Texas Winter 2010-2011

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Anyone think parts of NTX will be placed under a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight/tomorrow's system?
I think it'd be a smart move with all the events and influx of people in the area due to the Super Bowl, but then again maybe we don't want people to panic...especially after this weeks weather events.
I'm sure Southern Oklahoma will be placed under one..

[wall_cloud]

so what is up with the "not official forecast" lines in posts? Was there some confusion in the past?

The mods ask you do it when you make a specific forecast. If you're not a pro. I think they just do it to be safe.

hmmmm...I guess I don't know what makes a forecast official. A forecast is simply a prediction.

[snow4444]

This midweek system is going to be GREAT for DFW iam excited!!!!

[gboudx]

We went out to the Lake Ray Hubbard shoreline to snap some pics. I'm guessing the lake has a layer of ice about 40-50' from the shore. Here's a pic. We live in the northern part of Rockwall County, about 3 miles from the northern-most shore of Ray Hubbard.

[orangeblood]

This midweek system is going to be GREAT for DFW iam excited!!!!

Great ??? Depends on what your perspective is. This could cause major travel issues across a widespread area of the state. And with already depleted resources due to this last event, many more issues could arise this time around.

[Aquaria]

Will the potential Wednesday weather be an issue south of I20?

[Ntxw]

Will the potential Wednesday weather be an issue south of I20?

NWS FW mentioned it would be virtually all of North Texas area forecast. Their CWA covers parts of West Texas down to Waco east to some western Tyler suburbs. My assumption would be yes.

[southerngale]

I haven't paid much attention to the forecast today as I've been trying to catch up on a gazillion things I got behind on while starting incessantly at model runs for days on end, but I just saw my forecast for this week...

Wednesday Night: Rain or freezing drizzle likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Really?

If we're gonna get something frozen, why can't it be snow? The freezing drizzle Thursday and Friday caused a lot of problems.


*dreams of laying by the pool in the hot sun*

[SouthernMet]

Bit from FTW NWS

THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...MUCH LIKE
THE SYSTEM WE SAW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW FOR MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

[Ntxw]

Our next big storm is that stream off energy moving up the west coast ridge lurking...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[brewskymc]

This midweek system is going to be GREAT for DFW iam excited!!!!

Great ??? Depends on what your perspective is. This could cause major travel issues across a widespread area of the state. And with already depleted resources due to this last event, many more issues could arise this time around.

No doubt. As much as I love extreme winter weather events (which have been rare here since the 70's - that is, until these past few winters), we are not equipped to handle them here in the metroplex and they cause a lot of hardship. I have logged 70+ hours here at the university (with additional time spent working remotely) since this started early on Tuesday. Driving back and forth from Rowlett to SMU on the ice was not that much fun after the first time... especially on precious few hours of sleep. I'm ready for a break from this stuff until next year.

[hurrican19]

It's a toasty 68 degrees outside today here! Unbelievable! We go from 70 hours below freezing to almost 70 in less than 24 hours! Only in Texas!

[Ntxw]

Gosh, I have never seen FW commit to such confidence in snow this far out EVER.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain before midnight, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: Snow likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 28. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Toasty 53 at DFW airport this hour. Much of the snow is gone except in patches. The Superbowl should've been today!

Meanwhile the GFS continues to trend wetter and wetter each run. iorange55's foot of snow chances is increasing by the hour.

[southerngale]

After a low of 21°, it's warmed up to 53° here and it feels like a heat wave.

It's still cold in my house though, and I have portable heaters going. My birdbath is still frozen, but it started melting on the edges. It was a ROCK, having been frozen all week. It's situated in the shade so it usually melts last when everything freezes.

Another freeze forecast for tonight, but not a hard freeze. Only 31° expected.

