Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txagwxman]

Anyone else see the NCAR wrf for Wednesday? Much faster than any other model with the speed of the front.

[Kelarie]

I'm hoping it's during the daylight this time. I don't know if I can make it through another night again, lol.

That will probably hold down amount a little bit. But it is showing 538-530 thicknesses. So during the snow we'll be falling to about near 20.

Unfortunately EC also shows virtually no snow for Texarkana, it looks more like the Ukmet.

What no snow for me?? No don't say that....the forecasters in the area are calling for significant snow Wednesday in these parts...

[srainhoutx]

I smell a forecasting challenge ahead. I suspect none of the models will do well with this over running event. Gulf return flow looks to establish and that is a significant signal of things to come. The differences between the old ETA model and the NAM per the 12Z output raise an eyebrow. Although this is a bit different than last week and well established cold air will not be the issue this event, the differences in timing of frontal arrival and upper low transition across the region make for a worrisome pattern. Sound familiar?

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[wxman57]

Portastorm,

Here's a GFS meteogram from the 6z run. It shows precip ending as the temperature drops to 37 degrees. It's really difficult to get freezing/frozen precip immediately behind a cold front in central and SE TX. Maybe you could see a sleet pellet or two, but don't look for anything like last week.

[txagwxman]

Portastorm,

Here's a GFS meteogram from the 6z run. It shows precip ending as the temperature drops to 37 degrees. It's really difficult to get freezing/frozen precip immediately behind a cold front in central and SE TX. Maybe you could see a sleet pellet or two, but don't look for anything like last week.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ausgfs6zfeb7.gif

GFS going to bust for Austin....too slow with the front, as is the latest NAM.

Just my 2 cents.

[wxman57]

Portastorm,

Here's a GFS meteogram from the 6z run. It shows precip ending as the temperature drops to 37 degrees. It's really difficult to get freezing/frozen precip immediately behind a cold front in central and SE TX. Maybe you could see a sleet pellet or two, but don't look for anything like last week.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ausgfs6zfeb7.gif

GFS going to bust for Austin....too slow with the front, as is the latest NAM.

Just my 2 cents.

Could be. But it's very difficult to quickly cool the atmosphere right behind a front as the precip is ending so far south. Winter precip across central and SE TX typically occurs well after frontal passage, maybe the next day, as a passing disturbance produces lifting. 12Z NAM isn't much different from the GFS. Euro and Canadian have precip ending in Austin not long after frontal passage.

[txagwxman]

Portastorm,

Here's a GFS meteogram from the 6z run. It shows precip ending as the temperature drops to 37 degrees. It's really difficult to get freezing/frozen precip immediately behind a cold front in central and SE TX. Maybe you could see a sleet pellet or two, but don't look for anything like last week.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ausgfs6zfeb7.gif

GFS going to bust for Austin....too slow with the front, as is the latest NAM.

Just my 2 cents.

Could be. But it's very difficult to quickly cool the atmosphere right behind a front as the precip is ending so far south. Winter precip across central and SE TX typically occurs well after frontal passage, maybe the next day, as a passing disturbance produces lifting. 12Z NAM isn't much different from the GFS. Euro and Canadian have precip ending in Austin not long after frontal passage.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ausnam12zfeb7.gif

Cold air really building up quick in N Dakota, should plunge down the Plains into Tex Panhandle by 6PM tomorrow night...

With the last front the NAM didn't have NW Austin below freezing until noon, it was below freezing by 7AM.

A couple of WRF and MM5 runs from SUNY, NCAR, WSI are much faster than the latest NAM/GFS.

But we will see...

[wxman57]

12Z NAM doesn't have much winter precip south of the Red River with this week's storm:

[srainhoutx]

The difference between the 00Z Euro and the 12Z NAM are day and night. HPC has already mentioned the major difference (suppressed U/L) in the Model Diagnostic Discussion.

[wxman57]

Cold air really building up quick in N Dakota, should plunge down the Plains into Tex Panhandle by 6PM tomorrow night...

With the last front the NAM didn't have NW Austin below freezing until noon, it was below freezing by 7AM.

A couple of WRF and MM5 runs from SUNY, NCAR, WSI are much faster than the latest NAM/GFS.

But we will see...

Certainly, the colder air could arrive faster than the models indicate. I noticed with last week's front that the MOS temperature forecasts were way warm on temps even 12-18 hours before the front arrived. But this doesn't have the look of a storm that will produce ice issues in Austin as the precip won't last long once the cold air is in place. Different story for the Red River and north into OK, though.

[txagwxman]

Cold air really building up quick in N Dakota, should plunge down the Plains into Tex Panhandle by 6PM tomorrow night...

With the last front the NAM didn't have NW Austin below freezing until noon, it was below freezing by 7AM.

A couple of WRF and MM5 runs from SUNY, NCAR, WSI are much faster than the latest NAM/GFS.

But we will see...

Certainly, the colder air could arrive faster than the models indicate. I noticed with last week's front that the MOS temperature forecasts were way warm on temps even 12-18 hours before the front arrived. But this doesn't have the look of a storm that will produce ice issues in Austin as the precip won't last long once the cold air is in place. Different story for the Red River and north into OK, though.

See what the 12z runs do...ECMWF will probably back off some.

[orangeblood]

[quote="wxman57"]12Z NAM doesn't have much winter precip south of the Red River with this week's storm:

But seems to have almost zero support from the other models

[txagwxman]

12z GFS faster than the 00z with the front now.

[wxman57]

12z GFS faster than the 00z with the front now.

Appears to bring the front through Austin around 12Z. But it still shows little precip behind the front and snow just barely south to the DFW area. Very similar to the NAM but a bit farther south with the snow in the Dallas area:

[Portastorm]

Model runs aside, all I know is that there is enough concern here from our local NWS office that they have mentioned the potential for several hours of post-frontal precip. Personally, I would love it if Heat Miser, er wxman57, was correct. I'm ready for spring, believe it or not.

[txagwxman]

Model runs aside, all I know is that there is enough concern here from our local NWS office that they have mentioned the potential for several hours of post-frontal precip. Personally, I would love it if Heat Miser, er wxman57, was correct. I'm ready for spring, believe it or not.

[wxman22]

well according to the 0z Euro Austin and College Station WOULD get some frozen precipitation...fwiw And it wouldn't be the first time that south central/central Texas and even northern areas of Southeast Texas (Brenham/ College Station) have seen frozen precip behind a front (ie Dec 2005, Dec 2008 ect)

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

...WAVE CROSSING THE GULF STATES DAY 3...

THE NAM IS LESS SUPPRESSED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THAN THE
00Z/07 ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPRESSED.

[gboudx]

Impactweather vid update.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asEYNw29vCY

[wxman57]

well according to the 0z Euro Austin and College Station WOULD get some frozen precipitation...fwiw And it wouldn't be the first time that south central/central Texas and even northern areas of Southeast Texas (Brenham/ College Station) have seen frozen precip behind a front (ie Dec 2005, Dec 2008 ect)

Just curious, what are you looking at to make that determination? I'm looking at the 6hr precip forecasts from the 00Z Euro and see the precip ending in Austin by early afternoon Wednesday and in College Station by 6pm Wednesday. It appears to have Austin above freezing when the precip ends and College Station in the 32-34 deg range when precip ends. Could be some sleet potential, but not much.

Out of curiosity, I plotted a GFS 12Z meteogram for College Station. It has precip ending with surface temp between 35-40 as well as 850mb temps in that same range. GFS did quite well with last week's event. Let's see what the 12Z Euro shows in a few hours:


And, just for kicks, here's the 12Z GFS meteogram for Austin: