Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

February is an interesting month in Central America because it is the 3rd coldest month of the year in terms of minimum temperatures but it's the 4th warmest in terms of maximum temperatures. A summary of today's weather:
-Belize had above normal temperatures.
-Managua had its warmest maximum temperature of the year.
-La Esperanza and Choluteca in Honduras experienced their warmest maximum of the year.
-The rest of the region had a pretty average day.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.3°C (34.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.0°C (51.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.1°C (57.4°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.7°C (40.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.8°C (62.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (98.6°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Managua 27.5°C (81.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.3°C (52.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Driest January on record in St Croix

Distint from last year,this January was for the most part below normal in terms of the rainfall in the Eastern Caribbean.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=record012011

Code: Select all

Driest Januarys:
0.49” January 2011
0.54” January 1977
0.60” January 2009
0.63” January 1960
0.65” January 1980


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2011

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
COLD BRUSH THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. A SIMILAR PATTERN OF MOISTURE PATCHES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HOURS.SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR
COULD RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TJBQ AND TJMZ BTW 02/18Z-02/21Z. EXPECT LLVL EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS.

[Macrocane]

I've uodated the thread of Central American Cold Surges with the observations of the event that occured during the weekend, I've also posted a nice pic of the clouds over San Salvador on January 30.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Less drier weather as some scattered showers will move thru in the next few days.However,the fire danger continues.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST WED FEB 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...
FRAGMENTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
PROVIDE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
EASTERN CUBA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE GOVERNING
LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP GENERATED BY THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
THE RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL SUSTAIN A COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN
OVER WARMER WATERS TRIGGERING SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN PWAT BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INDUCED TROUGH WILL APPROACH TO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST...
GENERATING SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT DEFINITELY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN AROUND
PR. CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THERE. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PR THROUGH 03/02Z. A BAND OF MOISTURE ABOUT 200 MILES
WIDE IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OCNL MVFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED AT TNCM AND TKPK AFT 02/12Z LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH
02/20Z. LLVL WINDS ARE EAST NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 KTS. SFC WINDS AFT
02/14Z MAY GUST ABV 20 KT ALONG THE COASTS INCL TJBQ TJSJ AND TJPS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 6 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...OFF SHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH
COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTH SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A POSSIBILITY OF WILDFIRE FIRE DANGER. ALL
LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION AND
TO DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THE PROPER RECEPTACLES.
HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 81 72 / 30 30 30 30
STT 84 73 84 73 / 20 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

An earthquake has been reported this morning... 5.3 on Richter scale in the Northern Leewards given our latest news (12AM) from our journalists on R.C.I (International Caribbean Radio). A good shake have been felt by many people from the island.

[cycloneye]

An earthquake has been reported this morning... 5.3 on Richter scale in the Northern Leewards given our latest news (12AM) from our journalists on R.C.I (International Caribbean Radio). A good shake have been felt by many people from the island.

Gusty,I posted about the quake at the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Activity Thread at the Geology forum.

[cycloneye]

[b][
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST WED FEB 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...AND LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS HAS BEEN MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE STILL THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE CONTROLLING OUR LOCAL WEATHER. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 50
WEST LONGITUDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWEST
AND DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND FLOW...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TIME SERIES PLOTS
INDICATED PW VALUES WILL INCREASE UP TO 1.4 INCHES BY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WHICH MOST MODEL
INDICATING PW VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.0 INCH. IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...DOESN`T
EXPECT TOO MUCH ACTIVITY...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 69 82 / 20 20 30 30
STT 73 83 72 84 / 20 20 30 30

/b]

[Macrocane]

Temperatures in Central America today:
-Above average highs were experienced in the entire region except in Costa Rica and Nicaragua that had near average highs.
-Above average lows were registered in Belize, parts of Guatemala and Panama.
-Below average lows occured in Tegucigalpa and La Esperanza, Honduras.
-The rest of the countries had near normal lows.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.0°C (32.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.9°C (48.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 7°C (45°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.4°C (56.1°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.2°C (39.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.1°C (62.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.9°C (98.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Managua 26.9°C (80.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.6°C (79.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)

[Gustywind]

An earthquake has been reported this morning... 5.3 on Richter scale in the Northern Leewards given our latest news (12AM) from our journalists on R.C.I (International Caribbean Radio). A good shake have been felt by many people from the island.

