Texas Winter 2010-2011

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iorange55
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7661 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:57 pm

I'm ready bring it on! Last winter storm for a long time, I'll enjoy in this one.
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#7662 Postby DentonGal » Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:59 pm

I'm ready too! I'm in the minority, but bring it on!
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Mom to 8 really is enough!

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7663 Postby downsouthman1 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:01 pm

WS Watches posted for all of NTX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7664 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:02 pm

That was a very good discussion coming out of the Fort Worth office this afternoon. Even went into detail on why the NAM was going loco on us !!!! But I've noticed it's slowly but surely coming back around
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7665 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:03 pm

GFS and UKMET aren't very different. That's good enough for me! With some support from the euro.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7666 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:10 pm

If these forecast verify, Major school districts across the metroplex could be shutting down schools for 6 days out of a 10 day stretch (4 days last week and 2 days this week) due to inclement winter weather. That has to be unprecedented for this area of the country !!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7667 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:13 pm

Hey orangeblood, what ratio's do you think would be accompanied with this system? Other than last Friday, I haven't seen such good temperature profiles for dendritic growth at DFW like it. You have several layers primed for it, especially in the mid levels.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7668 Postby txagwxman » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:23 pm

Well, let's hope wxman57's thoughts verify and we don't have much of anything post front to worry about. Meanwhile, where are all the Dallas folks? Sick of snow already? I saw a 12z GFS meteogram which showed 3-4 inches of snow for the Big D!




18z NAM 26F AUSTIN at noon now.Image
Last edited by txagwxman on Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7669 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:24 pm

downsouthman1 wrote:WS Watches posted for all of NTX.



Snippet from NWS FTW

RAPID CHANGES STILL LOOK TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT BY LATE EVENING
AND AFTER...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIRMASS DOWN HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO NW TX/OK/RED RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THE NE
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE AN INITIAL BACKDOOR OF CURRENT AIRMASS
STILL RESIDING OVER THE OZARKS AND TN VALLEY AND WILL BE JUST
REINFORCED MAINLY AS ARCTIC AIRMASS RACES IN FROM THE NNW AND
REACHES SE COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...UPPER
ENERGY NOW DEEPENING OVER NW STATES/WRN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN LIFT ESE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO USE ISALLOBARIC
VERTICAL MOTIONS TO QUICKLY SATURATE/COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
BY 12Z/DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
N/NW COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY MID
MORNING TO MIDDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...CANTON
LINE. DOWN SOUTH...THE TRANSITION WILL LIKELY OCCUR MORE AFTER
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE GOING TO A RAIN/SLEET
/SNOW MIX BY MIDDAY...THEN LIKELY JUST SLEET OR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE INCREASE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO 3-5 ALONG RED RIVER
VALLEY...TO 2-4 INCHES ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR...TO 1-3 JUST SOUTH OF
I-20 WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE
ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...ATHENS LINE.
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#7670 Postby txagwxman » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:41 pm

I think we are going to see sleet AUS/Brenham/CLL Wednesday afternoon after the front...there should just be enough moisture aloft, but it will quickly die from west to east...

-just my 2 cents.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7671 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:46 pm

NWS forecast. Looks like they are in line with the GFS.

Image

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7672 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:05 pm

Ntxw wrote:Hey orangeblood, what ratio's do you think would be accompanied with this system? Other than last Friday, I haven't seen such good temperature profiles for dendritic growth at DFW like it. You have several layers primed for it, especially in the mid levels.


You're right - it does look good but not quite like last Friday !! Last Friday's event look like it averaged out to be anywhere from 16-1 to 17-1 ratios. I think this event will average closer to the 14-1 range. That would put DFW right around the 4-5 inch mark because I'm not even sure any of that qpf will fall as the non-frozen variety.

