Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST TUE FEB 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAD WEDNESDAY.THIS WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC TO JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EAST
AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE
DISSIPATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ...EXPECT THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY TRADES TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.
THE PROXIMITY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AVAILABLE TRADE
WIND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF EARLY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER... WITH THE PREVAILING MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TIL WEDNESDAY ....FORESEE NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FAST MOVING AND OF
SHORT DURATION. SOME OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...CAUSING BRIEF INCONVENIENCES.

LONG TERM WISE...INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY TUTT AXIS WHICH
IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY...
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST...THEN REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SATURDAY.
IT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...
AND THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA... A WEEK FROM NOW...THEN LATER
SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS. IF SO...THIS WILL BRING A
WETTER PATTERN TO THE LOCAL AREA... AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC..AND PUSH THE FRONTAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS HOWEVER STILL SOME WAYS
OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 12 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 08/21Z DUE
TO SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES MAY RESULT IN
PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX
AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 84 / 40 40 30 30
STT 74 84 74 85 / 40 40 30 30

[Macrocane]

I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations of the cold surge that we had on the weekend. The lows registered this morning in some locations were still pretty cool, right now a high pressure is producing northerly winds across the region and has pushed a cold front down to the Gulf of Honduras and may produce even cooler temps tonight and tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
920 PM AST TUE FEB 8 2011

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE INTENSITY MOVED WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. DURING THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...FORESEE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FAST MOVING AND OF SHORT
DURATION.

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST...REACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY SATURDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO THE REGION INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ...LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

[Macrocane]

-Cool (near normal) minimum temperatures persist in Guatemala and El Salvador.
-Belize, Costa Rica and Panama had near normal lows too, Irazu volcano in Costa Rica was unusually cold though.
-Nicaragua and Honduras had above normal minimum temps.
-The maximum temps were near normal in the whole region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.6°C (52.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.6°C (58.3°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.3°C (36.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.9°C (64.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.7°C (99.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 25.4°C (77.7°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.6°C (58.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.7°C (72.9°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED FEB 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER PATCH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE USVI...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DRY POCKET BEHIND
THESE SHOWERS...SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING MORE PATCHES MOVING
TOWARD THE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AND REACH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN THE
ENVIRONMENT MOIST THROUGH MID WEEK. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THIS MOISTURE
WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT GENERATING A BETTER ENVIRONMENT
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 12 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHALLOW
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW WILL BE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. SCA ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
WATERS...OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGIONAL WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY TO A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 84 73 / 40 30 30 20
STT 84 73 85 75 / 40 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST WED FEB 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS A POLAR TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA AND
THE MONA PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THEREFORE...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT... LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDINESS AND PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN OF MORNING
SHOWERS AFFECTING SECTIONS OF EASTERN PR/THE VI...AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH PROBABLY SATURDAY. BEST MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
REGION...AND THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS WITH
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN PASSING LOW LEVEL CLDS
AND SHRA VCNTY OF TIST...TISX...TJSJ...TJNR...TJBQ AND TJMZ TIL
09/23Z. TEMPO MVFR ALSO PSBL TIL 09/23Z ACROSS NRN LEEWARDS DUE TO
PASSING CLDS AND SHRA. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL WITH PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR. E-SE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW BTW 15-25 KTS FM SFC-20K FT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WEATHER
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES
TO SUSTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 73 83 / 30 30 20 20
STT 72 81 74 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
934 PM AST WED FEB 9 2011

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS MOVED WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES CULEBRA AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
MOSTLY LIGHT. DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED
AS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FAST MOVING AND OF SHORT DURATION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST...REACHING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN PASSING LOW LEVEL CLDS
AND SHRA VCNTY OF TIST...TISX...TJSJ...TJNR TIL 10/12Z. E-SE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW BTW 15-25 KTS FM SFC-20K FT. NO OTHER SIG
OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

[Macrocane]

-Yesterday cold front only had effects in the minimum temperatures of Belize, Guatemala, parts of Honduras and teh high areas of El Salvador. The rest of the region had similar or warmer temps than yesterday.
-The entire region had near normal maximum temperatures.
-Panama city registered the warmest temperature this year so far.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -0.3°C (31.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.5°C (45.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.9°C (57.0°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.6°C (40.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.1°C (98.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.7°C (80.1°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.6°C (81.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST THU FEB 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER THE SE U.S. WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ESE TOWARD THE ALTANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
BETWEEN 0.1 TO .3 INCHES. STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIED THESE
SHOWERS...THE LMM AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED A GUST OF 31 MPH AT AROUND
10 PM. THE STRONGEST GUST SINCE MIDNIGHT WAS 21 MPH AT LMM AIRPORT.

SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING MOST OF THESE SHOWERS MOVING WEST
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. A MUCH DRIER MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT BEHIND THIS DRY POCKET...SATELLITE
IMAGES ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
TOWARD THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH
WHICH WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN PASSING LOW LEVEL CLDS
AND SHRA VCNTY OF TIST...TISX...TJSJ...TJNR...TJBQ AND TJMZ TIL
09/23Z. TEMPO MVFR ALSO PSBL TIL 09/23Z ACROSS NRN LEEWARDS DUE TO
PASSING CLDS AND SHRA. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL WITH PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR. E-SE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW BTW 15-25 KTS FM SFC-20K FT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WEATHER
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES
TO SUSTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. THE WW3 AND THE SWAN MODEL AGREE ON CHOPPY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...
THEREFORE SCA ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF
SHORE WATERS AND EASTERN PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 73 / 30 20 20 10
STT 84 74 85 76 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST THU FEB 10 2011

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FURTHER EAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ARE ANTICIPATED EACH
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
CONCENTRATE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN OF MORNING
SHOWERS AFFECTING SECTIONS OF EASTERN PR/THE VI...AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION...AND THUS INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL
WATERS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW
IT UNFOLDS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z. TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN PASSING LOW LEVEL CLDS
11/00Z-11/12Z FOR TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUSTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 73 / 30 20 20 20
STT 84 74 85 75 / 30 20 20 10

[tropicana]

Thu Feb 10 2011

The surge in moisture brought more beneficial rainfall to the extreme Southern Windward Islands, in particular to Trinidad.
The island's Airport, in Central Trinidad, saw 14mm of rain in 6 hours to 2pm local time, and a further 22mm to 8pm local time, bringing the day's total to 36 mm ( 1.5 inches). This is an unusual amount for a February day, a month that is typically the 2nd driest of the year ( second only to March).

February 2011 has so far recorded approx 45 mm of rain.


-justin-

[Macrocane]

Today Belize had above average minimum temps and Honduras below average, the rest of the region experienced near normal highs and lows. By the way a moderate to strong cold surge is going to affect the region this weekend and early next week, it seems that this time is not going to be a bust as the models are in good agreement and the forecast is in the short/medium range, the SNET in El Salvador issued today the first report on the event.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.3°C (36.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.0°C (48.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.5°C (56.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F) This is the coolest high in this city in Febraury so far.
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.9°C (96.6°F) This is the coolest high in this city since January 28.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 25.1°C (77.2°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.5°C (77.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.2°C (93.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
827 PM AST THU FEB 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
WEAKEN/ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TUTT LOW OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN
LIFTS OVR TOP OF THE RIDGE AND POLAR TROUGH ACROSS ERN NOAM MOVES
INTO THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGHER
TPW AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
SCT RANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH DRIER AIR WITH PW VALUES
UNDER AN INCH CAN BE SEEN EAST OF THE LEEWARDS PER BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY AND THIS IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SO ONLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.

RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE VORTICES
MOVE OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE. FIRST...TUTT LOW OVR THE CNTRL
CARIBBEAN IS FCST TO LIFT NORTH OVR THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY
SUN. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK H25 JET STREAK
THAT SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...VEERING
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA SUN MORNING. SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ISLAND TO
SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS. SUN AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING MATERIALIZES AS
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL.

MON-TUE...AXIS OF DEEP POLAR TROUGH ACROSS ERN NOAM WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST WITH WESTERLIES FCST TO GRAZE THE AREA. THIS HELP PUSH A
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR AREA LATE TUE OR WED. MOISTURE
SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE AND EXPECT THAT WE`LL SEE
BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVR THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT
AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD HELP FOCUS MORE SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEAST PR.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT JSJ/USVI/LEEWARDS
TERMINALS AS SHOWERS INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SUN MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6-8 FT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS IN EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. A SMALL NORTH SWELL WILL ALSO
BUILD ACROSS THESE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TWO MORE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
FRI AND SAT BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY SUN AND HELPS
BRING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW MORNING MAY HELP
MITIGATE FIRE DANGER THREAT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT SAT
LOOKS LIKE WX CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR WILDLAND FIRES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 30 10 10
STT 85 74 85 75 / 30 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST FRI FEB 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FURTHER EAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.
THE INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER...AS A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION ENHANCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS. THESE
PATTERN OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY AND SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD BECOME
MORE OFTEN AS A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 56 HOURS. GFS AND THE ECMWF
AGREE ON THIS FRONT STALLING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT TO GENERATE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE INCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SCA ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ALL
LOCAL PASSAGES. ALTHOUGH NEAR SHORE BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT
BELOW SCA CRITERIA...MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTIONS
ACROSS THESE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 85 73 / 40 10 20 60
STT 84 74 85 75 / 40 10 20 60

[cycloneye]

Hey Eastern Caribbean friends. A change from the dry weather pattern to a more wet one is instored from Sunday thru mid week so prepare for that.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST FRI FEB 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES. THEREFORE...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FORM TIME TO TIME. AT
THIS TIME...SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN OF A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS OF
EASTERN PR/THE VI...AND SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST MOISTURE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ON SUNDAY...A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION...AND THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ITS
ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY AFT 12/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. SCA ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VENTILATION AND MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10
THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR INDICATIONS SHOW SMOKE
EXTENDING FROM A FIRE IN SALINAS WESTWARD THROUGH JUANA DIAZ AND
THEN NORTHWEST TO AIBONITO. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FIRE MANAGEMENT
DIFFICULT UNTIL AFT 11/22Z. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO NORTHEAST AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 83 / 20 20 60 60
STT 75 85 75 84 / 10 10 60 60

[tropicana]

Fri Feb 11 2011

Further showers through the overnight hours brought the monthly total for February 2011 to 58.8mm at Piarco International Airport, Trinidad. Crown Point, Tobago saw showers but a much lesser amount of 5mm was recorded. Across at Point Salines, Grenada, 17.3mm fell overnight.

AT Grantley Adams Airport, Barbados, February rainfall stands at 19.8mm to 6pm ET local time tonight.

Showers were much more abundant down in the Guyanas. At Cayenne, French Guiana, over 60 mm of rain fell over the last 24 hours to 2pm local time today.
Heavy even for this part of South America this time of the year.

-justin-

[Macrocane]

-Near normal minimum temperatures were registered this morning in Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama the other countries had well above normal lows.
-Near normal highs were exprienced in all the countries except for Guatemala and the mountainous areas of Belize, El Salvador and Honduras that had cooler than normal highs.
The cold surge is expected to begin tonight so cooler temperatures should be experienced on the next few days.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.6°C (34.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.5°C (56.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.7°C (40.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.3°C (59.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.9°C (80.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (71°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.7°C (60.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.8°C (100.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 25.6°C (78.1°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST FRI FEB 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUN. BROAD MID UPPER LEVEL POLAR
TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WRN ATLC EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND HELP PUSH A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
PW VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AS SEEN ON 00Z RAOB AND LATEST BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE/CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE GETTING
SHUNTED FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY OVER LAND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN TROF AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUN. LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS FEATURE
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SIG SURGE IN MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES UP
TO 2.0 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SUN AND
SCT TO POSSIBLY NMRS SHOWERS. COULD SEE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WEST IF ENOUGH HEATING MATERIALIZES.

AXIS OF BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL POLAR TROUGH ACROSS ERN NOAM WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE WRN ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GRAZE THE AREA ON
TUE. THIS HELP PUSH A SHEARLINE THROUGH THE AREA WED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING EAST TO WEST ALIGNED ALONG 20N MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW THIS BDRY OR THE REMNANTS
OF IT EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS PR AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A VERY SLOW
PROCESS HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY THRU. THIS ALSO HAS STRONG SUPPORT
FROM MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WOULD
GUARANTEE THAT THE NORTH COAST WILL EXPERIENCE COOLER TEMPS AND
MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OF RAINFALL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS XCPT JMZ/JBQ WHERE AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSRA COULD RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 6-7 FT THRU SUN IN EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SMALL NORTH SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY INTENSE FIRES DEVELOPED TODAY IN SABANA
GRANDE...JUANA DIAZ AND ESPECIALLY SALINAS. THINGS HAVE CALM DOWN
FOR TONIGHT. NEAR DROUGHT CONDITIONS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SIG IMPROVEMENT ON FIRE WX CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUN WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 83 / 10 20 60 60
STT 75 85 75 84 / 20 20 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT FEB 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. BROAD MID UPPER LEVEL POLAR
TROUGH ACROSS ERN NOAM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HELP PUSH A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE...AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A MUCH DRIER AIR MAS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL LIMIT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINED TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE USVI.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON
CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATER WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE THEREFORE SCA CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO END AS SOON AS
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 73 / 20 60 60 30
STT 84 74 84 75 / 20 60 60 20