Texas Winter 2010-2011

[russham3]

We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:

http://www.stormspotter.com/client/texas/WinterWeather.php

For those who do not want to read the text part of the forecast, here is the forecast imagery:

http://www.stormspotter.com/client/texa ... ecastA.gif

Hopefully that heavy snow for the 3 am forecast goes about 20 miles further south than what you are showing.

[txagwxman]

That air is only 500 - 1000 meters thick!

[johnbasham]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tcu_wp.gif

That air is only 500 - 1000 meters thick!

Yikes! <-- My professional opinion.

[downsouthman1]

That air is only 500 - 1000 meters thick!

Yikes! <-- My professional opinion.

Seems implausible for such a small cold nose.

[russham3]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tcu_wp.gif

That air is only 500 - 1000 meters thick!

Ok, I'm def a newb, what does this mean?

[Jarodm12]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tcu_wp.gif

That air is only 500 - 1000 meters thick!

Ok, I'm def a newb, what does this mean?

WHAT DOSE THIS MEAN!!! LINK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQSNhk5ICTI

[txagwxman]

What it means is the computer models can't handle the shallow cold air...only 500 - 1000 meters thick!
That is why they are busting so bad in the Panhandle.

[jerryh421]

Lol thanks guys! That forecast looks good for me wintry mix almost over me!

[johnbasham]

txagwxman, If the 12z NAM precip numbers hold true and the shallow air-mass holds true that would be something.
See KFTW:

[russham3]

What it means is the computer models can't handle the shallow cold air...only 500 - 1000 meters thick!
That is why they are busting so bad in the Panhandle.

Makes sense. Thanks, the panhandle temps are dropping like a rock according to the Mesonet. Hereford is at 11 and Dimmitt is at 13.

[orangeblood]

Nearly all models are slowing the arrival of the cold front across the metroplex for Wednesday morning (not picking up on the shallow nature of the leading edge). If the front of the cold airmass is as shallow as txagwxman is showing when it arrives, the worst case scenario could be possible with this storm. A significant amount of freezing rain could fall before the transition over to snow once the depth of the cold air deepens enough.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Winter precip for us Houston folks is improving

[txagwxman]

Nearly all models are slowing the arrival of the cold front across the metroplex for Wednesday morning (not picking up on the shallow nature of the leading edge). If the front of the cold airmass is as shallow as txagwxman is showing when it arrives, the worst case scenario could be possible with this storm. A significant amount of freezing rain could fall before the transition over to snow once the depth of the cold air deepens enough.

Yea what ticks me is the latest 12z models are SLOWER.

Even the latest NCAR wrf backed off some.

[txagwxman]

Winter precip for us Houston folks is improving

NW side, not Houston proper.

[DonWrk]

So how do you depict this thing if the models are giving faulty numbers?

[wxman57]

Winter precip for us Houston folks is improving

I don't think so. It still looks like our precip will end long before temps drop to below freezing in the lower levels (and aloft). Maybe NW up in College Station where they could have a few sleet pellets and light freezing rain as precip ends.

[Jarodm12]

is there something that perhaps the models are picking up on that could indeed slow the arrival of the artic air shot in the dark perhaps the low pressure track?

[johnbasham]

Latest HRRR seems to be capturing the shallow layer of cold air (finally)

[downsouthman1]

I hate to admit this but my forecast tonight is "Rain likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%."

They're gonna have to figure something out about Low 30, Rain likely.

[Ntxw]

Our worst nightmare is coming true! The cold air is beating the models and to make it worse, the thing is shallow. Get prepped for ice imo below the snow.