Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txtiff]

I am sure Jerry Jones never thought of this happening while drawing up the plans for the staduim.

Hope everyone is okay.

[Brandon8181]

SNowing heavy again in sherman as this last moderate wave moves southwest to northeast.

[newtotex]

I saw earlier where someone was talking about a mini ice age...could this be because of the volcnic activity we've had this year? With the one in Iceland, and I believe another one..can't that cause temps to drop? Just a thought

[DonWrk]

Still getting heavy snow!

[AggieSpirit]

My new way of determining how much snow North Central Texas will get a couple days out--

If the TV weathermen say a dusting to less than an inch, we will be buried in at least 3 inches of snow, and as seen before -- up to a foot.

If they say we are going to have a heavy snowfall, with lots of accumulation, expect a mere dusting if anything.

That's just the way it works in North Central Texas. It's pretty simple really --- Harold Taft was right. Don't forecast it until you see it falling.

[AggieSpirit]

I saw earlier where someone was talking about a mini ice age...could this be because of the volcnic activity we've had this year? With the one in Iceland, and I believe another one..can't that cause temps to drop? Just a thought

Al Gore said the other day that these storms are caused by global warming. No matter what happens, clearly, it's cause lies solely in man made global warming. Colder? Warmer? Hotter? Wetter? Drier? Flood? Drought? All caused by global warming. But calling it climate change pretty much covers any weather changes, regularities, or irregularities. Either way -- you people with your SUV's and your 72 degree thermostats are destroying the planet. You ought to be ashamed of yourselves.

Quit listening to that junk science about volcanoes, a lack of solar activity/sunspots, or natural orbital patterns causing the changes we see. That kind of crap is funded by grants from BP, Shell, Exxon, and Connoco Phillips anyways. Especially avoid nutcases like this guy -- http://www.iceagenow.com . Hopefully, the government can one day shut down that site.

I'm going outside in just my swimsuit to assuage my guilt about driving a 21 MPG vehicle. I deserve the punishment of repetitive snow angels created by my bare and exposed skin.

[newtotex]

I saw earlier where someone was talking about a mini ice age...could this be because of the volcnic activity we've had this year? With the one in Iceland, and I believe another one..can't that cause temps to drop? Just a thought

Al Gore said the other day that these storms are caused by global warming. No matter what happens, clearly, it's cause lies solely in man made global warming. Colder? Warmer? Hotter? Wetter? Drier? Flood? Drought? All caused by global warming. But calling it climate change pretty much covers any weather changes, regularities, or irregularities. Either way -- you people with your SUV's and your 72 degree thermostats are destroying the planet. You ought to be ashamed of yourselves.

Quit listening to that junk science about volcanoes, a lack of solar activity/sunspots, or natural orbital patterns causing the changes we see. That kind of crap is funded by grants from BP, Shell, Exxon, and Connoco Phillips anyways. Especially avoid nutcases like this guy -- http://www.iceagenow.com . Hopefully, the government can one day shut down that site.

I'm going outside in just my swimsuit to assuage my guilt about driving a 21 MPG vehicle. I deserve the punishment of repetitive snow angels created by my bare and exposed skin.

Haha aite

[Tejas89]

Sun is now winning the battle in Arlington... All in all Jerry got really lucky this didn't happen Sunday!

[downsouthman1]

2 things.

1) The reason that this snow is melting so fast while the temp is sub-freezing must have something to do with the warm layer aloft.

2) Where I live, where the snow melt has occurred, there is a red tint on everything. I believe it to be NM or West TX dirt, sucked up into the atmosphere, dropped as freezing rain & sleet. The pattern was even more eerily similar to a spring squall line. You guys up north, whenever your snow finally melts to expose the ice, should see this red film on everything. It is very gross. Also, since we got ice under our snow, as the snow melts, exposing the ice, travel is even more treacherous.

Actually 3 things: Cowboys Stadium was designed with a rain catch surrounding the lower edge of the roof line. You can see it if you look closely to the video. However, it was designed as a rain catch. As snow/sleet is solid, the catch filled up, so the avalanche-like fall of ice that occurs, goes right over the rain catch.

[Ntxw]

The sun is out now and it's helping with some melting. However it may win the battle for now, doesn't seem like it will win the war. Clear night tonight and light winds will probably make it the coldest morning this week. The polar vortex (ULL) has picked up the remaining frigid air with it until the next one arrives.

[funster]

2 things.

1) The reason that this snow is melting so fast while the temp is sub-freezing must have something to do with the warm layer aloft.

2) Where I live, where the snow melt has occurred, there is a red tint on everything. I believe it to be NM or West TX dirt, sucked up into the atmosphere, dropped as freezing rain & sleet. The pattern was even more eerily similar to a spring squall line. You guys up north, whenever your snow finally melts to expose the ice, should see this red film on everything. It is very gross. Also, since we got ice under our snow, as the snow melts, exposing the ice, travel is even more treacherous.

Actually 3 things: Cowboys Stadium was designed with a rain catch surrounding the lower edge of the roof line. You can see it if you look closely to the video. However, it was designed as a rain catch. As snow/sleet is solid, the catch filled up, so the avalanche-like fall of ice that occurs, goes right over the rain catch.

