Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wall_cloud]

I'm sure they'll be quite happy without it

[DonWrk]

This may have been posted earlier not sure.

Via FW NWS Facebook.

The cold front currently lies along a line from Muskogee OK to Oklahoma City to Frederick OK to near Wink TX. By daybreak, the front is expected to be along a line from Sherman to Hillsboro to Lampasas. Precipitation will begin as rain but quickly transition to a winter mix or all snow depending on your location. By daybreak, locations behind the front will likely already be experiencing significant impacts.

[SouthernMet]

00z NAM looks better to me. 00z HRRR right now still has mostly freezing rain but further south towards the end.

[DonWrk]

I'm sure they'll be quite happy without it

Yeah I made it sound like I was rooting for them to hit blizzard standards lol

[Turtle]

The snow amounts over TX seems lower with the 00z NAM. Does that mean more ice?

[downsouthman1]

I'm sure they'll be quite happy without it

Yeah I made it sound like I was rooting for them to hit blizzard standards lol

To be a blizzard, a snow storm must have winds in excess of 35 mph with blowing or drifting snow which reduces visibility to ¼ mile or less and must last for a prolonged period of time — typically three hours or more.

That band to their west seems as if it'll last longer than that. The wind is there. So, you're right. Visibility, which will probably fall as blowing snow reduces it.

Wichita Falls is next in line for the front.

[Ntxw]

Is that a 999 surface low in the big bend area? Lol

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html



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[srainhoutx]

Is that a 999 surface low in the big bend area? Lol

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html

I see someone woke up...

[citymgr]

FYI

Power Watch – Conservation Needed
Grid Operator Taking Extra Steps to Avoid Electricity Shortage as Severe Cold Weather Returns

“The National Weather Service is anticipating severe cold weather statewide this week, as another arctic air mass is expected to reach deep into Texas, dropping temperatures back into the teens and twenties,” said Trip Doggett, CEO, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid operator for the state.

EXTRA GENERATION RESERVED FOR NEXT FEW DAYS
“In anticipation of this severe cold weather, ERCOT will procure additional generation capacity for real-time operations to help maintain reliable delivery of power during this extreme weather event over the next few days,” he said.

Wednesday’s peak demand is currently projected to be more than 54,000 MW between 8-9 p.m. , and more than 58,000 – which would be a new winter record – between 7-8 a.m. on Thursday. The current winter peak demand record is 56,334 MW which occurred Feb. 3, between 7 and 8 a.m.

The grid continues to have about 2,700 MW of generation capacity unavailable because of unplanned or forced outages.

“Although we have no immediate concerns for the possibility of rotating outages tomorrow morning, ERCOT will be monitoring the grid closely because additional unexpected major losses of generation could force operators and utilities to begin emergency procedures to avoid an uncontrolled statewide blackout,” Doggett said. “Rotating outages are ordered only as a last resort to ensure the security of the statewide transmission grid. “

CONSERVATION TIPS
Turn thermostats to 68 degrees or below in the daytime and to 55 degrees at night or when leaving for the day.
Turn off and un-plug non-essential lights and appliances.
Avoid running large appliances such as washers, dryers, and electric ovens during peak energy demand hours.
Close shades and blinds at night to reduce the amount of heat lost through windows.
Businesses should minimize the use of electric lighting and electricity-consuming equipment as much as possible.
Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.
See more conservation tips at “Powerful Advice,” Public Utility Commission of Texas:
http://www.puc.state.tx.us./ocp/conserve

ROTATING OUTAGES BACKGROUND
Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electrical service, initiated by ERCOT when the power needed to run the grid is not matched by the power being provided by generation companies. In these situations, ERCOT instructs utilities to reduce consumer demand on the grid by conducting temporary outages at the local distribution level. The utilities determine the locations and durations of the rotating outages.

While each transmission/distribution service provider submits an emergency plan to ERCOT, ERCOT has no control over, nor knowledge of, individual customer outages.

WHO TO CALL FOR OUTAGE INFORMATION?
For information about the how the utilities implement rotating outages and exemptions, call the transmission and distribution service provider on your electric bill.

Consumer Assistance Hotline
Public Utility Commission Hotline – 1-888-782-8777

[iorange55]

Is that a 999 surface low in the big bend area? Lol

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html

I see someone woke up...

Mighty powerful!!! Did any of the models forecast that? I can't remember.

[kb75007]

Is that a 999 surface low in the big bend area? Lol

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html

I see someone woke up...

Mighty powerful!!! Did any of the models forecast that? I can't remember.

What do you mean by 999 surface low?

[downsouthman1]

Is that a 999 surface low in the big bend area? Lol

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Is that Low in the Panhandle in the last few frames traveling SE!?

[Ntxw]

What do you mean by 999 surface low?

By comparison, I think last Tuesday's blizzard over Chicago was at it's max around 998 or something. It was 1000-1004 over Texas.

0z NAM says it's 1012-1004 atm LOL what a joke...12z had 1008. It is waaaay underestimating this system.

[kb75007]

What do you mean by 999 surface low?

By comparison, I think last Tuesday's blizzard over Chicago was at it's max around 998 or something. It was 1000-1004 over Texas.

Wow, thats interesting.. What exactly do the numbers represent? Feet?

[South Texas Storms]

What do you mean by 999 surface low?

By comparison, I think last Tuesday's blizzard over Chicago was at it's max around 998 or something. It was 1000-1004 over Texas.

Wow, thats interesting.. What exactly do the numbers represent? Feet?

Surface pressure, in millibars (mb).

[kb75007]

What do you mean by 999 surface low?

By comparison, I think last Tuesday's blizzard over Chicago was at it's max around 998 or something. It was 1000-1004 over Texas.

0z NAM says it's 1012-1004 atm LOL what a joke...12z had 1008. It is waaaay underestimating this system.

Based on the models and current conditions does it look like it will actually be more impacting than expected?

[Ntxw]

Based on the models and current conditions does it look like it will actually be more impacting than expected?

I'm not sure exactly what it will do. But GFS at 12z also had 1004. Models are under doing it, it's a lot more powerful (based on pressure) than progged.

[txagwxman]

00z NAM 28-29F Tomball at 21Z...Katy 28F...

I think we will see ice on overpasses Katy to Tomball...hopefully it will be light precip and precip ends quickly.

[kb75007]

The temperatures behind this front seem way colder than they were behind last weeks.

[downsouthman1]

Is that a 999 surface low in the big bend area? Lol

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Is that Low in the Panhandle in the last few frames traveling SE!?

Some1 please click the link & tell me if you agree that the Low is traveling SE.