Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Texas Snowman]

OKC NWS graphic for Wednesday's storm. Looks like the Red River counties could really be under the gun for some big snow totals.

Also, look at those wind chills in western Oklahoma and NW Texas...minus 5 to minus 20?!?

Wowza.

[northtxboy]

OKC NWS graphic for Wednesday's storm. Looks like the Red River counties could really be under the gun for some big snow totals.

Also, look at those wind chills in western Oklahoma and NW Texas...minus 5 to minus 20?!?

Wowza.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages ... 1296994628

I live In fannin county up by the red river but I do think they are wrong about who is going to get the heavy snow,,,I think it will be more south than that by about 150 miles

[gboudx]

Ok, so I'm up here in Sherman at my mom's and I turn on the weather and they say we're under a winter weather advisory? Is there any chance this front today could turn into more than we thought?

From the NWS website, no one in the CWA is under a WWA currently. Only a SWS has been issued concerning the mid-week system. Maybe they expect Sherman to go under a WWA later, which could be possible due to expected sleet and snow.

[DentonGal]

OKC NWS graphic for Wednesday's storm. Looks like the Red River counties could really be under the gun for some big snow totals.

Also, look at those wind chills in western Oklahoma and NW Texas...minus 5 to minus 20?!?

Wowza.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages ... 1296994628

I live In fannin county up by the red river but I do think they are wrong about who is going to get the heavy snow,,,I think it will be more south than that by about 150 miles

ummmm....that could put Denton in the bullseye!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z's have started with some important dropsonde data from Winter RECON missions. Hopefully all the flip flopping will settle down in the American model world and we will get a bit better picture of what the week will bring...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sun Feb 6 13:42:09 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 061342
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1337Z SUN FEB 06 2011
THE 12Z NAM STARTED ON TIME WITH 31 CANADIAN...13 MEXICAN AND 10
CARIBBEAN STATIONS AVBL FOR INGEST. THERE WERE 10
DROPSONDE...ANCHORAGE C-130 DATA...REPORTS RECEIVED...5 OF WHICH
WERE INGESTED INTO THE NAM.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
UIL/72797 - DELETED TEMPS/MOISTURE/HEIGHTS 739-701 MB...
TEMPS TOO COLD.
TAE/72214 - DELETED TEMPS/MOISTURE/HEIGHTS 454-430 MB...
TEMPS TOO COLD.
PPG/91765 - 10142
ASY/70414 - LATE FOR NAM.
SGF/72440 - WINDS MISSING ABOVE 500 MB.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
CWD REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 17Z MON FEB 7.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[missytingarland]

Ok, so I'm up here in Sherman at my mom's and I turn on the weather and they say we're under a winter weather advisory? Is there any chance this front today could turn into more than we thought?

From the NWS website, no one in the CWA is under a WWA currently. Only a SWS has been issued concerning the mid-week system. Maybe they expect Sherman to go under a WWA later, which could be possible due to expected sleet and snow.

Ok...that's good! I saw that on the Weather Channel. They're saying we're going to have snow showers all day.

[Tejas89]

NWS keeps upping the highs for DFW Wednesday but we're still below freezing with sleet/snow. I wonder about the southern counties though, with this event.

[txagwxman]

6z NAM was too slow with the front, ECMWF looks faster and more correct for Wednesday...I would expect some sleet in Austin if this verifies.

[txagwxman]

NWS keeps upping the highs for DFW Wednesday but we're still below freezing with sleet/snow. I wonder about the southern counties though, with this event.

I am sorry, but NWS is missing this...ECMWF has the teens into FTW Wednesday morning.

just my 2 cents.

[srainhoutx]

I'd give the NCEP guidance a chance to ingest some of that RECON data before being too bold with any forecast. I suspect that is exactly why the NWS/HPC is being very cautious at this point regarding any big expections/WSW/totals...etc...

[DentonGal]

I have a question about the NWS. It seems to me, as all these events have unfolded, that the Norman NWS always has such a better grip on forecasting winter weather than Fort Worth - that was true last winter as well. Is this due to different personnel, different equipment, or less anomalies than Texas weather?

[wxman57]

I have a question about the NWS. It seems to me, as all these events have unfolded, that the Norman NWS always has such a better grip on forecasting winter weather than Fort Worth - that was true last winter as well. Is this due to different personnel, different equipment, or less anomalies than Texas weather?

