SIO: BINGIZA (05R/13S) - Moderate Tropical Storm
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Looks like RI has begun. Wrapping up very nicely with strong banding in all quadrants.
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Not liking that presentation, that really doesn't bode well for anywhere close to land...
I agree RI may well be starting, can see this ramping up into the 105-115kts range by LF quite easily.
Never 55kts right now though, could easily add 25-30kts to that figure right now IMO.
I agree RI may well be starting, can see this ramping up into the 105-115kts range by LF quite easily.
Never 55kts right now though, could easily add 25-30kts to that figure right now IMO.
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Yeah thats looking really impressive now Hurakan, I think people in Madagascar need to prepare for a big landfall now, probably got to get ready for a 3/4 landfall IMO....so soon after Yasi!
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Its inner core really has come together very quickly which is not a good sign!
06z GFS runs this down Madagascar's east coast briefly going inland before exiting and heading southwards.
06z GFS runs this down Madagascar's east coast briefly going inland before exiting and heading southwards.
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That frankly probably is a major hurricane, that presentation is screaming a Major hurricane to be fair!
JWTC going to have to really lift up the intial estimate from 12z...90-100kts sounds probable.
JWTC going to have to really lift up the intial estimate from 12z...90-100kts sounds probable.
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Ouch thats looking really classic now Hurakan!
Quite amazing to see how much its improved in the last 12hrs, no doubt its undergoing RI right now.
Quite amazing to see how much its improved in the last 12hrs, no doubt its undergoing RI right now.
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Yeah its got the look of a explosive system, the models have been quite keen on really strengthening this system upto landfall and it seems to be coming off...
No way this is anything below 100kts right now.
No way this is anything below 100kts right now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TPXS10 PGTW 121223
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA)
B. 12/1130Z
C. 15.3S
D. 53.6E
E. ONW/MET7
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A SMALL IRREG EYE/ANMTN. A 25NM LG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A BLK RING YIELDING AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.5. A COMPLETE WHT RING YIELDS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0 YIELDING A DT OF 5.5. FT BASED ON PT. MET YIELDS 4.0 ONLY BECAUSE THE STORM WAS 2.5 24HRS AGO.
KIENZLE
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA)
B. 12/1130Z
C. 15.3S
D. 53.6E
E. ONW/MET7
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A SMALL IRREG EYE/ANMTN. A 25NM LG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A BLK RING YIELDING AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.5. A COMPLETE WHT RING YIELDS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0 YIELDING A DT OF 5.5. FT BASED ON PT. MET YIELDS 4.0 ONLY BECAUSE THE STORM WAS 2.5 24HRS AGO.
KIENZLE
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That figure of 5.5 sorta backs up what we've been saying here about this likely being in the 95-105kts range, its looking markedly better then it was just 12-18hrs ago, as the comments confirm nicely.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143862
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Re: SIO: BINGIZA (05/13S) - Severe Tropical Storm
JTWC 2100z Warning=85kts
IMO, it's a little bit higher than 85kts according to those images posted here recently.I say is between 95kts and 105kts.
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 007
WTXS31 PGTW 122100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.3S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.1S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
420 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121716Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEEDING INTO A 28 NM CONCENTRIC
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, HAS ALLOWED FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH. TC BINGIZA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU
36. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REMNANTS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE LATER TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
IMO, it's a little bit higher than 85kts according to those images posted here recently.I say is between 95kts and 105kts.
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 007
WTXS31 PGTW 122100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.3S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.1S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
420 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121716Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEEDING INTO A 28 NM CONCENTRIC
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, HAS ALLOWED FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH. TC BINGIZA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU
36. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REMNANTS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE LATER TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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