SIO: BINGIZA (05R/13S) - Moderate Tropical Storm

[HURAKAN]

interesting track, could be a menace for La Reunion and Mauritius

[Crostorm]

ECMWF



is this the same sistem?

[HURAKAN]

is this the same sistem?

Looking at the time in both graphs tells me it's the same system.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF continues to develop this system.

[KWT]

ECM really ramps this system up in a big way before it makes landfall in about 5-6 days time, GFS is slower in its motion and not as strong but also develops it.

[Macrocane]

The SW Indian basin has been soooo inactive that I can't believe that this system is not going to develop, it's about time for this basin to ramp up.

[Crostorm]

Animation
http://www.sat24.nl/mg?animation=true&ir=False

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5S 57.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081624Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
DEPICT A LOOSELY-DEFINED AND SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LLCC. A 081711Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS
10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND 20-25 KNOT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE FLARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KNOTS) AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Fair

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 57.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 55.8E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH OF LA
REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CENTER AND
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 090300Z AMSU IMAGE SUPPORTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK, EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY, OVERALL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED DUE TO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
VIGOROUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 821
WTIO30 FMEE 091241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (05-20102011)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 55.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/10 00 UTC: 13.9S/54.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2011/02/10 12 UTC: 14.1S/54.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/02/11 00 UTC: 14.4S/54.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/11 12 UTC: 14.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/02/12 00 UTC: 15.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2011/02/12 12 UTC: 15.8S/53.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 12/02/2011 12 UTC: 17.8S/53.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
120H: 12/02/2011 12 UTC: 20.5S/51.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
DESPITE AN UNFAVOURABLE DIURNAL CYCLE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME RECENT STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND AND IS NOW A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS ... CONSEQUENTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION RATE IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT (FRIDAY NIGHT), UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWER SHEAR UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AN
D GOOD OUTFLOW SPECIALLY POLEWARDS. THEREFORE, A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION
RATE IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TOMORROW A DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM AROUND 50E AND GENERATE A STRONG WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL POLEWARDS TURN AND
A SLOW DOWN OF THE TRA
CK. LATEST MODELS FROM 00Z AGREE WITH THIS SOUTHWARDS TURN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT LONGER RANGE, SOME MODELS LIKE UKMO SHOW A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND OTHER MODELS LIKE THE VERY LAST ECMWF
SHOW NOW A SOUTHWARDS
TRACK ...
PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE TRACKS ...
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREGNES ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

09/0830 UTC 13.7S 55.6E T2.0/2.0 94S -- Southwest Indian

30 knots

[Crostorm]

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S
55.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 55.1E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 091014Z AMSR-E 36H IMAGE INDICATES A
WELL-DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE WEST INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 090558Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK, EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY, OVERALL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED DUE TO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS VIGOROUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

[KWT]

30kts looks a decent call, its wrapping up well at the moment and the models do seem quite keen on developing a fairly strong system in the 4-6 day range.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better organized