I think that it all depends on who's working there and who's in charge. "Back in the day" (1970s-1980s), the place to look to for insight into upcoming winter events was the Brownsville NWS office. They always were the ones on-the-ball as far as model errors with shallow Arctic airmasses. We'd anxiously await each new Brownsville NWS discussion for insight into an upcoming event.

But over the years, as those meteorologists retired and/or moved on, the expertise was gradually lost. All offices have the same equipment and data, it's the expertise and experience of the forecasters that makes the difference.

[Dallasaggie01]

I have a question about the NWS. It seems to me, as all these events have unfolded, that the Norman NWS always has such a better grip on forecasting winter weather than Fort Worth - that was true last winter as well. Is this due to different personnel, different equipment, or less anomalies than Texas weather?

I had always heard that your margin for error is greater as you move into dfw to central tx areas, just due to general weather patterns and how far cold air set ups. You could also have more influence from snow pack in the central plains. It's only 3 hours north but your risk of a rain vs. Snow event is higher here.

[Portastorm]

The folks at NWSFO Austin/San Antonio appear rather bullish on this week's coming event and are laying their bets on King Euro:

Snippet from the Forecast Discussion:
THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE EUROPEAN IS NOW
ACTUALLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...A REVERSAL FROM YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE
DENSITY OF THE AIRMASS... STILL TEND TO THINK IT WILL SLIDE UNDER
THE ZONAL WESTERLIES ALOFT EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREBY RUN WITH
THE ECMWF MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS.

THIS WILL LIKELY GIVE US A WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE EVENT MAY START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BECOMING A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREA BY LATE
MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LEVELS GET COLDER...CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE EVENT
SHOULD END. THIS IS ALL VERY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND MODEL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND. IN SUMMARY
HOWEVER...A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR AFTER PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT AROUND MIDWEEK. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST TIMING...INTENSITY AND IMPACTS FROM
THIS UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

Current Forecast:
Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 36. East southeast wind 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest.

Wednesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 2pm, then a chance of rain between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 25 and 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Snowman67]

The folks at NWSFO Austin/San Antonio appear rather bullish on this week's coming event and are laying their bets on King Euro:

Snippet from the Forecast Discussion:
THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE EUROPEAN IS NOW
ACTUALLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...A REVERSAL FROM YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE
DENSITY OF THE AIRMASS... STILL TEND TO THINK IT WILL SLIDE UNDER
THE ZONAL WESTERLIES ALOFT EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREBY RUN WITH
THE ECMWF MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS.

THIS WILL LIKELY GIVE US A WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE EVENT MAY START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BECOMING A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREA BY LATE
MORNING...THEN AS THE UPPER LEVELS GET COLDER...CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE EVENT
SHOULD END. THIS IS ALL VERY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND MODEL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND. IN SUMMARY
HOWEVER...A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR AFTER PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT AROUND MIDWEEK. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST TIMING...INTENSITY AND IMPACTS FROM
THIS UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

Current Forecast:
Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 36. East southeast wind 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest.

Wednesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 2pm, then a chance of rain between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 25 and 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

You must be living right Porta!

[Ntxw]

12z NAM says, NO! Wants to keep it mostly in Oklahoma lol.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NAM says, NO! Wants to keep it mostly in Oklahoma lol.

Lol...the nam. The only thing it has even come close to correct with recently was that the 18z run thursday sniffed out that deformation zone over western NTX that would increase dfw's heavy snow chances. Even still though, its accumulations were about 3 inches too light.

[Ntxw]

Lol...the nam. The only thing it has even come close to correct with recently was that the 18z run thursday sniffed out that deformation zone over western NTX that would increase dfw's heavy snow chances. Even still though, its accumulations were about 3 inches too light.

Oh don't worry, I don't buy anything not even the Euro up until it's live based on what's already happened lol. NAM is doing it's usual cha cha of underestimating the southern shortwave and tries to shear it out too fast.

Here's the radar for people waiting on today!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Portastorm]

You must be living right Porta!

Meh ... still a long ways to go, Snowman, as 72 hours is an eternity for these things. The real show will be in North Texas I think.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS suggests you folks in N TX may get a shot at wintry precip today into the evening.