Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Texas2Florida]

Most of the local mets are now saying precip outta here by noon...big difference from the 12 hours of snow we thought would happen a few days ago. They are even downplaying it..wouldn't suprise me if the downplay busts.

[wall_cloud]

Just a couple of after-event snow pictures.

1. Texas Panhandle. I love seeing the Canyon and Canadian River Valley following a snow event.



2. Big Country Snow from last night. Amounts up to 1-2" locally but you can see it is tied to the higher terrain. That may answer a few questions that were asked last night. Its pretty much all gone now.

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately EWX has not written a mid-morning AFD nor have they issued a forecast since 3:30 am. I was hoping to see their thoughts on the 6z and 12z cycle of runs but oh well.

[wxman57]

Unfortunately EWX has not written a mid-morning AFD nor have they issued a forecast since 3:30 am. I was hoping to see their thoughts on the 6z and 12z cycle of runs but oh well.

I don't see anything in the 12Z runs to make me revise my thinking as far as Austin, Portastorm. A bit of cold rain with a chance of between 3 and 8 sleet pellets as the precip ends. How's that for precise forecasting?

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately EWX has not written a mid-morning AFD nor have they issued a forecast since 3:30 am. I was hoping to see their thoughts on the 6z and 12z cycle of runs but oh well.

I don't see anything in the 12Z runs to make me revise my thinking as far as Austin, Portastorm. A bit of cold rain with a chance of between 3 and 8 sleet pellets as the precip ends. How's that for precise forecasting?

Outstanding!

I really hope your forecast verifies. As much as this may surprise some people here, I'm loathing the thought of a potential icy threat here Wednesday after we all get to work/school. The morning AFD out of New Braunfels was of concern. A cold rain would be fine by me. Then bring on the 70s and 80s and we can grouse about model runs come next November.

[southerngale]

Personally, I'm ready for the big thaw next week and beyond. Soon it'll be time to start talking severe weather and then tropical!

Post of the month! Bring on the warmth! This winter has been very cold and I have had enough. I'm screaming Uncle!

I agree! Upper 20s forecast again tonight... then 30s or 20s the rest of the week. It looks like just one more week of cold weather, then we'll start to warm up.

[downsouthman1]

I really hope your forecast verifies. As much as this may surprise some people here, I'm loathing the thought of a potential icy threat here Wednesday after we all get to work/school. The morning AFD out of New Braunfels was of concern. A cold rain would be fine by me. Then bring on the 70s and 80s and we can grouse about model runs come next November.

Agreed. I hope that I'm close enough to Austin to enjoy your forecast. I also am not in the mood to deal with ice.

One note that I do want to mention to all though, since it sounds like most of us are on the spring/summer soon bandwagon already. Remember that even if longer range models are depicting near 80 under the ridge, that does not necessarily mean that winter is over. About 15 years ago, we got to 102 degrees in February & we all said we were gonna have an early summer. Within the week, the temperature plummeted & we had one of our historically largest ice storms.

[orangeblood]

Most of the local mets are now saying precip outta here by noon...big difference from the 12 hours of snow we thought would happen a few days ago. They are even downplaying it..wouldn't suprise me if the downplay busts.

Most models forecast that DFW will see 6-9 hours of frozen precip with temps falling to the lower 20's towards the end of the event. I don't know how a winter storm with frozen precip of greater than 0.25 inches is not significant. They're not doing their job if they start to downplay a storm like this. Warning the public of the potential of this winter storm should be their number one concern


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[txagwxman]

Just a couple of after-event snow pictures.

1. Texas Panhandle. I love seeing the Canyon and Canadian River Valley following a snow event.



2. Big Country Snow from last night. Amounts up to 1-2" locally but you can see it is tied to the higher terrain. That may answer a few questions that were asked last night. Its pretty much all gone now.

Elevation has nothing to do with snowfall...

I lie.