[Turtle]

NWS Shrevport Discussion:

THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER MOISTURE
SUPPORT AND MODEL THICKNESS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MIXTURE
OF WINTER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AT THIS TIME...
WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE I-20 WITH RAIN AND
SLEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW
AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WHICH WERE
THE WARM OUTLIERS YESTERDAY...HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY
AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE OUR THIRD BIG SNOW MAKER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES IN LESS THAN A MONTH`S TIME. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING MEX MOS TEMPERATURES
WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF ANOTHER DESCENT SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

[iorange55]

Meanwhile the GFS continues to trend wetter and wetter each run. iorange55's foot of snow chances is increasing by the hour.

I'm noticing that, lol. We might actually get a lot of snow, man. What a winter I have a lot of friends saying "I'm glad it's all over now" and I keep telling them watch out for Wednesday but they just brush it off "Oh it won't happen agian"


....well.

[Ntxw]

I'm noticing that, lol. We might actually get a lot of snow, man. What a winter I have a lot of friends saying "I'm glad it's all over now" and I keep telling them watch out for Wednesday but they just brush it off "Oh it won't happen agian"


....well.

12z GFS had 6-8 inches of snow for eastern DFW. 18z GFS looks more like 8-10 with a foot possible very nearby. Yikes...it looks to be another cold snow, likely in the 20s.

Here's the map for 12z



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(note, wxcaster maps does not include snow already on the ground)

[Portastorm]

so what is up with the "not official forecast" lines in posts? Was there some confusion in the past?

The mods ask you do it when you make a specific forecast. If you're not a pro. I think they just do it to be safe.

hmmmm...I guess I don't know what makes a forecast official. A forecast is simply a prediction.

During times of severe weather (regardless of season), Storm 2K has an increased visibility with a number of people who pay close attention to every post made. We want to be certain that especially those people not familiar with the familiar characters here know the difference between a real forecast (an educated prediction as you might say) from a real professional meteorologist like wall_cloud or txagwxman or Wxman57 or Air Force Met as compared to an amateur forecast from a Portastorm or Ntxw or irorange55. I don’t mean to offend anyone but think of it as separating the “chaff from the wheat.” Don’t get me wrong, we have some excellent amateur weather enthusiasts on this forum. But especially during times of severe weather, we believe it is important to separate the two so there are no doubts for people. The disclaimer, if I’m not mistaken, actually became necessary during a tropical season where we had multiple self-proclaimed “experts” and regular folks who assumed some of their forecasts for intensity and landfall of a particular named system were going to be accurate. Within those forecasts in some cases were considerable criticism and scoffing at official National Hurricane Center forecasts. Yes, you would think it may go without saying that folks should realize the difference, but some don’t. That is why we added the necessity of the disclaimer.

I hope this helps clarify the need for the disclaimer.

[downsouthman1]

I actually mentioned the red tint on Page 360, Friday, Feb 4, 2011. I thought I mentioned it 1st because I didn't see anyone else talk about it, though it's possible I'm wrong about being 1st. I was hoping someone else would comment on what I wrote, but no 1 ever did. I knew that that was just because yall's snow hadn't melted yet. Here's a quote about what I wrote: "Where I live, where the snow melt has occurred, there is a red tint on everything. I believe it to be NM or West TX dirt, sucked up into the atmosphere, dropped as freezing rain & sleet. The pattern was even more eerily similar to a spring squall line. You guys up north, whenever your snow finally melts to expose the ice, should see this red film on everything. It is very gross."

[Portastorm]

I actually mentioned the red tint on Page 360, Friday, Feb 4, 2011. I thought I mentioned it 1st because I didn't see anyone else talk about it, though it's possible I'm wrong about being 1st. I was hoping someone else would comment on what I wrote, but no 1 ever did. I knew that that was just because yall's snow hadn't melted yet. Here's a quote about what I wrote: "Where I live, where the snow melt has occurred, there is a red tint on everything. I believe it to be NM or West TX dirt, sucked up into the atmosphere, dropped as freezing rain & sleet. The pattern was even more eerily similar to a spring squall line. You guys up north, whenever your snow finally melts to expose the ice, should see this red film on everything. It is very gross."

It will be interesting to see if we all get the dirt-flavored snow/ice when the next winter storm rolls through Tuesday-Wednesday. The official Portastorm Weather Center chase vehicle is in dire need of a bath.