Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Jarodm12]

btw new nam is initializing

[gpsnowman]

Look at the noon NAM for 12 hours. (06z)
WOW...and the 18 hr!

You are teasing some of us! Haha. What are they saying?

[johnbasham]

Look at the noon NAM for 12 hours. (06z)
WOW...and the 18 hr!

For those of us that don't have access to those runs, how crazy are they? Or are they not crazy? What is the verdict?

Sorry, Here is a closeup of Texas 850mb with SFC radar projection. Note the 0c and -10c lines on the 850mb.

[txagwxman]

Yea that is 25F CLL at noon, and ice/sleet Tomball to CLL...

[DonWrk]

I'm guessing a big ice event from the nam?

[johnbasham]

Yea that is 25F CLL at noon.

And this is the NAM which trends warm and slow on these events.
Very interesting.

[gpsnowman]

The WSW page on CBS 11 has the latest update timed at almost 4:30 in the morning. Will an updated version be coming soon? The totals seem a bit low atm.

[Jarodm12]

latest nam shafts oklahoma leaves tx with same amount or precip except near whichita falls where its cuts there precip down alot. temps are colder though

[orangeblood]

The combination of the stronger LLJ (more moisture) and faster cold front push could equate to a much more widespread ice event across the southern half of North Texas into east Texas.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[jerryh421]

Around what time is precip expecting to end around NW Houston area??

[jwayne]

Conroe area at noon? Gonna be close call on roads? Would be messed up if missed on high side last week then completely missed on low side this week!!

[jerryh421]

Conroe area at noon? Gonna be close call on roads?

Yea I live in Montgomery so i was thinking the same thing...

[txagwxman]

Conroe area at noon? Gonna be close call on roads?

NAM 28-29F Tomball to Katy at noon with precip slowly winding down.

[orangeblood]

The WSW page on CBS 11 has the latest update timed at almost 4:30 in the morning. Will an updated version be coming soon? The totals seem a bit low atm.

I rarely ever pay attention to any news stations around DFW. I've found during past events that the best estimates are on here and sometimes the National Weather Service.

[Cuda17]

NWS HGX just took us (Bellville) out of the all rain and put us in the wintry mix category for tomorrow!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=29.958504019413528&lon=-96.25877380371094&site=hgx&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

[jwayne]

Conroe area at noon? Gonna be close call on roads?

NAM 28-29F Tomball to Katy at noon with precip slowly winding down.

Well, that would mean two hours or so of precip at or below freezing for nw suburbs of Houston?

[wxman57]

Look at the noon NAM for 12 hours. (06z)
WOW...and the 18 hr!

I'm not noticing anything different from the 12Z run for those times. What are you referring to?

[Turtle]

The 40% is now taking a good chunk of the OK/TX border.

[srainhoutx]

HGX point and click forecasts are updating. Waller now in the freezing rain/drizzle, for what it's worth. That is certainly S and E of Brenham. The SPS has also been removed from the HGX site. Perhaps an update coming?

[gpsnowman]

Darn, I have to go to work soon. Can somebody update front and ULL positions please? Won't be able to check on things for a while.