Saw that in the video of Cowboys Stadium. Poor design I guess - winter was not even considered in the design plan. They are currently having to keep everyone 80 feet away from the stadium, but they wont be able to do that on Sunday.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41402775/ns/weather/

[downsouthman1]

Something else, since we have time to talk now, in between storms.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

I've been looking at WV loops to gain understanding on how the "wake" of one ULL feeds another (trowaling). I've been tracking this for quite some time. Since the upper air pattern changed considerably, I think I'm still in line with saying no more nor'easters. Again, keep in mind I didn't say no more northeast snow. With the newer pattern, the trough has shifted west. It's currently elongating. That being said, it would appear to me that the storm mid-next week could possibly track along the west side of the southern rockies & head pretty far south into old Mexico & then start traveling east. If the trough stays elongated, it's possible the ULL will travel so far south across old Mexico that when it heads east, it gives us no precip. Or if it tracks further north, plenty of precip could fall in deep south Texas from Brownsville to San Antonio. I'm using the word precip, because though I think I'm becoming decent at predicting the paths of ULLs, I suck with cold air. Back to the "wakes", the "wake of our ULL now stretches all the way out into the Pacific & is split into 2 bands of dry air aloft. I'm still trying to understand how these "wakes" will affect the next southward traveling ULL.
Not an official forecast!

[newtotex]

The sun is out now and it's helping with some melting. However it may win the battle for now, doesn't seem like it will win the war. Clear night tonight and light winds will probably make it the coldest morning this week. The polar vortex (ULL) has picked up the remaining frigid air with it until the next one arrives.

What are thinking the low range will be? I know for my area, 15 is suppost to be the low tonight, I have a hard time thinking that it will be that high

[gboudx]

2) Where I live, where the snow melt has occurred, there is a red tint on everything. I believe it to be NM or West TX dirt, sucked up into the atmosphere, dropped as freezing rain & sleet. The pattern was even more eerily similar to a spring squall line. You guys up north, whenever your snow finally melts to expose the ice, should see this red film on everything. It is very gross. Also, since we got ice under our snow, as the snow melts, exposing the ice, travel is even more treacherous.

I noticed the red tint when I was shoveling it earlier. I wondered what it was, but didn't think about it being the West Tx dirt.

[txagwxman]

Well I drove to Navasota looking for snow...I didn't see much...but there are trace amounts near Magnolia, and more in Plantersville on the ground---roads are fine.

[Metalicwx220]

]

We'll need to keep an eye on the northern stream energy. If we can get that piece to die out and not be so much of a factor until the east coast, I think we stand a chance. H5 maps look good, with that kind of ridging I don't like the GFS' progressive nature (it does have that tendency). I think it will dig a little more than that.

BTW for all those wanting to get excited (optimism here). Take a look at this blizzard on the GFS.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1654/gfspcp240m.gif

I can't find this map this far out. Do you know where to access it?

Look here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml

Choose the model run time (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, or 18Z). Choose the panel size (course, medium or fine) according to your monitor size (medium works well for a 19-24" monitor). Then choose from either the "10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn" column or click the link at the top to go to the upper-air GFS graphics and choose from the "MSLP 1000 - 500mb" column.

I also like to look at the twister site for GFS snow accumulation maps. Go here:
http://www.twisterdata.com/

Click the "GFS" tab up top and open the "Winter" section in the left navigation frame. Choose "snow depth" from the list of winter panels then navigate to the hour you want to look at. In addition, this map is clickable to produce an atmospheric sounding for wherever you click on the map.[/quote][/quote]

[txagwxman]

My new way of determining how much snow North Central Texas will get a couple days out--

If the TV weathermen say a dusting to less than an inch, we will be buried in at least 3 inches of snow, and as seen before -- up to a foot.

If they say we are going to have a heavy snowfall, with lots of accumulation, expect a mere dusting if anything.

That's just the way it works in North Central Texas. It's pretty simple really --- Harold Taft was right. Don't forecast it until you see it falling.

Precipitation forecasts will always be the toughest thing to forecast...don't hound on the weatherman too much. Forecasting the weather is extremely difficult and takes a trained eye looking at every possible situation.

[txagwxman]

I saw earlier where someone was talking about a mini ice age...could this be because of the volcnic activity we've had this year? With the one in Iceland, and I believe another one..can't that cause temps to drop? Just a thought

Nope just cold weather...

La Nina helped cool the planet down after a record breaking 2010. AO/NAO have been strongly negative for months probably in response to the strong warming across the N. Atlantic/N. Pole---not sure though.

[downsouthman1]

I saw earlier where someone was talking about a mini ice age...could this be because of the volcnic activity we've had this year? With the one in Iceland, and I believe another one..can't that cause temps to drop? Just a thought

Nope just cold weather...

La Nina helped cool the planet down after a record breaking 2010. AO/NAO have been strongly negative for months probably in response to the strong warming across the N. Atlantic/N. Pole---not sure though.

So is it safe to assume that what goes on in the arctic (AO) & Atlantic (NAO) are more important to us than what goes on in the Pacific (ENSO, La Nina)? Or is it all used in unison? It just seems that the AO/NAO are currently having more influence on us than La Nina.

[SouthernMet]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 PM CST FRI FEB 4 2011

.MODELS ARE COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A SYSTEM
EXPECTED SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
NEAR SUNRISE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ENOUGH FORCING WITH
THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE THERMAL PROFILE...BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WILL SEE SOME
POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW. HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW WILL GO AND HOW
COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IS STILL IN QUESTION. FOR NOW
WILL MENTION LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE METROPLEX. THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DROPS
SOUTH. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY AND PRECIP IN
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. EXPECT RAIN INITIALLY WITH
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF DYNAMICS AND THE
COLD AIR. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS AS THE ECM AND GEM SOLUTIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO THE PATTER THAT
OCCURRED TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT APPEAR NEARLY AS COLD. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED