Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

Could you give any details on the Euro? Like where the snow is, a general idea? Any amounts?

I hate the Euro because it is generally a more reliable model but it doesn't have any text outputs or snow maps that I can access.

[MississippiWx]

Heh Apparently the 0z Euro is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYY south. Like south of me is the best snow south. These models are TERRIBLE.

Ya'll may not be out of it yet...

But I should remind ya, they almost always trend north in the final 2 days. Last February 12th anyone?

You are right, brotha! Preach on...don't know what to believe anymore.

[Ynotndalton]

Nam and Gfs have two completely diff views.... nam is more reliable in short range with track .. while gfs euro are better with thermal profiles. should either start to see the nam go south.. or gfs euro come north.. Whichever happens will determine the fate of the storm.

[Ynotndalton]

Per Huntsville office.... OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING
LOW...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SEEM TO BE TRACKING
THIS LOW FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF AND DECREASING THE IMPACTS OF
THIS EVENT FOR N AL...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL MISS
OUT ON SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE OUTLIER IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE NEW 00Z RUN OF THE GFS...WHICH SHEARS OUT THE SYSTEM AND SPLITS
THE PRECIPITATION AROUND OUR AREA (LIKELY DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS
TOO QUICKLY AS WELL). BUT UNLESS ADDITIONAL RUNS HELP CONFIRM THIS
SCENARIO...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD A EURO SOLN FOR THIS EVENT.
THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FROM 00-12Z
THURSDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEEP COLUMN OF MOISTURE WITH A BROAD
VERTICAL AREA OF NEG OMEGA AND A PROFILE WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A
FEW INCHES OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD AND SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE KICKS THE SYSTEM OFF TO OUR EAST.

[Ynotndalton]

Per peachtree city.... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL A CONCERN FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ((((GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE SYSTEM POORLY)))) WITH
VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. EUROPEAN AND NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH
TRACKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
RATHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED. MODEL THICKNESSES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW FOR N GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL GA. BASED ON THE GFS
WAS TEMPTED TO DECREASE POPS BUT BASED ON THE EUROPEAN AND NAM I
WILL CONTINUE 70% POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LIKELY FROM A BANKS
TO CARROLL COUNTY LINE AND N AND A MIX AS FAR S AS ABOUT TROUP TO
WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY. ALL PRECIP IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO END THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND PASS BY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE EUROPEAN IS
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE FOR MAYBE A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING. FOR NOW WILL JUST LEAVE THINGS DRY.
OTHERWISE A DRY AIRMASS LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK AROUND NORMAL.



Not biting the dry crazy gfs solution yet...

[icicle]

From MEG.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT BUT REMARKABLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN IN
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...DROPPING A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTING THE FEATURE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION TAPS BOTH THE ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR
AND LOW/MIDLEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO CREATE ACCUMULATING SNOW OF
SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SHEARING THE FEATURE OUT AND GIVING
THE MIDSOUTH A DUSTING OF SNOW AT MOST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
CANADIAN GEM MODEL WAS ROUGHLY A MIXTURE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...
STRONGER THAN THE GFS BUT TAKING THE SHORTWAVE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK THAN THE ECMWF...ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS... HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF.
AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...IT HAS SHOWN THE MOST
CONSISTENCY. IT MUST BE MENTIONED THAT THE THE DISPARITY BETWEEN
THE MODELS LEADS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MIDSOUTH. HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL FIND
BETTER CONSENSUS NOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS FINALLY COME
ONSHORE OVER WESTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING.

[Ynotndalton]

don't know if image will post right... ecmwf precip forecast

[Ynotndalton]

Local met.. channel 9 .. his model painted 5.5 inches here in N ga... dalton.. those local models are usually far less than the Op models.

[Ynotndalton]

Looks like the wed storm is not gonna phase with the Northern stream... looks like it's gonna be a bust.

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS has almost no precip anywhere in the state of Alabama, almost no storm anywhere. We will see.

After this storm, it looks nice and toasty for the Deep South throughout the extended

[timmeister]

Looks like Hattiesburg will miss out on getting snow again if the models don't change tomorrow.

[zippity]

12Z GFS has almost no precip anywhere in the state of Alabama, almost no storm anywhere. We will see.

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola putting Snow in the forecast for the northern zones of the area

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S IN WHAT SHOULD START OUT AS A PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY AND END UP CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTIONED A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S THOSE AREA AND GENERALLY FREEZING
OR ABOVE THE REST OF THE AREA. /11

[Agua]

Looks like Hattiesburg will miss out on getting snow again if the models don't change tomorrow.

Got to say, Hattiesburg proper is consistently hotter by several degrees than anywhere north of I-10. I drive between Ocean Springs and Jackson 6-8 times per month and H'burg is nearly always 2-4 degrees warmer than everything surrounding it. In the summer, the pines stifle any breeze too.

[Brent]

BMX is not impressed either:

AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH...COMBINED WITH WET BULBING...FOR A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
I-20 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING....AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BETWEEN I-20 AND I-85. PRECIP WILL END THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY....HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES...WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
WITH THE EVENT 80+ HOURS OUT...FINER SCALE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE
THE EXTENT AND LOCATION OF SNOWFALL. EXPECT TO SEE FUTURE MODEL RUNS
COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS...BUT GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER AND WEAKER GFS
SOLUTION...CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP POTENTIAL AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

Not even winter storm criteria here. NEXT.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Hattiesburg will miss out on getting snow again if the models don't change tomorrow.

Got to say, Hattiesburg proper is consistently hotter by several degrees than anywhere north of I-10. I drive between Ocean Springs and Jackson 6-8 times per month and H'burg is nearly always 2-4 degrees warmer than everything surrounding it. In the summer, the pines stifle any breeze too.

Tell me about it. I had field training with Air force (boot camp for officers) 2 summers ago. First 2 weeks were at Maxwell AFB in Montgomery, the last 2 weeks were at Camp Shelby in Hattiesburg. Never saw a drop of rain or a hint of a breeze. At least in Pensacola, we get the sea breeze.

[Brent]

Models are trending wetter again...

Wow.

[Lane]

Brent, Ivan - which direction looks best to go?

[Brent]

Definitely north...



I think near or just north of I-20 is the best place right now, but still highly uncertain.

[Metalicwx220]

Apparently there will be flurries in south alabama in 6 hours according to the 18znam