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JenBayles wrote:JGrin87 wrote:JenBayles wrote:Granted, I'm no pro or even a knowledgeable amateur, but what "moisture pooling" are you looking at? All I see is more and more dry air being dragged into TX and pushing what moisture existed along the coast farther east.
I agree, Can someone please answer this question?
Any takers?
UPPER LOW NOW APPROACHING THE TRANS-PECOS WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL LIFT WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. DEPTH OF UPGLIDE
WILL INCREASE...EVENTUALLY LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR...AS LIGHT SNOW
IS FINALLY ABLE TO PENETRATE THE SURFACE LAYER. WACO IS CURRENTLY
WITHIN PROGGED SWATH OF 2- TO 3-INCH SNOWFALL. METRO TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE SNOWFALL...ON
ORDER OF 1-INCH ACCUMULATION. BUT WITH HEAVIER TOTALS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 18Z NAM PROGGING SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT
FURTHER NORTH...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE METROPLEX. THE WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL AT TAF SITES REMAINS 2-3 AM
CST THROUGH LATE MORNING.
Ntxw wrote:^ I'm not sure what the question is. Are you asking how the precip is going to blossom and come out of nowhere when the wv shows dry air?
orangeblood wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:iorange I told him this: " Uhhh John the winter weather advisory doesn't go into effect until 6 pm and the models start the snow at 12 am.". And he replied: "Glad to see you take the models as gospel, Justin. Keep that up and I don't have to worry about anybody taking my job anytime soon...oh, and the National Weather Service Office here has been one of the worst I've ever seen... most of them hug the models like its their mommy too".
This is all on facebook btw. I was shocked at his response...
Wow!! Please let me know what his response is once he notices those radar returns start picking up around 9 pm tonight and it starts to accumulate shortly thereafter.
Longhornmaniac8 wrote:Ntxw wrote:^ I'm not sure what the question is. Are you asking how the precip is going to blossom and come out of nowhere when the wv shows dry air?
I believe so. I'm a little curious, myself.
Longhornmaniac8 wrote:Ntxw wrote:^ I'm not sure what the question is. Are you asking how the precip is going to blossom and come out of nowhere when the wv shows dry air?
I believe so. I'm a little curious, myself.
Longhornmaniac8 wrote:I believe so. I'm a little curious, myself.
It hasn't shifted. As said before, follow the upper level low. Currently it is forecasted to move from the Big Bend area into SE Oklahoma (pretty much the same track it was forecasted days ago). It will provide the extra lift for precip in the upper levels. However the lower levels up north is extremely dry. Incoming gulf moisture is working it's way north, where the two meet has always been the prime spot. It's taken awhile but it seems CLL region as of now looks hot.
Agreed. The change hasn't been the track of the low. If you go back and look to the 00Z WED chart...the low is pretty much in the same place at 18Z tomorrow. What has changed is the moisture availability. The dry air is too much to overcome over SE TX. You can see it in the ceilings.
As a rule of thumb...you expect heavy snow left of the track of the 500mb vort center. How far left depends on the strength of the vort max. However, if you have no moisture...then you won't get it. The dynamics were always ripe for the N/Cntl TX area to get snow...but now there is moisture to work with.
I smell a bust as well in the SE TX area. I've been feeling less and less confident about it since I reviewed my forecast rules yesterday...and really took a hard look at the dry air.
Another thing of note: We are still getting dry air advection in the lower levels here. If precip doesn't begin and CONTINUE...then the atmosphere loses its battle to moisten up...which is what needs to happen for snow. Looking at the VV's at 850 and even at 500...gonna be a tough road to hoe.
One last comment: There has been talk of mesobands...etc. I think we can officially put that talk away. The dry slot that is coming in, starting midnight, at 500mb will essentially kill any hope of mesobands. You cannot produce mesobands with a dry layer from 500 MB and above.
txagwxman wrote:Longhornmaniac8 wrote:Ntxw wrote:^ I'm not sure what the question is. Are you asking how the precip is going to blossom and come out of nowhere when the wv shows dry air?
I believe so. I'm a little curious, myself.
When a short-wave trough pushes it creates vorticity advection which causes vertical motion. That should lift the air up and cause precip to break out...i have seen thunderstorms break out in dry air on the water vapor before, so it can be misleading.
However, I am leaning to the drier side...1" NW side of Houston, 1/2" Houston at best.
jasons wrote:I saw a WV loop just now on KPRC and at the very end of the loop, in the middle of the dry slot, it started to show color again and expanding in a pool in WC Texas towards San Angelo. If that's the case, Central and into NC Texas may get a decent snowfall....
Brandon8181 wrote:orangeblood wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:iorange I told him this: " Uhhh John the winter weather advisory doesn't go into effect until 6 pm and the models start the snow at 12 am.". And he replied: "Glad to see you take the models as gospel, Justin. Keep that up and I don't have to worry about anybody taking my job anytime soon
This is all on facebook btw. I was shocked at his response...
Wow!! Please let me know what his response is once he notices those radar returns start picking up around 9 pm tonight and it starts to accumulate shortly thereafter.
What is the facebook page and this guys name? I want to see this.
txagwxman wrote:Wow!! Please let me know what his response is once he notices those radar returns start picking up around 9 pm tonight and it starts to accumulate shortly thereafter.
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