Well, the snow is almost completely gone and it is raining outside currently...but that is okay, lake effect fans! Because tomorrow evening, the rain is supposed to change over to snow and the lake effect is supposed to pick back up until Thursday night (this was the storm I mentioned last week they were beginning to talk about). This time, however, conditions are expected to be even more favorable for heavy lake effect than last week's system. Currently, the thinking is that my portion of Jefferson will be under the gun, and I expect that we will be put under a LES Warning (a LES Watch was posted during today's afternoon update). I have good confidence atm that we will be hit even harder than last time, as an earlier check of the models showed the band over us from about 11 pm Wednesday night until 5 pm Thursday evening. However, as mentioned in the watch, even the slightest change in forecast wind direction can be the difference between 12"+ and a dusting.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010
NYZ007-008-010345-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.A.0005.101202T0000Z-101203T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
237 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
* LOCATIONS: JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY.
* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: MAY EXCEED ONE FOOT WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST.
* IMPACTS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.
* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A SMALL CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION MAY CARRY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FARTHER NORTH INTO
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY OR FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO
BE FOUND AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.
&&
$$
And here is the 316 pm AFD talking about the LES event. The worst will be tomorrow evening into Thursday night...with light lake effect snows carrying on throughout the weekend and into the beginning of next week (with perhaps an increase in the strength of the snows):
TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND DURING WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
FOLLOWS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE TIGHT 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT ALSO
SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C IN THE WEST AROUND
DAYBREAK AND TO -7C BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE WEST WILL
COME TO AN END DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL SHOW A MIX AND
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THIS WILL SET UP THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...850MB TEMPS FALL TO
0C AROUND NOON AND TO A -5C TO -7C RANGE LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE
FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. LAKE SNOWS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL HELP TO PRODUCED A PROLONGED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF -8
TO -10C AIR OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. LOCAL RESEARCH HAS
SHOWN THAT THIS PATTERN FAVORS MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONGEVITY OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY
BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. THE LAKE ERIE DETAILS...
A 250 FLOW OF -8C AIR OVER LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL DIRECT A
WELL ORGANIZED PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERIE COUNTY
TO WYOMING AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY. OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PLACING THE AXIS OF THE
BAND IN THE VCNTY OF THE `SOUTHTOWNS` OF CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY...WITH
THE REGIONAL GEM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH OF THE PACKAGES (NR BUF TO
BATAVIA). THIS PLACEMENT IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHERE GUIDANCE HAD THE
BAND DURING THE LAST EVENT. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND
REGIONAL GEM FOR OUR INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...WITH 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM ABOUT HAMBURG TO
ORCHARD PARK TO ATTICA AND THE HILLS OF SRN GEN COUNTY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE ON STATION 6KM MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PLACEMENT (SOUTHTOWNS).
THERMODYNAMICALLY...LICAPES WILL AVERAGE 300-400 J/KG WITH AN
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (CAP) JUST UNDER 10K FT. THE AIRMASS UNDER THIS
CAP IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE IN IT THAN THE LAST EVENT WITH
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA FORECAST TO BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS THE P TYPE...UNLIKE THE LAST
EVENT THAT FEATURED PLENTY OF GRAUPEL. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH GRAUPEL INVOLVED IN THE CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN PRESENT THE
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE WITHIN ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE LAKE.
AS MENTIONED...THE SNOWBAND IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD SO LITTLE MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OVER THE
SOUTHTOWNS WITH SOME ACCUMS WORKING SOUTH TO SKI COUNTRY AND
NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE INSTABILITY AND CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.
SHIFTING OUR ATTENTION TO LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT...
A SIMILAR 250 FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH -8C H85
AIR PRODUCING LICAPES OF 300-400 J/KG AND A CAP OF ABOUT 10K FT. IT
WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY FOR THE
LAKE ONTARIO CONVECTION TO GET ORGANIZED...SO A GENERAL SNOWFALL OF
AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF LK ONTARIO IN THE EVENING
BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TAKES SHAPE. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL APPROACH
6 INCHES FROM THE TUG HILL NORTHEASTWARDS. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT.
FOR THURSDAY...A 260 TO 270 FLOW OFF LK ONTARIO WILL AIM THE MAIN
SNOW BAND AT THE TUG HILL REGION AND AWAY FROM THE WATERTOWN METRO
AREA. SNOW ACCUMS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 6 INCHES ON THE TUG
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. LIKE THE ACTIVITY OFF LK ERIE...THE CAP
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THURSDAY. SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE
BANDS WITH NO ACCUMS ANTICIPATED. TEMPS REGIONWIDE WILL AVERAGE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE FLOW BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
STEADY LAKE SNOWS SETTLING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OFF LK ERIE AS THE LAKE SNOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP WELL INTO SKI COUNTRY. FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND...THE FLOW
WILL ONLY VEER TO ABOUT 270-280 DEG...SO THE SOUTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD
ONLY TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TUG. SIGNIFICANT 12 HOUR SNOW
ACCUMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OFF EACH LAKE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT..WITH THE
GREATEST ACCUMS COMING EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION COULD EXPERIENCE A
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWER DURING ITS PASSAGE WITH CONTINUED...MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A STRONG GREENLAND BLOCK
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN INITIALLY AND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING COLD WEATHER OVER OUR REGION. SOME
DETAILS....
A TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...
BUT A LOWER CAP AND A LESS FAVORABLE FETCH SHOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMS
TO A MINIMUM. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD
THE OCCASIONAL FLURRY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
A STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING IS
DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO DEEPEN AND RETROGRADE BACK
ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION WHILE ALSO STARING TO CIRCULATE A
WEALTH OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS GOING SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WITH ALL OTHER AREAS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL CIRCULATE OVER OUR OPEN LAKES.
-- End Changed Discussion --