Winter Weather Discussion
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natecast
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#941 Postby natecast » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:25 pm
BlueIce wrote:natecast wrote:I've told friends and family here to expect 6-10" of snow in the metro, with an isolated maximum of 12" possible. Latest 12Z GFS is throwing down more QPF and hammers us pretty good, I'll have to wait to see what the Bufkit and snowfall maps look like.
I agree with that estimate as well. I would probably go closer to the 10" range. The satellite images of the storm are very impressive and the NAM estimated snowfall looks to be inline within the 10" range.
Wow, latest 12z GFS Bufkit estimate gives OKC up to 15" of snow, with ratios maxing out at 22:1!
It also appears some thunder will be possible in the heaviest bands later tonight.
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TwisterFanatic
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#942 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:32 pm
Wow! They're gonna get 30:1 Snow Ratios this evening in Western Oklahoma.
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GRAYSONCO.WX
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#943 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:34 pm
TwisterFanatic wrote:Wow! They're gonna get 30:1 Snow Ratios this evening in Western Oklahoma.
Wow!! Seriously??
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TwisterFanatic
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#944 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:57 pm
GRAYSONCO.WX wrote:TwisterFanatic wrote:Wow! They're gonna get 30:1 Snow Ratios this evening in Western Oklahoma.
Wow!! Seriously??
Yep between 20:1 and 30:1
DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ATOP COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL YIELD VERY HIGH LIQUID SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND 20-30:1.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Peanut432
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#945 Postby Peanut432 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:03 pm
Childress shows 25:1.
What exactly does that mean? Wetter snow or something?
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TwisterFanatic
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#946 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:06 pm
Peanut432 wrote:Childress shows 25:1.
What exactly does that mean? Wetter snow or something?
For every inch of water, there would be 25 inches of snow. Its a lighter, fluffier snow.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TwisterFanatic
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#947 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:22 pm
Now this is just impressive.
The entire state has an at least 70% chance of receiving 4+ inches of snow.
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wx247
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#948 Postby wx247 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:02 am
I am now under a Winter Storm Warning here in SW MO: 5-8" of snow for us. The RUC and HRRR have been far superior to any of the others. I am sure that has to be frustrating for the meteorologists.
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TwisterFanatic
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#949 Postby TwisterFanatic » Wed Feb 09, 2011 12:32 pm
This is unbelievable! Parts Northwest Arkansas has received 30 INCHES just this morning!! A band set up and was putting out rates of over 3 inches per hour, and just sat over the same spot. I have gotten about 15 inches, but the News reporters are out in the snow in NW Arkansas and some is up to their waste. The Pro Met says this may have set the single day Arkansas snowfall record.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Extremeweatherguy
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#950 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:04 pm
The winter storm way under-delivered here. I went to bed expecting 6-12 inches, and I woke up to find only around 4.
Still a decent snowfall, but nowhere near as bad as it could have been.
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TwisterFanatic
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#951 Postby TwisterFanatic » Wed Feb 09, 2011 4:55 pm
Thought I would share these pictures..
My Brothers house. (26 inches)
My house (17.5 inches)
My deck
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natecast
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#952 Postby natecast » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:29 pm
Incredible pics! Thanks for sharing!
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wx247
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#953 Postby wx247 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:53 pm
Amazing pics! Thanks for sharing. We wound up with 6" here. It has been quite an active last couple of weeks around here. Glad a warm-up is on the way now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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natecast
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#955 Postby natecast » Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:46 am
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
755 AM CDT THU FEB 10 2011
..ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA
..ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET FOR THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA
AN ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WAS SET
AT BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AT 7:19 AM. THE PREVIOUS ALL
TIME RECORD LOW WAS 25 BELOW ZERO JANUARY 22ND 1930. THIS SMASHES
THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 13 BELOW ZERO SET IN 1929.
THIS ALSO SETS THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE STATE OF
OKLAHOMA. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW WAS 27 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SET AT
VINITA, OK IN 1905 AND AT WATTS, OK IN 1930.
THIS INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED FURTHER.
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wx247
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#956 Postby wx247 » Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:56 am
That is very very impressive. The coldest lows last night line very appropriately with the heaviest snow pack across Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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wxman57
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#957 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 10, 2011 12:00 pm
What's even more insane is that one of my coworkers pointed out how poorly GFS MOS did with the forecast for Bartlesville, OK for this morning. Remember, they hit -27F for the low today. The forecast was for a low of 7 degrees - 34 degrees too warm!
Code: Select all
BARTLESVILLE
KBVO GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/10/2011 0600 UTC
DT /FEB 10 /FEB 11 /FEB 12 /
HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06
X/N 29 7 35 18 42
TMP -15 -4 19 29 16 10 11 11 10 17 28 35 32 26 23 21 19 25 35 39 34
DPT -15 -4 4 5 7 6 7 6 6 12 19 23 24 21 17 16 15 21 26 27 25
CLD FW BK CL FW SC FW FW FW SC BK CL CL CL CL FW CL CL CL CL FW SC
WDR 00 23 21 21 20 23 25 23 00 22 23 23 25 27 00 00 00 19 20 20 22
WSP 00 02 08 07 05 01 02 01 00 03 06 06 06 01 00 00 00 05 05 09 03
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natecast
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#958 Postby natecast » Thu Feb 10, 2011 1:11 pm
Sorry Bartlesville. Unofficial Mesonet observation of -31 from Nowata, OK. We'll see if this reading becomes official.
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TwisterFanatic
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#959 Postby TwisterFanatic » Thu Feb 10, 2011 1:18 pm
Man, and I thought it was cold here at -5.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Extremeweatherguy
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#960 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Feb 10, 2011 2:59 pm
A look at some of the daily and all-time record lows set across the state today...
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