Gusty,I posted about the quake at the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Activity Thread at the Geology forum.

Ok thanks my friend glad to see that. All my apologizes for that mistake Luis...

[cycloneye]

An earthquake has been reported this morning... 5.3 on Richter scale in the Northern Leewards given our latest news (12AM) from our journalists on R.C.I (International Caribbean Radio). A good shake have been felt by many people from the island.

Gusty,I posted about the quake at the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Activity Thread at the Geology forum.

Ok thanks my friend glad to see that. All my apologizes for that mistake Luis...

No problem at all my friend.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A change from the dry weather will occur this weekend as scattered showers will move thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST THU FEB 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION. BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PASSING
SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN INDUCED TROUGH WILL APPROACH TO THE LOCAL
AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THAT PRESENTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...CAUSING
A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT WEATHER REGIME. THE RELATIVELY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS YIELDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNINGS...LEADING TO A FEW
INTERIOR AND UPSLOPE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY EVENING
CLEARING. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL DROP LITTLE RAINFALL. WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY TRADES PERSISTING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...A
FEW NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE
OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MEANWHILE...A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THEN
FILL TO AN ELONGATED OPEN TROUGH. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FRESH
EASTERLY TRADES WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF AN INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
AS A RESULT...A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHWRS TO CONT ACROSS NE PR ISLANDS EAST WITH OCNL
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS PSBL TIST...TNCM...TKPK. LLVL WINDS NORTHEAST
10 TO 20 KT. AFT 03/16Z SHWRS WILL DVLP SW PR WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS
AND OCNL MVFR...BUT TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ SHOULD REMAIN VFR.


&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 6 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT ALONG THE LEEWARD COASTS. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 70 82 72 / 20 30 30 30
STT 83 72 84 75 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST THU FEB 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A MDT TO FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE TROP CNTRL
ATLC WILL FILL OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE WEST BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE WEST AND CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL TROP ATLC WILL RESULT
IN A COOL ADVECTION PATTERN OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MODELS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING EQUIV
POT VALUES AND K INDICES. ALL OF THESE SUGGEST THAT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE JUST BEFORE DAWN THEN SETTLE DOWN IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLD CVRG. FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY
OVR THE WEEKEND WITH YOUR TYPICAL EARLY MORNING SHRAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD AND ISOLD ACTIVITY OUT WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN THEME EARLY NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING TRADES AS STRONG SFC
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TIGHTENING THE PRES GRDAIENT. MOISTURE FCST
TO REMAIN SEASONABLY LOW WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.2 INCHES. SFC FLOW
WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US/WRN
ATLC ERODES CNTRL ATLC RIDGE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
JSJ/USVI TERMINALS AS SHRAS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...WNA MODEL OVERESTIMATING SEAS BY 2FT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ATLC WITH BUOY 41043 ONLY INDICATING SEAS OF 5 FT.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING TO 9 FT BY MON ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS SUSPECT MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO AGRESSIVE
AS MAINLY EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WAVE
SPECTRUM. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS TO 7 FT
ACROSS AMZ710 AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...88D AND 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOW SMOKE PLUMES/
HOTSPOTS OVR GUAYAMA. OTHER SMOKE PLUMES WERE SEEN OVER SANTA
ISABEL EARLIER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST THRU THE
AFTERNOON SPREADING SMOKE TO THE COASTLINE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW SUGGEST
THAT ANY FIRES TOMORROW WILL NOT BURN AS INTENSE AS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 83 / 30 30 30 30
STT 73 84 75 85 / 40 40 40 40

[Macrocane]

WARMEST TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR REGISTERED TODAY IN CENTRAL AMERICA

Today was a weird day in El Salvador:
-Above normal lows were registered in most of the country, but in San Miguel the low this morning was near average and in fact was cooler than San Salvador and that's a very rare occurrence.
-Above normal highs were experienced in most of the country except in the northern mountains that had near normal highs.
-San Miguel registered its warmest maximum temperature in almost 10 months becoming the warmest temp of the year in El Salvador and the warmest in Central America.

