Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

There was a quake on Friday morning in the Southern Windward Islands.For the details go to the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Activity thread

Another one? Something to keep an eye on as we never knows...

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST SAT FEB 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID MONTH.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20 NORTH DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO CUBA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATE THE AREA...KEEPING
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WIND FLOW CARRYING PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 4 AM AST PUERTO RICO...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WERE SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME
OF WHICH MOVED ONSHORE OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND SAINT
THOMAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN IN EL YUNQUE WHERE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAS FALLEN
AND COASTAL VEGA BAJA WHERE UP TO ONE HALF INCH HAS FALLEN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKNESS OF MOISTURE BETWEEN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AND PEAKS ON MONDAY. WOULD EXPECT BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TO
INCREASE IN THE SAME MANNER. BEYOND MONDAY THE PASSING SHOWERS
CONTINUE...BUT MAY NOT BE AS FREQUENT OR AS WET. WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SHALLOW INTERIOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALMOST
OFFSHORE BUT IT HAS OCCURRED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...PRINCIPALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
PUERTO RICO. STREAMERS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SMALLER ISLANDS WERE
EVIDENT...BUT WERE FRAIL AND DISSIPATED BEFORE 5 PM AST. REPEATED
ASSAULTS BY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BE UNABLE
TO MOVE PAST THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COME SOUTH OF 22 NORTH DURING THE NEXT 10
DAYS. THIS AND VERY DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FROM OCCURRING THROUGH MID MONTH.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LLVL CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR
CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHOWERS. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS PSBL AT SOME TAF SITES SUCH AS TIST.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND PEAK ON SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY...SEAS WILL FOLLOW AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
PLACE BY SUNDAY IN MOST EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE
SLOWLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 74 / 40 50 50 20
STT 84 76 85 76 / 30 10 20 20

[Macrocane]

The morning lows registered today were not cooler than yesterday at least in El Salvador But do you remember that the GFS was predicting a very strong high with 6 isobars over Central America? well it didn't verify well and we have a weak ridge with only 2 isobars over the region but that has been enough to produce weak to moderate northerly winds that may bring a relief for the very warm temperatures of this week. I will post today's lows and highs later.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
118 PM AST SAT FEB 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
JUANA DIAZ...SALINAS AND SANTA ISABEL

...SIGNIFICANT FIRES OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH...

AT 103 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THREE WELL DEFINED SMOKE PLUMES ORIGINATING FROM FIRES IN SALINAS
SANTA ISABEL AND GUAYAMA. ONE FIRE WAS LOCATED NEAR SECTOR QUEBRADA
YEGUAS WHILE ANOTHER WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF AGUIRRE NEAR THE
SALINAS AND GUAYAMA COUNTY. ANOTHER FIRE WAS DETECTED IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SANTA ISABEL NEAR THE COAMO COUNTY LINE NORTH
OF EXPRESSWAY 52. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMOKE
PLUMES WESTWARD ACROSS SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL INTO JUANA DIAZ AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PONCE. MOTORISTS TRAVELING ON EXPRESSWAY 52 IN
SANTA ISABEL AND SALINAS AND HIGHWAY 3 NEAR AGUIRRE WILL BE IMPACTED
BY HEAVY SMOKE AND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST SAT FEB 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION
TOMORROW AND HOLD THROUGH WED THEN GIVE WAY TO A DEEP POLAR
TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SCT SHRAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF PR.
MOISTURE DOES NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN MODELS SHOW RIDGE ERODING AS A DEEP POLAR
TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND WIND FLOW DIMINISHES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...TEMPO MVFR AND BRIEF MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE EN
ROUTE BTW LOCAL ISLANDS DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND LOW CIGS AT LEAST
UNTIL 05/23Z. GENERAL LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
15-25 KTS UP TO 15K FT. OCNL SFC WND GUSTS BTW 25-30 KTS ALONG
COASTAL AREAS AND IN PASSING SHRA AT MOST TAF SITES TIL 05/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR NEAR SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
WATERS ADJACENT TO USVI DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LARGE FIRE DEVELOPED IN COAMO NEAR SANTA ISABEL
COUNTY LINE WITH 50-60 ACRES BURNED PER BOMBEROS REPORT. TWO OTHER
WELL DEFINED SMOKE PLUMES WERE SEEN IN SALINAS AND GUAYAMA. OTHER
HOTSPOTS WERE DETECTED ACROSS LAJAS/SAN GERMAN AND SABANA GRANDE
BUT STILL WAITING OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION ON THOSE. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
THE EAST. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
MARGINAL...RECENT EVENTS LIKE THE ONE ON THURSDAY AND TODAY
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT RH IS NOT AS CRITICAL AS WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE
ARE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 83 / 40 40 20 20
STT 74 84 75 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

