Texas Winter 2010-2011

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MississippiWx
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7541 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:16 am

K, well maybe I had my times mixed up or the difference between the GFS and CMC had me mixed up. I have no idea! LOL. This system is driving me nuts.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7542 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:20 am

orangeblood wrote:
Texas2Florida wrote:Chick on Channel 5 said she only expects an inch or 2....but that if the L tracks south may be 3. Good reason to say 4-6 IMO. I'm thinking citywide shutdown again Wednesday PM until about noon on Thursday. No school Thursday.


If the storm did hit like the GFS is showing, school districts will have a real hard time making a decision about school on Wednesday. This storm would start in earnest while kids are heading to school.

Thats what I was worried about with last tuesday's storm. For the sake of my friends and I who drive to school, I was hoping like hell the storm would get going earlier to keep the 2000 kids who drive to my school off the roads...considering they can hardly drive when the weather is good...

Hopefully this one pushes through earlier tuesday night, because driving to school in this one wednesday is going to be a total disaster.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7543 Postby downsouthman1 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:22 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Texas2Florida wrote:Chick on Channel 5 said she only expects an inch or 2....but that if the L tracks south may be 3. Good reason to say 4-6 IMO. I'm thinking citywide shutdown again Wednesday PM until about noon on Thursday. No school Thursday.


If the storm did hit like the GFS is showing, school districts will have a real hard time making a decision about school on Wednesday. This storm would start in earnest while kids are heading to school.

Thats what I was worried about with last tuesday's storm. For the sake of my friends and I who drive to school, I was hoping like hell the storm would get going earlier to keep the 2000 kids who drive to my school off the roads...considering they can hardly drive when the weather is good...

Hopefully this one pushes through earlier tuesday night, because driving to school in this one wednesday is going to be a total disaster.


I don't think this storm is a definite yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7544 Postby Texas2Florida » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:25 am

orangeblood wrote:
Texas2Florida wrote:Chick on Channel 5 said she only expects an inch or 2....but that if the L tracks south may be 3. Good reason to say 4-6 IMO. I'm thinking citywide shutdown again Wednesday PM until about noon on Thursday. No school Thursday.


If the storm did hit like the GFS is showing, school districts will have a real hard time making a decision about school on Wednesday. This storm would start in earnest while kids are heading to school.


True, it may be a shutdown Wed and Thu...if it starts early AM Wednesday I'll be betting people would not be driving their kids to school only to have to go get them 3-4 hours later. Oh the airport should be fun, thank goodness the Super Bowl traffic will be gone.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7545 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:27 am

downsouthman1 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
If the storm did hit like the GFS is showing, school districts will have a real hard time making a decision about school on Wednesday. This storm would start in earnest while kids are heading to school.

Thats what I was worried about with last tuesday's storm. For the sake of my friends and I who drive to school, I was hoping like hell the storm would get going earlier to keep the 2000 kids who drive to my school off the roads...considering they can hardly drive when the weather is good...

Hopefully this one pushes through earlier tuesday night, because driving to school in this one wednesday is going to be a total disaster.


I don't think this storm is a definite yet.

It most certainly isnt. But assuming that run of the gfs were to verify....or anything close to it for that matter, it would be bad.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7546 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:38 am

Looking over last night's Canadian runs for today's event, it couldn't even get the qpf remotely close to verifying less than 24 hours from the event. So I wouldn't put too much stock into this model for Wednesday's storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7547 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:40 am

orangeblood wrote:Looking over last night's Canadian runs for today's event, it couldn't even get the qpf remotely close to verifying less than 24 hours from the event. So I wouldn't put too much stock into this model for Wednesday's storm.



We'll see what the Euro shows. I still think we'll get snow, but I have no idea how much.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7548 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:41 am

As far as the system happening are not.. I think it will. I know the models aren't in 100% agreement as far as exact timing and strength of the system. However based on everything I'm very comfortable if nothing else areas of north Texas will see winter precip with atleast some accumulation.

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7549 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:45 am

iorange55 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Looking over last night's Canadian runs for today's event, it couldn't even get the qpf remotely close to verifying less than 24 hours from the event. So I wouldn't put too much stock into this model for Wednesday's storm.



We'll see what the Euro shows. I still think we'll get snow, but I have no idea how much.

When will the Euro come out?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7550 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:46 am

GRAYSONCO.WX wrote:
iorange55 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Looking over last night's Canadian runs for today's event, it couldn't even get the qpf remotely close to verifying less than 24 hours from the event. So I wouldn't put too much stock into this model for Wednesday's storm.



We'll see what the Euro shows. I still think we'll get snow, but I have no idea how much.

When will the Euro come out?



I believe it starts to update around 12
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7551 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:47 am

We'll see what the Euro shows. I still think we'll get snow, but I have no idea how much.[/quote]
When will the Euro come out?[/quote]


I believe it starts to update around 12[/quote]
Great! Hopefully it paints a good picture for NTX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7552 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:57 am

The Yuropean has initialized.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7553 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:01 am

Ntxw wrote:The Yuropean has initialized.

Keep us updated! Please(:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7554 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:05 am

Well for one thing, it does look like the ECMWF will be delaying both the storm and cold. Doesn't start snowing in Amarillo until Weds morning.

Side note: UKMET still looks the same (only consistent model so far with this storm) with a NTX/W TX hit.
Last edited by Ntxw on Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7555 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:10 am

Ntxw wrote:Well for one thing, it does look like the ECMWF will be delaying both the storm and cold. Doesn't start snowing in Amarillo until Weds morning.


Forgive me of any possible misinterpretation - but based on what I'm seeing it looks like the CMC and ECMWF are both delaying the system somewhat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7556 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:14 am

Ntxw wrote:Well for one thing, it does look like the ECMWF will be delaying both the storm and cold. Doesn't start snowing in Amarillo until Weds morning.

Side note: UKMET still looks the same (only consistent model so far with this storm) with a NTX/W TX hit.

How much is the ukment showing for the dfw area?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7557 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:14 am

ECMWF for DFW: 0.05 rain, then 0.18 probably mostly snow/mix (transition but 850c are below freezing, surface temps mid 30s), then 0.22 all snow

^Not sure about the Ukmet, I don't have text output for it. But based on storm maps on it in the past, it would be hefty.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7558 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:15 am

Ntxw wrote:ECMWF for DFW: 0.05 rain, then 0.18 probably mostly snow/mix (transition but 850c are below freezing, surface temps mid 30s), then 0.22 all snow

^Not sure about the Ukmet, I don't have text output for it. But based on storm maps on it in the past, it would be hefty.



Not a bad run. I think tonight has been a tad bit better than last night. GFS showing a decent snow storm and so is the Euro.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7559 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:17 am

iorange55 wrote:Not a bad run. I think tonight has been a tad bit better than last night. GFS showing a decent snow storm and so is the Euro.


Euro does have it as an afternoon event after 18z.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7560 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:18 am

Ntxw wrote:
iorange55 wrote:Not a bad run. I think tonight has been a tad bit better than last night. GFS showing a decent snow storm and so is the Euro.


Euro does have it as an afternoon event after 18z.



I'm hoping it's during the daylight this time. I don't know if I can make it through another night again, lol.
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