The temperatures in the rest of the countries:
-Above normal lows were experienced in Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.
-Near normal lows were experienced in Costa Rica.
-Near normal highs were registered in the whole region except Nicaragua and Honduras that had above average highs.


Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.7°C (36.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.8°C (53.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.3°C (57.7°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.8°C (38.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.6°C (61.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.8°C (101.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Managua 24.2°C (80.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.3°C (75.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.7°C (69.3°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 PM AST THU FEB 3 2011

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 17 KNOTS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AT AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE INCREASE THE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER VCSH OR -SHRA ANTICIPATED ACROSS TJSJ...TIST/TISX
AND TNCM OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SW
PORTIONS OF PR COULD RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND TJMZ BTW 04/18Z-04/21Z. EXPECT LLVL NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A more wet weekend is expected for some of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
633 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CUBA/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS THAT FAVORS A DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH-ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN
FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...PATCHES OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL BRING THE TYPICAL EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS...FOLLOWED
BY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SLIGHTLY
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.3 INCHES...REMAINING BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER VCSH OR -SHRA ANTICIPATED ACROSS TJSJ...TIST/TISX
THRU 04/14Z. SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE SW
PORTIONS OF PR. MTN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE ISLAND-WIDE THRU 05/04Z.
ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CONDS TO TNCM AND TKPK AFT 04/18Z. EXPECT LLVL
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 6 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT ALONG THE LEEWARD COASTS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED ON SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 74 / 50 40 40 40
STT 83 73 85 75 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI FEB 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVR THE BAHAMAS IS FCST TO RELOCATE TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MON MORNING. A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS ALSO TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRENGHTENING TRADES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE STRONGER TRADES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHRAS TO MAKE IT FURTHER WEST PERHAPS ALL THE WAY
TO THE WEST COAST AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...THE STRONG
FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THINGS GET QUITE MURKY
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS/GFES SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF ERN NOAM TROF WHICH HAS BIG IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE STRONG
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE THE 12Z GFS/GFES MEAN
SHOW COMPLETE EROSION OF IT AND DEVELOPMENT ON AN INVERTED SFC
TROF PATTERN. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHICH MODEL WILL VERIFY BETTER BUT
EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT MODELS TEND TO ERODE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY BUT
ON THE OTHER HAND THE `IMPROVED` ECMWF HAS PERFOMED POORLY SINCE
LAST FALL WITH THE GFS OUTPERFORMING OTHER MODELS AT LONGER LEAD
TIMES. FOR NOW THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP FOR JSJ/IST BETWEEN 0Z-11Z FOR SHRA AND MVFR CIGS. WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH GUSTS 25-30KT DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD INCREASE OVR THE WEEKEND AS TRADES
INCREASE. SEAS 6-8 FT IN EASTERLY GENERATED WIND WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH QUIETER TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD CVR.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVR THE WEEKEND AS TRADES
INCREASE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
AND THUS IN HEIGHTENED OR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. FUELS
REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ALMOST DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 73 84 / 50 50 50 50
STT 74 84 76 85 / 30 30 10 20

[cycloneye]

There was a quake on Friday morning in the Southern Windward Islands.For the details go to the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Activity thread

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST FRI FEB 4 2011

.UPDATE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME
TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CONCENTRATE OVER
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM
GRIDS TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS

[Macrocane]

Today (February 4) the northern half of the region (Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador) had cooler minimum temperatures than yesterday (especially the high areas) but the maximum were similar to yesterday (pretty warm). The other half had similar temps to yesterday or a little warmer like Managua that had its warmest low so far this year. Tomorrow minimum temperatures may be slightly cooler as relatively cool air has pushed a cold front down to the Yucatan peninsula.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.4°C (34.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.6°C (47.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20°C (68°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.8°C (56.8°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.6°C (38.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.4°C (59.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.6°C (74.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38°C (100°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Managua 23.9°C (75.0°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.6°C (52.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.8°C (69.4°F)