Reasoning for the "losing" of #9

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Stormsfury
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Reasoning for the "losing" of #9

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Aug 22, 2003 8:16 pm

Well ... only speculation by my part and hope some of the professionals will input on this thread ... but I see two factors, well actually three...

1) Undercutting shear ...
2) No LLC initialized (thus b/c there isn't one at this time)
3) Hispanola - are the models able to ingest this landmass with some accuracy? - based on the last 24 hours, it seems like it does -

Comments are more than welcome ...

SF
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ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Aug 22, 2003 8:19 pm

Mid level circulations can survive mountainous terrain and then once over the warm waters northwest or north, in this case can reach the surface.

If a low level circulation was at least close 12 to 24 hours ago then all the more reason it is possible with what is presently there.
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Aug 22, 2003 8:35 pm

What struck some intrigue was the fact that the GFDL and SHIPS/DSHPS were latching onto #9 while it was still an invest, but since #9 was officially christened, suddenly the model intensity forecasts went the other way and lost the system.
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:32 pm

One thing I'm absolutely POSITIVE about is that is wasn't dry air

http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

But definitely some undercutting shear ...

SF
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