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#7673 Postby gboudx » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:09 pm

I hope the ISD's wait for this week to be over before applying for that waiver from the state on missed school days due to weather. Our ISD will make up 2 of the 4 so far, and apply to waive the remaining.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7674 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:16 pm

orangeblood wrote:You're right - it does look good but not quite like last Friday !! Last Friday's event look like it averaged out to be anywhere from 16-1 to 17-1 ratios. I think this event will average closer to the 14-1 range. That would put DFW right around the 4-5 inch mark because I'm not even sure any of that qpf will fall as the non-frozen variety.


From the get go, I never really saw the rain/sleet/freezing rain thing. It always seemed to me like the precip was going to fall mostly in the cold deep air as snow. But of course fast moving fronts are unpredictable. Every temp profile I looked at had it deep enough for snow except maybe the brief switchover period but it's hard to tell with the lapses between frames. Maybe the NWS has better data for that than I, still just my two cents.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7675 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:You're right - it does look good but not quite like last Friday !! Last Friday's event look like it averaged out to be anywhere from 16-1 to 17-1 ratios. I think this event will average closer to the 14-1 range. That would put DFW right around the 4-5 inch mark because I'm not even sure any of that qpf will fall as the non-frozen variety.


From the get go, I never really saw the rain/sleet/freezing rain thing. It always seemed to me like the precip was going to fall mostly in the cold deep air as snow. But of course fast moving fronts are unpredictable. Every temp profile I looked at had it deep enough for snow except maybe the brief switchover period but it's hard to tell with the lapses between frames. Maybe the NWS has better data for that than I, still just my two cents.


Another difference with this storm when compared to last weeks, there is a lot more wind accompanying this one and so you might see more blowing and drifting snow than what most people are used to around here.


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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7676 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:27 pm

I'm hoping for some wind it makes for good video. I still think the amounts will go up a bit, I'm thinking closer to 5-6 inch area instead of 2-4.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7677 Postby downsouthman1 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:You're right - it does look good but not quite like last Friday !! Last Friday's event look like it averaged out to be anywhere from 16-1 to 17-1 ratios. I think this event will average closer to the 14-1 range. That would put DFW right around the 4-5 inch mark because I'm not even sure any of that qpf will fall as the non-frozen variety.


From the get go, I never really saw the rain/sleet/freezing rain thing. It always seemed to me like the precip was going to fall mostly in the cold deep air as snow. But of course fast moving fronts are unpredictable. Every temp profile I looked at had it deep enough for snow except maybe the brief switchover period but it's hard to tell with the lapses between frames. Maybe the NWS has better data for that than I, still just my two cents.


The HRRR will become our friend tomorrow.
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#7678 Postby Tejas89 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:32 pm

I don't ever remember this many snow days as a youngster growing up in Plano. Not even 1983-84. That event wasn't known for it's precip though. I'm guessing the most we ever had was 3, maybe 4 max. I am definitely not suggesting anything on the ISD's. These snow days would've been canceled back then too...
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7679 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:32 pm

iorange55 wrote:I'm hoping for some wind it makes for good video. I still think the amounts will go up a bit, I'm thinking closer to 5-6 inch area instead of 2-4.


You need to stick to your guns and go with that foot! Seriously, I agree with the 5-6 inch area. It appears this will be one of those situation we'll continue to keep updating amounts as the event unfolds lol doesn't that seem to happen around here a lot lately?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7680 Postby Parker_County1 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:42 pm

Thanks, wall_cloud, for the satellite images of west Texas showing last night's snowfall on the ground. That is interesting. You can really see the effect of elevation.

The coldest it got here during last night's rain was 36° at 10 pm during the heaviest rain. I don't know the temperature profile of the atmosphere at that time, but assuming about 4°/1000 feet, it it was probably snowing 1000 feet above me! The snow across Eastland County and Callahan County, just 90 miles west of me, tends to confirm that.

I have just briefly glanced at the 1800 GFS, and it looks as if some parts of south central and southeast Texas might just see some freezing or frozen precip this time. The Houston NWS discussion doesn't seem to think much of it but I don't see why not.
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