[srainhoutx]

What an amazing and eventful run since around the first of December when guidance suggested a pattern change. Boy, did that pattern change develop. We’ve seen record cold and numerous events and all coming to a nice end by the weekend. With that said, I suspect that after the Mid Week event we may well have some brief shots of cold air as the –NOA is already showing up in longer range guidance. Meanwhile, we begin to transition to warmer weather and a shift in gears to severe and tropical season. It is my hope that our new folks will stick around and continue discussions as we move forward. We’ve added a lot of new folks and created a lot of interest. Let’s not waste that opportunity as the days move forward and hopefully all that have contributed will continue to do so as that transition begins. We’ve grown and come along way since the early days, and that is a good thing, IMO.

[txagwxman]

Unfortunately EWX has not written a mid-morning AFD nor have they issued a forecast since 3:30 am. I was hoping to see their thoughts on the 6z and 12z cycle of runs but oh well.

I don't see anything in the 12Z runs to make me revise my thinking as far as Austin, Portastorm. A bit of cold rain with a chance of between 3 and 8 sleet pellets as the precip ends. How's that for precise forecasting?

I am guessin 80 ice pellets!

[downsouthman1]

What an amazing and eventful run since around the first of December when guidance suggested a pattern change. Boy, did that pattern change develop. We’ve seen record cold and numerous events and all coming to a nice end by the weekend. With that said, I suspect that after the Mid Week event we may well have some brief shots of cold air as the –NOA is already showing up in longer range guidance. Meanwhile, we begin to transition to warmer weather and a shift in gears to severe and tropical season. It is my hope that our new folks will stick around and continue discussions as we move forward. We’ve added a lot of new folks and created a lot of interest. Let’s not waste that opportunity as the days move forward and hopefully all that have contributed will continue to do so as that transition begins. We’ve grown and come along way since the early days, and that is a good thing, IMO.

I will stick around, though I must mention that the weather in Bell County is less adverse for every weather type we experience in Texas, except for flooding/flash flooding. I think this area sees extreme floods. I want to mention Hermine, but since that was a tropical system, that kind of goes contrary to my "adverse" comment. Hermine was a freak, but normally tropical systems rarely effect us & spring severe storms rarely have impact either.

[txagwxman]

Just a couple of after-event snow pictures.

1. Texas Panhandle. I love seeing the Canyon and Canadian River Valley following a snow event.



2. Big Country Snow from last night. Amounts up to 1-2" locally but you can see it is tied to the higher terrain. That may answer a few questions that were asked last night. Its pretty much all gone now.

If you look close, you can see the higher snow fall totals on top of the highest part of the canyon (near the edge).

[gpsnowman]

I think I will stick around also. This forum is just too good, not only for winter but for other seasons as well. My winter experience was enhanced greatly paying attention these pages over the past couple of months.
For what it's worth the Farmers Almanac predicts a late season blizzard for the Southern Plains March 24-27. Stranger things have happened. Mid week snow then warm is good!

[downsouthman1]

I think I will stick around also. This forum is just too good, not only for winter but for other seasons as well. My winter experience was enhanced greatly paying attention these pages over the past couple of months.
For what it's worth the Farmers Almanac predicts a late season blizzard for the Southern Plains March 24-27. Stranger things have happened. Mid week snow then warm is good!

Agreed. With what I've learned here about winter, I want to see my knowledge about spring storms & the tropics as well increase.

[missytingarland]

I'll still stick around. I rely on you guys more than others I see and read. And I've learned so much. I hope you can put up with my questions.

[newtotex]

I read a page or two back where someone was talking about overunning. Is this looking like its going to be another significant ice/sleet event?

[downsouthman1]

Great (extremely sarcastic). Stupid 18Z NAM is bringing cold air further south sooner.

[Portastorm]

Great (extremely sarcastic). Stupid 18Z NAM is bringing cold air further south sooner.

Kinda ironic to find yourself rooting AGAINST a winter weather event, isn't it?!

[downsouthman1]

Great (extremely sarcastic). Stupid 18Z NAM is bringing cold air further south sooner.

Kinda ironic to find yourself rooting AGAINST a winter weather event, isn't it?!

Yeah, but it is only because I know what ice does. & I have a Doctor's Appointment & Registration & Inspection to do on my car that day. If ice occurs, I will accomplish none of that. I'm all for snow, but I don't get the feeling that that's what we're talking about for Central TX.