or so.

[downsouthman1]

The HRRR shows significant QPF over central Texas just south of DFW 6 hours from now - as that moves north I wonder if it will make it up to my area Sherman Denison?

I wonder if a 1/2 inch to 2 inch accumulation is possible. As another poster mentioned earlier, even a half inch would be enough to cause problems for north Texas.

Does anyone think this area of precip could make it all the way up into far North Texas?

Do any other models backup the HRRR, or is it the outlier?

[iorange55]

Looks like the 18z NAM is wanting to give DFW 1-2 inches of snow.

Still don't think we'll get that much.

[orangeblood]

The HRRR shows significant QPF over central Texas just south of DFW 6 hours from now - as that moves north I wonder if it will make it up to my area Sherman Denison?

I wonder if a 1/2 inch to 2 inch accumulation is possible. As another poster mentioned earlier, even a half inch would be enough to cause problems for north Texas.

Does anyone think this area of precip could make it all the way up into far North Texas?

It's going to be close. Once that ULL gets to north Texas is starts to get sheared by the northern jet moving through. But I think the precip should stay together enough to make it up to the red river. Maybe dusting to half an inch!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[downsouthman1]

Looks like the 18z NAM is wanting to give DFW 1-2 inches of snow.

Still don't think we'll get that much.

Actually the 18Z NAM shows considerably more moisture than the 12Z did.

[iorange55]

Looks like the 18z NAM is wanting to give DFW 1-2 inches of snow.

Still don't think we'll get that much.

Actually the 18Z NAM shows considerably more moisture than the 12Z did.

Yes that is the `1-2 inches of snow. NAM wasn't showing near that much earlier. I still am not sure I believe it, though.