Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

FWIW 23z HRRR ALOT further north.. Less precip in DFW but all freezing rain!

What sucks about that is that the HRRR has had success lately, so it's not to be ignored.

Long range HRRR is about reliable as NAM/GFS long range. Last Friday it developed snow in SAT AUS, thurs morning...didn't happen.

Yeah it was on and off about having the precip build in the right place, but that is close to the only thing it got right really last time. The first storm though it did do a decent job.

[orangeblood]

FWIW 23z HRRR ALOT further north.. Less precip in DFW but all freezing rain!

Not sure what you're looking at ?? Are you comparing it to previous HRRR runs ?? Because it is slowly showing the accumulating snow line creeping south with each successive run...meaning it is picking up on the cold air pushing further south than what most models are currently forecasting.

[downsouthman1]

What sucks about that is that the HRRR has had success lately, so it's not to be ignored.

Long range HRRR is about reliable as NAM/GFS long range. Last Friday it developed snow in SAT AUS, thurs morning...didn't happen.

Yeah it was on and off about having the precip build in the right place, but that is close to the only thing it got right really last time. The first storm though it did do a decent job.

I'm sorry. I should've clarified that I was referring to short term. Also, I noticed it seems to show a tiny little wraparound band. I wonder how far south that'll sink.

[SouthernMet]

FWIW 23z HRRR ALOT further north.. Less precip in DFW but all freezing rain!

What sucks about that is that the HRRR has had success lately, so it's not to be ignored.

Thats what im worried about.. It has pegged the last few systems. It's our short term king..

Lets see how this plays out though. This is the one period when you can honestly take the models with a grain of salt, because you are currently watching it begin to unfold..(The evolution over the panhandles atm)

[txagwxman]

Wow 46F here in Houston...water temps in the N. Gulf are very cold it seems.

[Ntxw]

The problem with the HRRR at this range is, the precip making it to DFW is not the stuff in N Oklahoma/Kansas. It's convective around Amarillo to Childress. HRRR has problems when it comes out of nowhere. Just something I've picked up from the previous two storms.

[Metalicwx220]

FWIW 23z HRRR ALOT further north.. Less precip in DFW but all freezing rain!

What sucks about that is that the HRRR has had success lately, so it's not to be ignored.

Thats what im worried about.. It has pegged the last few systems. It's our short term king..

Lets see how this plays out though. This is the one period when you can honestly take the models with a grain of salt, because you are currently watching it begin to unfold..(The evolution over the panhandles atm)

Could be temporary... next update in 20 mins I think. Nevermind its currrently updating.

[downsouthman1]

The problem with the HRRR at this range is, the precip making it to DFW is not the stuff in N Oklahoma/Kansas. It's convective around Amarillo to Childress. HRRR has problems when it comes out of nowhere. Just something I've picked up from the previous two storms.

I would agree. However, it did see the precip form in south central TX that was last week's last DFW snowfall. It just didn't see it as convective.

[Ntxw]

The problem with the HRRR at this range is, the precip making it to DFW is not the stuff in N Oklahoma/Kansas. It's convective around Amarillo to Childress. HRRR has problems when it comes out of nowhere. Just something I've picked up from the previous two storms.

I would agree. However, it did see the precip form in south central TX that was last week's last DFW snowfall. It just didn't see it as convective.

It saw it as it was happening. When I was looking at it from the day before, it did a horrible job. I remember complaining how all the models were terrible even the RUC and HRRR. Kept trying to push everything into East Texas. Once the batch finally formed over GRK (georgetown about 2 hours before) it caught on.

[SouthernMet]

Could be temporary... next update in 20 mins I think.

Possible.. Thats why I said FWIW

[downsouthman1]

The problem with the HRRR at this range is, the precip making it to DFW is not the stuff in N Oklahoma/Kansas. It's convective around Amarillo to Childress. HRRR has problems when it comes out of nowhere. Just something I've picked up from the previous two storms.

I would agree. However, it did see the precip form in south central TX that was last week's last DFW snowfall. It just didn't see it as convective.

It saw it as it was happening. When I was looking at it from the day before, it did a horrible job. I remember complaining how all the models were terrible even the RUC and HRRR. Kept trying to push everything into East Texas. Once the batch finally formed over GRK (georgetown about 2 hours before) it caught on.

OK, I can completely agree with that statement.

I do want to mention that that band moving into Amarillo is pretty intense.

[SouthernMet]

FWIW 23z HRRR ALOT further north.. Less precip in DFW but all freezing rain!

Not sure what you're looking at ?? Are you comparing it to previous HRRR runs ?? Because it is slowly showing the accumulating snow line creeping south with each successive run...meaning it is picking up on the cold air pushing further south than what most models are currently forecasting.

It's begining to sniff that out... But atm, through 15hrs out from now, shows no snow in DFW just freezing rain.

[downsouthman1]

FWIW 23z HRRR ALOT further north.. Less precip in DFW but all freezing rain!

Not sure what you're looking at ?? Are you comparing it to previous HRRR runs ?? Because it is slowly showing the accumulating snow line creeping south with each successive run...meaning it is picking up on the cold air pushing further south than what most models are currently forecasting.

It's begining to sniff that out... But atm 15hrs out from now, shows no snow in DFW just freezing rain.

New NAM is initializing. At 6 hours, cold air is slightly further south, with same precip.

Edit: Actually less precip at that time. Seems like it may be trying to slow down the shortwave.

[Metalicwx220]

The problem with the HRRR at this range is, the precip making it to DFW is not the stuff in N Oklahoma/Kansas. It's convective around Amarillo to Childress. HRRR has problems when it comes out of nowhere. Just something I've picked up from the previous two storms.

I would agree. However, it did see the precip form in south central TX that was last week's last DFW snowfall. It just didn't see it as convective.

It saw it as it was happening. When I was looking at it from the day before, it did a horrible job. I remember complaining how all the models were terrible even the RUC and HRRR. Kept trying to push everything into East Texas. Once the batch finally formed over GRK (georgetown about 2 hours before) it caught on.

Its coming from the GOM.

[Metalicwx220]

I see plain rain most of the Hrrr Run lol. Some places may get their advisories cancelled or its just a fluke run.

[downsouthman1]

I see plain rain most of the Hrrr Run lol. Some places may get their advisories cancelled or its just a fluke run.

It's probably doing what NTXW said earlier, missing on the mid-range stuff.

[iorange55]

I see plain rain most of the Hrrr Run lol. Some places may get their advisories cancelled or its just a fluke run.

I doubt they'd cancel an advisory because of an HRRR run.

[downsouthman1]

Pecos, which earlier was like 82, is 34 now. Amazing!

[wall_cloud]

As if it wasn't bad enough in Amarillo, its about to get worse...

currently:

KAMA 090153Z 36030G36KT 1/2SM R04/4000V6000FT SN BLSN BR BKN010 OVC026 M18/M19
A3016 RMK AO2 PK WND 36038/0141 SLP256 P0000 T11781194=

1/2 mile visibility, 0 F, north wind at 35 mph (gusts 42 mph) with a wind chill of -27 F.

heavy snowband has set up.

[DonWrk]

Amarillo just needs visibility to reduce to 1/4 to be in a true blizzard.