Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[EmeraldCoast93]

NWS Mobile Hazardous Weather Outlook

AFTER ASSESSING SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST DATA THIS
EVENING...FORECASTERS ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE
SNOWS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RICHTON MISSISSIPPI TO CAMDEN ALABAMA. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO BEGIN BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM
THEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW AFTER 9 PM WHILE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWS COULD MEASURE 1 TO
POSSIBLY 2 INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON
LATER SHIFTS. STAY TUNED.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mob/ ... _full3.gif

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile Hazardous Weather Outlook

AFTER ASSESSING SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST DATA THIS
EVENING...FORECASTERS ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE
SNOWS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RICHTON MISSISSIPPI TO CAMDEN ALABAMA. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO BEGIN BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM
THEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW AFTER 9 PM WHILE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWS COULD MEASURE 1 TO
POSSIBLY 2 INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON
LATER SHIFTS. STAY TUNED.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mob/ ... _full3.gif

Welcome to S2K.

Yep, looks like NWS Mobile/Pensacola will be putting out a winter weather advisory in the morning. Not suprising with the models shifting the heaviest snow toward south Mississippi and south Alabama.

[Metalicwx220]

The nam 0z is a mess. No snow for south alabama, just south mississippi. I loathe how the models do that.

[Metalicwx220]

Now
17 days
my god look at northern california and oregon and Northeast. Are those even the mountains?

[timmeister]

These 2 Maps (00Z) show the forecast at 36 and 48 hours. The Low is tracking further to the south than previously forecast.

[Brent]

This is the best snow forecast I've had from this storm all week... BMX saying an inch likely but an outside chance the heaviest band in the area could spread over here too(2-3 inches). Looks like I'll be snow chasing from my front yard.

AVING SAID ALL THAT...I AM FEELING PRETTY GOOD ABOUT OUR ONGOING
FORECAST AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES BASED ON THE MORNING
MODEL RUNS. IF EVERYTHING PANS OUT AS PER THE MODELS...WE MAY BE
ABLE TO GET BY WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS.
PERHAPS JUST A FEW COUNTIES EVENTUALLY NEEDED A WINTER STORM
WARNING. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL I SEE IS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE A SHOT AT MORE THAN
TWO INCHES...BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THEY WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME WITH TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. ANOTHER AREA
THAT COULD GET MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS FROM SUMTER COUNTY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO PERRY OR CHILTON COUNTY. THIS AREA MAY BE IN THE
QPF/TEMPERATURE SWEET SPOT...WHERE TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH AND
QPF IS ENHANCED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CHARTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE AN AREA TO WATCH
FOR A MESOSCALE TYPE ENHANCED BAND TO SET UP. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY...I WOULD FEEL A BIT BETTER
INCLUDING MARENGO...PERRY...AND CHILTON COUNTIES IN THE WINTER
STORM WATCH.

FARTHER TO THE EAST IS A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR...SO TO SPEAK. ALL
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. I AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL (BE DIMINISHING). IN FACT...LOOKING AT THE
CONDITIONS AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON...I`M STARTING TO WONDER IF THIS THING MAY ACTUALLY
BE STRONGER THAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WHEN IT ARRIVES HERE. I
MEAN...THERE`S A 60 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS JUST A 200 MILE AREA IN
WEST TEXAS...WITH WINDS BLOWING 30 KNOTS VIRTUALLY DIRECTLY TOWARD
EACH OTHER. THAT`S A LOT OF FRONTOGENESIS AND BAROCLINICITY. I CAN
ONLY IMAGINE A SURFACE LOW REALLY GETTING CRANKED UP BEYOND WHAT
THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. TRANSLATE THAT
DOWNSTREAM...AND THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD HAVE
A MUCH LARGER 2+ INCHES SNOW AREA THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. SO --
ASIDE FROM THE ADDITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES WILL NOT
MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA EVEN THOUGH
IT MAY SEEM TO CONFLICT A LITTLE WITH OUR CURRENT SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST.

[Lane]

How much farther south? The NWS has taken any kind of snow chance out for my area.

