Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Dean4Storms]

Two things working against snow down near the coast. First is the depth of the low, neither model does a great deal with it which is crucial in this set up. Secondly is the UL trough once again digging down over TX instead of coming SE toward the Gulf Coast.

We needed a sharp upper level trough digging toward the Gulf which in turn would have deepened the low rapidly and lifted it more NE. This doesn't appear to be the case in this situation.

[BigB0882]

It is amazing how many things have to come together for a snow so far down south. No wonder snow events are so rare. I would like to know what has to come together for a huge snowfall like the 20 inches Houston got a long time ago. I can't imagine what must have all come together to make that possible.

[Metalicwx220]

You have a have a white hurricane!

[Ivanhater]

Chill out with all the smiley faces Metalic.

[Metalicwx220]

Im cool I just get excited sometimes.

[Dean4Storms]

If you can get very cold air in place and an Upper Level disturbance moving through you can get snow, otherwise it takes a very rapidly deepening low over the Gulf combining the polar and southern branch of the jet stream which drags all the Cold Air down into the storm, much like the March 93 SuperStorm.

[Metalicwx220]

I know there is another thread but I have to share my background picture. I want to see this thursday minus the dereecho. This is what we need. Will we see one this march?

[Brent]

I know there is another thread but I have to share my background picture. I want to see this thursday minus the dereecho. This is what we need. Will we see one this march?

1993 produced two feet just north of where I sit right now and shattered every snow record in the books, also hours of thundersnow(had 10 inches here with 4 foot drifts). Odds are it won't happen for another 500 years as much as I wish I would. I do not expect to see a blizzard like that again ever in Alabama.

[Kennethb]

If you get a deformation zone to set up in the right spot, and stall, you can get isolated amounts of exceptional snow. That is rare down south, but can occur. Such as in the 2008 early December when there was an area here in LA near Amite that got 8".

[Metalicwx220]

Whats so amazing about it is that it happened in MARCH!! Who wouldve expected that? IT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW on TWC. They should make an episode about another superstorm or ark storm. .................................. Got a rainy night ahead. Hope my track and field pratice gets cancelled tomorrow!

[Metalicwx220]

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Wednesday night through Saturday...a potent southern stream
shortwave will approach from the west Wednesday night and cross the
region Thursday. This system will induce cyclogenesis along the
western wall of the Gulf Stream off the southeast U.S. Coast
Thursday morning with models showing the low passing well offshore
Thursday afternoon. We continue to favor the drier and weaker GFS
solution as both the 00/12z European model (ecmwf) runs appear to be overplaying the
strength of the southern stream shortwave. Will highlight 50/60
percent probability of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday--consistent with the
latest mex/HPC guidance--with probability of precipitation dropping into the slight chance
range Thursday night. No p-type issues are anticipated at this time with any
frozen or freezing precipitation expected to remain well to the
west. Showers activity should be well offshore before temperatures
drop below freezing early Friday morning. Dry conditions are
expected with high pressure dominating.
WUNDERGROUND.com OR WEATHERUNDERground

[MississippiWx]

00z NAM is more bullish on some wrap around precip with tomorrow's system. Possible snow flurries/showers all the way to the Panhandle! Watch out, Ivan!

Hour 18:



Hour 24:



Hour 30:

[Metalicwx220]

OMG SO CLOSE COME ONNNN!!!

[Metalicwx220]

Will be cold enough to support snow for northwest florida.

[Jag95]

Unfortunately surface temps are too warm until after the precip moves out.

[MississippiWx]

FWIW, the GFS is much farther south with the system for Wednesday and also much colder. Unfortunately, it is also much weaker with the system. We can't catch a break! We got the south trend, but now it's much weaker. Hopefully, the GFS is picking up on a farther south solution, but it's just off on the strength.

[Brent]

GFS is totally shredding to pieces the Wed storm. Forget a south trend, there's not even a storm to trend south. lol. I'm sorry but I see no one south of me having a chance at snow with that one, even here it looks doubtful. Temps borderline to begin with... the NAM which is a lot better even has just rain here, but 4-6 inches of snow in N AL.

As for tomorrow, again, surface temps are way too warm(up in the 50's tomorrow afternoon, it's not going to drop fast enough before the precip is gone). I barely have a changeover forecast at the tail end.

LOL, the GFS tomorrow is all rain below TN... no changeover, and the NAM has snow into Central Alabama. Even 24 hours out, they can't agree.

[Ynotndalton]

The trend with wednesday's storm is getting depressing. Never can get a break lol.
Nam looks better .. gives some hope.. but will be watching for nam to trend weaker tomm , either that or gfs to come back to life.

[MississippiWx]

GFS is totally shredding to pieces the Wed storm. Forget a south trend, there's not even a storm to trend south. lol. I'm sorry but I see no one south of me having a chance at snow with that one, even here it looks doubtful. Temps borderline to begin with... the NAM which is a lot better even has just rain here, but 4-6 inches of snow in N AL.

As for tomorrow, again, surface temps are way too warm(up in the 50's tomorrow afternoon, it's not going to drop fast enough before the precip is gone). I barely have a changeover forecast at the tail end.

LOL, the GFS tomorrow is all rain below TN... no changeover, and the NAM has snow into Central Alabama. Even 24 hours out, they can't agree.

I'm going by what the GFS was showing back in Texas and in Texas, it is much farther south than previous runs. What's left of the system is much farther south once it makes it this way. We still have a 70% chance of rain and snow in Hattiesburg and we are 3 hours south of west of Birmingham. And with precip falling behind that 0degree line, it's going to be snow. The soundings support it. Just because it's not 32 at the surface doesn't mean it's not going to snow. I wasn't saying there would be accumulating snows by any means.

[Brent]

Heh Apparently the 0z Euro is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYY south. Like south of me is the best snow south. These models are TERRIBLE.

Ya'll may not be out of it yet...

But I should remind ya, they almost always trend north in the final 2 days. Last February 12th anyone?