Texas Severe Weather Thread 2011

[cheezyWXguy]

Well we already have a 400 page thread in the winter weather forum, and with the weather starting to warm up next weekend, it appears that severe weather season may only be a few weeks away. I am curious as to how a La Nina pattern will affect our severe weather, considering our spring severe season last year was practically nonexistent during the El Nino pattern. So any insight to this question, as well as any other info or severe threats for Texas this year as they come would greatly be appreciated.

[newtotex]

Bring on severe weather season, I'm ready for my first Texas storm!

[Texas2Florida]

Good idea..at this rate we'll have the severe weather for the end of the month.

[txagwxman]

I will post from time to time on this thread --- if others join.

[Portastorm]

Great idea, although I couldn't tell the difference between a CAPE and a joule per kilogram. But I do know when severe weather is threatening and when happening!

Looking forward to it ...

[newtotex]

I think we can all agree that this years La Nina is different, how do you think its goin to effect Texas' severe weather season? Pretty interested to see it play out.

[Cuda17]

Well we already have a 400 page thread in the winter weather forum, and with the weather starting to warm up next weekend, it appears that severe weather season may only be a few weeks away. I am curious as to how a La Nina pattern will affect our severe weather, considering our spring severe season last year was practically nonexistent during the El Nino pattern. So any insight to this question, as well as any other info or severe threats for Texas this year as they come would greatly be appreciated.

I wonder if we can look back to the other significant winter weather seasons here in Texas and draw any conclusions about the upcoming severe weather season based on how the past severe weather seasons panned out after the significant winter weather seasons. HA! Boy that was a mouthful of absolute gibberish! I hope I'm clear in my statement!

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the day 10, +/- a couple of days. There are 'hints' of a Spring Storm brewing.

[cheezyWXguy]

Keep an eye on the day 10, +/- a couple of days. There are 'hints' of a Spring Storm brewing.

Ya know, it doesn't surprise me. Yesterday I was looking at the long range GFS runs yesterday and although anything that far out is considered fantasy, each one seemed to be hinting at a pattern change from the sunny dry conditions forecast all next week, to a stormier pattern about 10-12 days out, with a disturbance forming in the southwest and moving through the plains every few days. Of course these are just trends and shouldnt be taken too seriously so far out, but if this pattern were to verify I would be prepared for a busy spring severe season.

[somethingfunny]

I'm so glad you made this thread, cheezyWXguy! I made one for the Southern Plains because the SETX/LA thread wasn't really covering us, but the thread never took off. We've got a way better start this year, and more promising weather.

One thing I ought to mention is that last Spring wasn't really an El Nino....at that point, I believe we were making the transition to the La Nina that took hold during 2010's busy hurricane season. This year looks to remain a strong La Nina all the way through, so we'll see what happens...this La Nina has been anything but typical, but some recent La Ninas included 2007, 2003, 2000/2001, and 1998 I believe. 1976 or 1977 could also provide insight with those back-to-back harsh winters. I haven't studied climatology much though, so maybe someone who has could give us better insight!!!

I think the GFS is on to something with the Day 10 stormy pattern. It's going to be way too warm this coming week to stay dry for long at this time of the year. I hope it rains soon.....I don't want to wash my car until all the sand on the bridges gets washed away.

[gpsnowman]

This may be a dumb question, but is the 10 day GFS outlook a potential winter event or a preview of some spring t-storms?

[TexasStorm]

One of the issues we had last severe season was the dry line never moved east. Through the whole spring the dry line stayed out west. Nothing to push it east. Unless we have high pressure come in and sit over North Texas like last season this should be an interesting season.

[newtotex]

Quick question since I just mooved here. Does the Denton area usually get a lot of action when it comes to severe weather, tornadoes/warnings, hail all that? What part of DFW usually gets the most action?

[somethingfunny]

Quick question since I just mooved here. Does the Denton area usually get a lot of action when it comes to severe weather, tornadoes/warnings, hail all that? What part of DFW usually gets the most action?

Typically Tarrant and Denton counties will get more action than Dallas and Collin counties as the eastward-moving squall lines tend to weaken after hitting Fort Worth, although I'd say Wise and Parker counties usually get hit even more frequently.
Of course it can happen anywhere in the Metroplex, as we had several tornado touchdowns in Dallas just last September on the backside of Tropical Storm Hermine.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2011

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN RECENT
RUNS...WITH BOTH EJECTING A LEAD UPPER IMPULSE ENEWD OUT OF THE MAIN
WRN TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS DAY 5 /THU. 2-17/. IN RESPONSE...A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN PLAINS DAY 5...REACHING THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THE START OF DAY 6. AS THE CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER MO
VALLEY/SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR -- THIS OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL -- BUT ATTM EXPECT LITTLE CAPE TO BE PRESENT...DUE
TO VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST RETURN AND WARM/DRY ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER BEING MAINTAINED BY SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS...ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ATTM.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN CANADA DAY 6...THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED FROM THE OH VALLEY
REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND WWD INTO TX DAY 7. BOTH DAYS...A
FRONTAL WAVE INVOF TX WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED BY THE LARGE-SCALE
WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING...AND EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
INTO TX MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 02/13/2011

[newtotex]

Quick question since I just mooved here. Does the Denton area usually get a lot of action when it comes to severe weather, tornadoes/warnings, hail all that? What part of DFW usually gets the most action?

Typically Tarrant and Denton counties will get more action than Dallas and Collin counties as the eastward-moving squall lines tend to weaken after hitting Fort Worth, although I'd say Wise and Parker counties usually get hit even more frequently.
Of course it can happen anywhere in the Metroplex, as we had several tornado touchdowns in Dallas just last September on the backside of Tropical Storm Hermine.

I found this pretty cool website with a list of all the storm reports by county and it seems Tarrant, Johnson, Dallas, and Grayson county all have a fair amount of tornados while Denton only has had like 41..is that a pretty fair assesment or are those things usually wrong? A couple of years ago I came out here for spring break and they seemed to be talking about Grayson county a whole lot, do they usually get it bad?

[somethingfunny]

It can really happen anywhere. Look far enough back into any city's history and you'll find a tornado devastated it at some point. Garland in 1927, Dallas in 1957, Lancaster in 1994, Fort Worth in 2000, Sherman way back in 1895....they've happened everywhere, I'm sure Denton, Lewisville, Keller, etc have all had them too.

[newtotex]

I dont want anywhere to get hit lol..I guess im just askin where in North Texas is the best place to chase, prolly should have worded it that way to begin with lol

[somethingfunny]

Go west my friend.

[somethingfunny]

The NWS is going to perform SKYWARN Spotter Training TOMORROW here in Garland. It's at the Granville Arts Center near the DART terminus station at Fifth Street and Walnut Street downtown. Basic classes are from 9 AM to 12 noon, and advanced classes are from 1:30 PM to 4 PM. It's free.

I've always wanted to get to one of these, and I'll be there tomorrow. Along with the National Weather Service, there will also be numerous meteorologists from FOX 4 and probably other stations that I don't watch as often also. I thought some people who follow this thread might like to go too, or might like to catch another spotter training class in the future. I'm not sure exactly what to expect when I go, I just know that I'm not missing this again like I did last year.

Here's the full schedule for classes around North Texas. There are plenty of other opportunities coming for Denton, Fort Worth, Colleyville, Rockwall, Greenville, etc: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/skywarnsch.php?file=sptrsch