[Brent]

How much farther south? The NWS has taken any kind of snow chance out for my area.

Winter Storm Watch to Montgomery now!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The heaviest precip is gonna be down here, it's just a question of temps, BMX is biting.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1108 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFIC SNOWFALL TOTALS...ACCUMULATIONS
OF TWO INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

ALZ036>038-040>045-047-091300-
/O.EXA.KBMX.WS.A.0003.110209T2100Z-110210T1200Z/
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...
HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...
AUBURN...OPELIKA
1108 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
IF THE WEATHER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS SNOW INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

My new forecast:

Wednesday Night...Snow and rain in the evening...then snow after midnight. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Up from "up to 1 inch" earlier.

[Lane]

Still will head up to Clanton. Although now looks like we are in the watch area (elmore). We are also in the 1/2 to 2 inch zone, the 2 to 3 inch zone is about ten miles away.

[Lane]

[Brent]

I'm almost in that 2-3" band! This may be our best shot all winter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lane]

Even with the snow map for our area I can't get excited till it happens. But the adrenaline is starting to flow!!

[Brent]

Even with the snow map for our area I can't get excited till it happens. But the adrenaline is starting to flow!!

LOL I know. Seen too many busts at the last-minute, but I am FAR more encouraged than I was.

While I am not planning an overnight snow chase like I originally was, I will be watching radar trends and ready to travel around locally if I notice a heavier band setting up somewhere close by.

[Lane]

GOOD MORNING!!

[Lane]

Brent, we are now both in the 2 to 3 zone. And Several hrs away from the event. Now this is what I like to wake up too. Getting a little more excited.

[tugreenie]

The storm looks to me to be moving east. Are we expecting a low to form in the GOM? If not I can't see it snowing much further south than the I-20 corridor. Just the opinion of a novice!

[Ynotndalton]

Energy is moving SE , Brent its your turn looks like..

[Brent]

Brent, we are now both in the 2 to 3 zone. And Several hrs away from the event. Now this is what I like to wake up too. Getting a little more excited.

and 2-3 days ago we had no chance at a flake. I like this bust, but it's not snowing yet...

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola talking about upgrading to a Winter Storm Warning!

Snow amounts in the northern part of the forecast area may receive higher than 3 inches with a heavy snow band setting up just north of Mobile and Pensacola!

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AFTER GETTING A MORE THOROUGH LOOK
AT THE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE...OUR LATEST THINKING REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE
BY THE EVENING SHIFT YESTERDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALL TRENDED
TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT AS THE HEAVIER PCPN MOVES INTO
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST 00Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES LOWERING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH 09Z
THURSDAY. THIS ACCUMULATING SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO
MS...TO MILLRY AL...TO GROVE HILL AL...TO CAMDEN AL. AS A RESULT...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE AREA
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LATEST SREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW TO BE AS HIGH AS 60
PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHOCTAW COUNTY...WITH A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF WAYNE...THE REMAINDER
OF CHOCTAW AND INTO NORTHERN CLARKE AND WILCOX COUNTIES. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...SHOWS 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING FROM 00-06Z ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...IN CONCERT WITH A SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SLANTWISE CONVECTION. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE FAR NORTH CWA...ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF SUCH AS BAND REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICKER COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO
AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. AS NOTED EARLIER...WHEN TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT LOSING SOME PRECIP TO COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 10:1 SNOW RATIOS GIVEN DEEP ISOTHERMAL
PROFILES...SNOW ACCUMULATION TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. AS STATED ABOVE...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO THE
INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE PCPN
SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SNOWS PRIMARILY
ACCUMULATING ON ELEVATED SURFACES...GRASSY AREAS ETC. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE ADVISED AREA TONIGHT
HOWEVER...AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS WE FINE
TUNE THE FCST LATER TODAY...IF IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT A BAND
OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...A PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREA MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR IN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 IN ALABAMA...EXPECT A COLD
RAIN (WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES POSSIBLY MIXED IN) WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NO PCPN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT
DO EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASING CLOUDINESS...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 12/DS

[Lane]