Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

If that Low could pop 100 miles south of where they think it will. I would really appreciate it.

[Tstormwatcher]

With the models wakening up now, can someone give us in NC an idea of what we can expect? Sounds to me like the Sandhills and the coast may be in the sweet spot.

Our local mets in the New Bern area are saying 2 to 4 inches with spot of up to 5 inches.

[zippity]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
343 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST CENTERS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WEAKENS AS
IT SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX.
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
CROSSES THE AREA...AND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATE...SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AND ITS SOLUTION WAS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED.
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF/SREF SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT THE COLUMN WILL FULLY SATURATE NEAR MSL AROUND 22Z...AND AT HSV
BY 00Z. CUTTING A CROSS SECTION THROUGH THE CWFA INDICATES THAT THE
BEST FGEN/OMEGA COUPLET LOCATED WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WHICH LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH MODEL DERIVED
PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THE EVENT WILL END NEARLY AS QUICKLY AS IT
BEGINS AS THE MIDLEVELS DRY OUT BY ABOUT 07Z AT MSL /AND 09Z AT
HSV/. WHILE SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS...MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL REALLY OCCUR DURING A
SHORT WINDOW OF ABOUT 6 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...DID NOT HAVE TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MIDSHIFT. DID END THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MORE QUICKLY...BUT 12:1 RATIOS LEAD TO GENERAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND TWO INCHES. OF COURSE...THERE IS SOME CSI
WHICH SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION...WHICH
WOULD LEND TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO FOUR INCHES. WILL
KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES AND
LEAVE THE FINAL DECISION TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

[Metalicwx220]

18Z GFS...Heaviest snow now forecast for the southern portions of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.

IT MIGHT JUST HAPPEN IM EXCITED AND TIRED FROM TRACK AND FIELD. this is my new background.

[bella_may]

Weather channel is forecasting a mix in lucedale,ms wednesday night! (About 30 mins north of I-10)

[TideJoe]

Weather channel is forecasting a mix in lucedale,ms wednesday night! (About 30 mins north of I-10)

And they forecast rain for Hattiesburg...... LOL

However, NWS has rain, sleet, snow in the forecast for Weds night and early Thursday morning.

[Ynotndalton]

Birmingham CUTTING RIGHT TO THE CHASE -- THE GFS MODEL HAS TRENDED IN A WETTER
DIRECTION COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT`S RUNS...AND IS NOW CLOSER TO
BEING IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS IN LIQUID QPF. I NOTICED THAT THE
(06Z) GFS WAS FORECASTING SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE (12Z) NAM DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. I SUSPECT
THAT THIS FORECASTED NEAR SURFACE DRYNESS WAS AT LEAST ONE OF THE
REASONS THAT THE GFS` QPF WAS LOWER -- THE GFS HAD MORE LOW LEVEL
EVAPORATION TO OVERCOME BEFORE TAKING PRECIP ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. NOT SURE WHY THE GFS HAD THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS.
PERHAPS IT WAS ADVECTING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER TOP OF THE SNOW
PACK TO OUR NORTH MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WELL...IT HAS
TRENDED IN THE MORE MOIST DIRECTION...WHICH MEANS THAT IT HAS ALSO
TRENDED ITS RESULTANT QPF UPWARD. SO THAT GREATLY REDUCES THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THERE ENDS UP BEING VIRTUALLY NO PRECIP HERE
TOMORROW NIGHT.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...I AM FEELING PRETTY GOOD ABOUT OUR ONGOING
FORECAST AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES BASED ON THE MORNING
MODEL RUNS. IF EVERYTHING PANS OUT AS PER THE MODELS...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GET BY WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS.
PERHAPS JUST A FEW COUNTIES EVENTUALLY NEEDED A WINTER STORM
WARNING. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL I SEE IS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE A SHOT AT MORE THAN
TWO INCHES...BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THEY WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME WITH TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. ANOTHER AREA
THAT COULD GET MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS FROM SUMTER COUNTY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO PERRY OR CHILTON COUNTY. THIS AREA MAY BE IN THE
QPF/TEMPERATURE SWEET SPOT...WHERE TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH AND
QPF IS ENHANCED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CHARTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE AN AREA TO WATCH
FOR A MESOSCALE TYPE ENHANCED BAND TO SET UP. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY...I WOULD FEEL A BIT BETTER
INCLUDING MARENGO...PERRY...AND CHILTON COUNTIES IN THE WINTER
STORM WATCH.

FARTHER TO THE EAST IS A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR...SO TO SPEAK. ALL
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. I AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL (BE DIMINISHING). IN FACT...LOOKING AT THE
CONDITIONS AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON...I`M STARTING TO WONDER IF THIS THING MAY ACTUALLY
BE STRONGER THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WHEN IT ARRIVES HERE. I
MEAN...THERE`S A 60 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS JUST A 200 MILE AREA IN
WEST TEXAS...WITH WINDS BLOWING 30 KNOTS VIRTUALLY DIRECTLY TOWARD
EACH OTHER. THAT`S A LOT OF FRONTOGENESIS AND BAROCLINICITY. I CAN
ONLY IMAGINE A SURFACE LOW REALLY GETTING CRANKED UP BEYOND WHAT
THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. TRANSLATE THAT
DOWNSTREAM...AND THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD HAVE
A MUCH LARGER 2+ INCHES SNOW AREA THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. SO --
ASIDE FROM THE ADDITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES WILL NOT
MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA EVEN THOUGH
IT MAY SEEM TO CONFLICT A LITTLE WITH OUR CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST.

[timmeister]

3 PM CST Forecast for the Hattiesburg Area

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

LAZ024>026-MSZ051>066-072>074-092115-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
302 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD KEEP UP TO
DATE ON THE LATEST OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF WINTER WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

[timmeister]

This map is for 6AM CST and only shows a "Wintry Mix" for much of Mississippi and Louisiana with all snow in extreme NW Arkansas and extreme SE Missouri.

[Ivanhater]

I like that map

[timmeister]

I like that map

Here's another map (36 Hour) for 6PM CST tomorrow:

[timmeister]

NWS Jackson Precipitation Timing Map

[BigB0882]

Looking better, I will take a mix event! I just want to see SOME flakes.

[Metalicwx220]

I want to see some flakes before the storms over. Hope the 0z models show something better.

[timmeister]

If this WRF Map is correct, Hattiesburg will only see rain or a mix rain/snow.

[Metalicwx220]

How do you look at truepoint radar from weather.com?

[Kennethb]

If we can get that front to slide through a little earlier and get that low to form a little slower then we could be in business down south. Snow pack to our north should be an asset. This is event similar to the second snow of 1973 (February 9, 1.8 inches) here in Baton Rouge when we had a strong front pass through around noon and the wave developed and came through the early morning hours the following day and gave us a couple of surprise inches of sleet and snow. This is our chance. It could snow tomorrow night as it might not be another 10 years or more until we see snow again.

[timmeister]

How do you look at truepoint radar from weather.com?

Here's the link:

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/

[Metalicwx220]

Next year!! Ummm.... El nino I think. Remember someone mentioned something about more brutal winters.

[ksstormhunter]

Hey guys, just pushed out fresh smartmodel runs for 01Z. Also looking at snowfall potential for the northern parts of LA, AL, MS, GA. Looking at a general 1-3 snow accumulations, Greenville, MS was showing 2.9" possible, Atlanta was 1.5" and Birmingham was about 1.5" also Any thoughts or updates out there.