Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[TwisterFanatic]

Euro has a lot of snow for OKC and -21.4c (-6) for a low Thurs morning!! Ouch...

Thats nothing! It was -21 in Bartlesville, Oklahoma last week.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Euro has a lot of snow for OKC and -21.4c (-6) for a low Thurs morning!! Ouch...

How much snow does it have for the Red River counties of Oklahoma and NTX?

[Ntxw]

How much snow does it have for the Red River counties of Oklahoma and NTX?

Can't get information from text output for those locations. Only at places where records are kept really or there is a major airport I think. Nearest spot to you is PRX (Paris) and the numbers there are similar to DFW.

[natecast]

Euro has a lot of snow for OKC and -21.4c (-6) for a low Thurs morning!! Ouch...

Thanks for the info Ntxw! Do you happen to have the QPF amounts for OKC?

Man has it been cold here. Got down to -0.1 at my house last Thurs. AM, so officially below zero, lol. We're running 21 degrees below normal in OKC for Feb. I can't imagine how far below normal DFW must be right now.

[Ntxw]

Thanks for the info Ntxw! Do you happen to have the QPF amounts for OKC?

0.52 (all snow) qpf in very cold temps. I'd say 20:1 ratios is possible!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

A winter storm watch is up for all of Eastern Oklahoma...almost the whole state is under a winter storm watch.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[TwisterFanatic]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

OKZ016>031-033>040-044-080300-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0002.110209T0000Z-110210T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0002.110209T0000Z-110210T0000Z/
CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-
CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-
SEMINOLE-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-
GARVIN-COTTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...WALTERS
1203 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND BITTER COLD...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND BITTER COLD...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOW...FALLING TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. STORM INTENSITY PEAKING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VERY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW- PACKED
ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY.

* ACCUMULATIONS: AVERAGE OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY 10 INCHES.
DRIFTS 2 TO 3 FEET.

* OTHER IMPACTS: DANGEROUS COLD WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING AS LOW AS
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINISH PREPARATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVOID TRAVEL BY TUESDAY
EVENING. BE SURE YOU CAN TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY IF YOU
LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

&&

$$

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like the NWS is siding with the NAM on the placement of the heaviest snow, but is not saying quite as much as snow as the NAM is saying, but much more than the GFS is saying.

[BlueIce]

Looks like the NWS is siding with the NAM on the placement of the heaviest snow, but is not saying quite as much as snow as the NAM is saying, but much more than the GFS is saying.

Based on the forecast discussion I believe they are actually siding with the ECMWF

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A MODEL OF CHOICE PRIMARILY FOR ITS HANDLING OF
THE SURFACE COLD AIR AND INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z GFS
CAME IN VERY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS THE MOST NOTABLE OUTLIER
IN THE SENSE THAT IT PROBABLY DOES NOT MOVE THE COLD AIR QUICKLY
ENOUGH TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THE NAM ALSO
INDUCES A STRONGER PRESSURE WAVE AT LOW LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN CYCLOGENESIS AND EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL
THAN APPEARS IN OUR FORECAST. WHILE THE NAM AT LEAST REPRESENTS ONE
POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE SPECTRUM...IT DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM
OTHER GUIDANCE...AND DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY...AS THE MID LEVEL
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT.

[TwisterFanatic]

You're right. The NAM and EURO really isn't a big spread in heaviest snow placement. Precip amounts are just a bit different.

EDIT: This is what i was talking about.

[BlueIce]

You're right. The NAM and EURO really isn't a big spread in heaviest snow placement. Precip amounts are just a bit different.

EDIT: This is what i was talking about.

Oh ok nice. Ya I was focusing on the OUN central oklahoma reports. I have not looked at the Tulsa FA discussion.

[TwisterFanatic]

NAM - Oklahoma City

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=TLX

NAM - Ft Smith

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=SRX


The NAM and EURO are very similar, and the GFS is looking like the outlier right now. Looks like Oklahoma gonna get plowed again.

[Peanut432]

What does the CMC show for Southwest Oklahoma around Altus to Childress?

[BlueIce]

What does the CMC show for Southwest Oklahoma around Altus to Childress?

Well the CMC does not have a snowfall map but I pulled the NAM, GFS, and accumulated liquid precip from the CMC. It looks like 5 to 7 inches down that way. I would probably go toward the 5 inch range for SW Oklahoma.

GFS - 60 Hours


NAM - 54 hours


CMC - 60 Hours

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing to point out about the GFS snow map above is that it is showing snow accumulations using a 10:1 ratio. According to the Cobb output though, ratios over the course of this storm should average well over 15:1 across central Oklahoma, even peaking above 20:1 at times. This means that actual accumulations could be even higher than the GFS map above suggests (assuming the actual model QPF verifies).

You can view a breakdown of the 00z GFS snow ratios (as well as a variety of other text data) for OKC and OUN using the links provided below:

OKC: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... &site=kokc

OUN: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... s&site=oun

[Extremeweatherguy]

Late night update from the NWS targets the Oklahoma City-Norman corridor as the potential hardest hit region by this storm:

[BlueIce]

One thing to point out about the GFS snow map above is that it is showing snow accumulations using a 10:1 ratio. According to the Cobb output though, ratios over the course of this storm should average well over 15:1 across central Oklahoma, even peaking above 20:1 at times. This means that actual accumulations could be even higher than the GFS map above suggests (assuming the actual model QPF verifies).

You can view a breakdown of the 00z GFS snow ratios (as well as a variety of other text data) for OKC and OUN using the links provided below:

OKC: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... &site=kokc

OUN: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... s&site=oun

I completely agree with the 15:1 to 20:1 ratios. The OUN FA had a great discussion about the cold atmosphere earlier today.

IN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS FRONTAL STORM
SYSTEM...DESPITE REMAINING OPEN/ NOT DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW/...
WILL BE A VERY EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCER. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE
JUST SO FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...GIVEN THAT THE
COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL GET COLDER...PLACING A DEEP
LAYER OF -10 TO -20 C AIR COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT IN THE
CLOUD LAYER. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 600 MB SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE SNOW
GROWTH IN THE UPPER PART OF THE CLOUD...THUS SEEDING THE REST OF THE
CLOUD WITH NUCLEI FOR GROWTH BY ACCRETION.

[natecast]

I've told friends and family here to expect 6-10" of snow in the metro, with an isolated maximum of 12" possible. Latest 12Z GFS is throwing down more QPF and hammers us pretty good, I'll have to wait to see what the Bufkit and snowfall maps look like.

[BlueIce]

I've told friends and family here to expect 6-10" of snow in the metro, with an isolated maximum of 12" possible. Latest 12Z GFS is throwing down more QPF and hammers us pretty good, I'll have to wait to see what the Bufkit and snowfall maps look like.

I agree with that estimate as well. I would probably go closer to the 10" range. The satellite images of the storm are very impressive and the NAM estimated snowfall looks to be inline within the 10" range.