The morning lows registered today were not cooler than yesterday at least in El Salvador But do you remember that the GFS was predicting a very strong high with 6 isobars over Central America? well it didn't verify well and we have a weak ridge with only 2 isobars over the region but that has been enough to produce weak to moderate northerly winds that may bring a relief for the very warm temperatures of this week. I will post today's lows and highs later.

As I have been following by your postings,it has been a Winter period in Centralamerica with some extreme temperatures on the cool side as well on the warm side. In Puerto Rico,it has been near normal temperaturewise during this period of Winter.

[cycloneye]

Thee was a big forest fire in Southern Puerto Rico,but it has been controlled.As the dry weather continues,these kind of fires are common.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 82963.html

[Macrocane]

As I have been following by your postings,it has been a Winter period in Centralamerica with some extreme temperatures on the cool side as well on the warm side. In Puerto Rico,it has been near normal temperaturewise during this period of Winter.

Yeah, November was near normal, December was one of the coldest on record and January was warmer than normal. It's good to hear that Puerto Rico has been normal after last year was a little warmer than normal wasn't it?

[Macrocane]

The weak cold front that approached the region today (Saturday February 5 2010) brought a relief to the warm maximum temperatures of the last few days in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador and also produced cooler minimum temperatures in Guatemala, let's see if tomorrow morning is cooler than today.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.3°C (32.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.5°C (52.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20°C (68°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.3°C (55.9°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.4°C (41.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.9°C (58.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.2°C (61.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.9°C (100.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.6°C (56.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A change from dry to more wet conditions are expected this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SUN FEB 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE EASTWARD. A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER PUERTO RICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH
OF 15 NORTH. IT WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST OVER NEXT WEEKEND AND
DOMINATE THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE WEST INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTH SOUTHEAST
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN
31 AND 26 NORTH WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WITH
SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD
OVER NEXT WEEKEND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
HISPANIOLA AND INCH EASTWARD AS A FRONT STRETCHES TO THE NORTHEAST
NORTH OF THE AREA CAUSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE AREA`S LOCAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH LARGELY
MISSING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE A HEAVY SHOWER BROUGHT
ALMOST ONE QUARTER INCH TO SAINT THOMAS JUST BEFORE 8 PM SATURDAY
NIGHT...MANY OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE COME ONSHORE OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND LEFT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS FROM LOIZA TO VEGA BAJA AND
FROM NAGUABO TO SALINAS. SHOWERS ALSO PENETRATED THE COAST AT
HUMACAO AND DISSIPATED IN AIBONITO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OF LESS THAN ONE MILE
IN DIAMETER CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AT A BRISK PACE BRINGING A FEW MINUTES OF RAIN AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH. SOME
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE COASTS
ON THE WINDWARD SIDE AGAIN TONIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE A
DRIER PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO THAT WILL
CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. WITH THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE COULD
DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. BEYOND THIS
MODEL FEATURES ARE LESS IN AGREEMENT AND FEATURES ARE
WEAK...SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AGREE THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA WILL COME NO CLOSER THAN 300-500
MILES OF SAN JUAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 06/22Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS AT THE SURFACE. AFT 06/17Z EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER MUCH
OF PR AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK THIS WEEK AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE WINDS
AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 24 KNOTS AND 9 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 50 30 30 20
STT 84 74 85 76 / 30 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST SUN FEB 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... IT
WILL REGRESS EASTWARD AND GIVE WAY TO A DEEP LAYER LONG WAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOOSENING OF THE LOCAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT... RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. IN ADDITION... THE NOW DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ERODE BY MID WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSPORT OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
TRADE WIND MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS...THEN EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE
EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID TO
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EXPECTED SCENARIO AND ADJUST
FORECAST WITH TIME. SO FOR NOW...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL
BURSTS OF PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 06/22Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS IN THE LOCAL
PASSAGES. HOWEVER...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. NEVERTHELESS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS...WITH POSSIBLE
WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 23 KNOTS AND 9 FEET RESPECTIVELY IN SOME
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 72 83 / 30 30 20 20
STT 75 85 75 85 / 30 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL WEEKS REGISTERED TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA

The cold surge that affected the region in the las couple of days was not that weak after all and it produced pretty cool temperatures this morning, the maximum temps were warm though as it's normal for this time of year:
-Guatemala city and Zacapa in Guatemala had their coldest low since January 30
-The coldest temperature since January 16 was registered in El Salvador today in the station of Las Pilas.
-Managua, San Jose and Panama city experienced their coldest minimum temp so far this year.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12°C (54°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.8°C (35.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 17°C (62.6°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.1°C (44.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14°C (57°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 13.3°C (55.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.2°C (100.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.2°C (79.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST SUN FEB 6 2011

.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT SEND A ZFP
UPDATE. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST MON FEB 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA
WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. MID LEVELS CONTINUE
VERY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH...BUT THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID MONTH. ALTHOUGH FRONTS LEAVE THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL NOT ALLOW THEM CLOSER THAN
300-500 MILES OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
INTENSITIES MOVED BRISKLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT FEW SHOWERS FELL OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OVERNIGHT SO FAR...THEY HAVE BEEN WITHOUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW PATCHES OF WET AND DRY PARCELS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS PASSING OVER THE AREA IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT TRADE
WINDS...WITH FEW IF ANY EASILY IDENTIFIABLE BREAKS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS A LONG FETCH OF PATCHY SHALLOW CLOUDINESS. AT
THIS TIME MODELS STILL AGREE ON A DRY PATCH FLOATING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 08/03-08-09Z AND BETTER MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE
WE LOOK FOR A STEADY PARADE OF PATCHY MOISTURE GENERATING SHALLOW
SHOWERS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WET MOST OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS AND A FEW AREAS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE IN ANY TRENDS AND THE
ECMWF DID NOT CONFIRM A CLOSER FRONTAL APPROACH NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
07/22Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...AND TKPK IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS...AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE NOT EQUALED HEIGHTS REACHED EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING AND WITH WINDS NOW AT A PLATEAU...EXPECT SEAS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER TODAY. SEAS IN THE OUTER PORTION OF AMZ712 WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN BUOY 41053 IS SHOWING AND THEREFORE HAVE
ELECTED TO HOLD THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE. SEAS AT BUOY 41043
CONTINUE ABOVE 7 FEET AS DO SOME SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 74 / 30 20 20 40
STT 84 74 85 74 / 30 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST MON FEB 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK...AND ERODE THE DOMINANT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DRY
UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TREND WILL
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE GENERAL EASTERLY TRADE WIND
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SHOWERS OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND
MAINLY THE WINDWARD AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY EXPECT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE... EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DAYTIME SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. STILL...DO NOT
FORESEE WIDESPREAD OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 74 85 74 84 / 20 20 40 40

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
953 PM AST MON FEB 7 2011

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS OF MODERATE INTENSITY MOVED WEST
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES
CULEBRA...THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH SECTIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
MOSTLY LIGHT WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. DURING
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE REMAINING MOISTURE PATCHES FINALLY CROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ...LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

[Macrocane]

Minimum temperatures remained cool in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras though they were significantly warmer than yesterday in the rest of the countries. The maximum temps were similar to yesterday except in Panama city that had its warmest high this year so far.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -0.5°C (31.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.2°C (45.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.1°C (98.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 28.0°C (82.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.9°C (93.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION LAST NIGHT...ENHANCING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE....THEREFORE EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE ON CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH MID
MORNING.

A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...
WITH LOW LEVEL PATCHES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THE GFS
MODEL SUGGEST THAT A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE
FEATURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE
FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 08/22Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...AND TKPK IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS...AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE BUOY 41043 IS REPORTING WIND WAVE OF ABOVE 7
FEET BUT THE BUOY 41053 IS REPORTING WIND WAVES OF AROUND 5 FEET.
THEREFORE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 73 / 20 40 40 30
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2011

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
...IF ANY...SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. AS A RESULT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CONCENTRATE OVER
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM
GRIDS JUST TO ADJUST THE POP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 12 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AFT 08/18Z DUE TO SHALLOW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM/TKPK THROUGH ABOUT 08/20Z.