Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT FEB 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT BUT
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL HANG BACK OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. A BRANCH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLAND ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. VERY DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC TO OUR NORTH AND CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...INCREASING THE WIND FLOW AND
COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT OR SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THEN BREAK UP OVER THE AREA...BUT
LOWER LEVELS COULD REMAIN MOIST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ON THE
LOCAL RADAR ARE A FEW SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM FROM SAINT THOMAS. FLOW
OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE EAST SOUTHEAST. MIMIC SHOWS US TO BE
IN A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT
CROSSES 20 NORTH AT 64 WEST. THIS SAME MAXIMUM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST MOMENTARILY IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
LATER THIS EVENING IN PUERTO RICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE AS THE MAXIMUM APPROACHES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND EXPECT THIS TO
PLAY A ROLE IN THE MOISTENING OF THE AREA NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN CUBA INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
AND BECOME EAST-WEST NEAR 22 NORTH BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN CAUSE IT TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA...BUT WEAKENING
AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD MODEL TIMING HOLD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ALSO ENHANCE THIS FEATURE...EVEN AS WEAK AS IT WILL BE BY THE
TIME IT PASSES NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HRS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR
THROUGH ABOUT 12/22Z. AFTER 13/00Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TISX AND TIST IN PASSING SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE ROUGH OVER MOST AREAS...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING OUT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY IN
THE OUTER ATLANTIC AND SEAS RISING IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 83 / 60 60 30 30
STT 74 84 75 84 / 60 60 20 20

[Macrocane]

Good evening! Some interesting things have occurred today in Central America:
-Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador had above average lows today but a cold surge began this morning and has been producing northerly winds over the region and thanks to that below normal maximum temps were registered this afternoon in these countries.
-Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama had near normal lows and highs, and moderate to strong northerly winds have been experienced in these countries as well.
-Cooler temperatures are expected in the next few days thanks to this cold surge.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.8°C (47.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.6°C (52.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15°C (59°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.2°C (39.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.3°C (59.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.7°C (58.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.3°C (99.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.3°C (52.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)

[Macrocane]

These are the strongest wind gusts registered today in some stations:

Belize city, Belize 27 km/h (16 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 60 km/h (38 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 37 km/h (23 mph)
Ishuatan, El Salvador 53 km/h (33 mph)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 44 km/h (28 mph)
Nueva Ocotepeque, Honduras 54 km/h (34 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 37 km/h (23 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 43 km/h (27 mph)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 64 km/h (40 mph)
Panama city, Panama 32 km/h (20 mph)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
948 PM AST SAT FEB 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROF TO DOMINATE THE WRN AND CNTRL ATLC AND
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE ATTM PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY ERN HALF OF
PR/USVI AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WHERE IT WILL INTERCEPT A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM. SHOULD SEE SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN PR.

DEEP TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE ATLC NEXT
WEEK WITH MODELS INDICATING A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS TROF AND GRAZING THE FCST AREA DURING THE MON-WED
TIME FRAME. THIS HELP SUSTAIN AND PUSH A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED. NORTH COASTAL AREAS WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER AND MUCH WETTER
THAN PAST FEW WEEKS UNDER INFLUENCE OF POLAR TROUGH AND NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN ALL WEEK. SRN AREAS WILL
LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE RAIN BUT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
AIR WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD CVRG AND COOLER TEMPS THAT WILL BE
A GREAT MITIGATION FACTOR AGAINST WILDFIRES.

TROF AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEK`S
END WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH INCREASING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW AND BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...BRIEF TSRA POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT JMZ. MAINLY
EAST WINDS XCPT FOR A WEST WIND AT JMZ DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 6-7 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS WITH SCA OR
SCEC EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. OFFSHORE CARIB WATERS
WILL SEE SEAS 5-6 FT MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRES DEVELOPED AGAIN TODAY IN COAMO...SABANA
GRANDE AND MARICAO BUT NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE AS YESTERDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN MORE
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE WILDFIRES. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE SOUTH COAST WILL MISS MOST OF THE RAINFALL THAT THE NORTH
COAST WILL LIKELY GET NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 83 / 40 40 30 30
STT 74 84 75 84 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE FA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND BROAD TROUGHINESS TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTERS HAVE NOTED...THE SLIGHT
SHIFTING OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...
WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CAPPING LOCALLY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
WITH A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT GREATLY IMPROVED VENTILATION
FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP.
IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP MOISTURE...EXPECT AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN THE FREQUENCY AND DEPTH OF BUNDLES OF MOISTURE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH DECENT INSOLATION AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL NOT BE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY ALL OF THE TIME...THE ABOVE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH MORE UNSETTLED OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A RE-BUILDING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TURN THE PATTERN MUCH DRIER AGAIN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS NOT YET ETCHED IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS CONTINUE ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HRS. BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ALL SITED EXCEPT LEE SIDE OF
PR (TJPS/ TJMZ) FOR SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TUE.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANY SECTIONS OF THE REGIONAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU FOR
FORECAST DETAILS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA DELINEATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PER PREVIOUS SHIFT...FIRES DEVELOPED AGAIN
YESTERDAY IN COAMO...SABANA GRANDE AND MARICAO BUT NOT NEARLY AS
INTENSE AS FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WHICH SHOULD
HELP PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE WILDFIRES. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SOUTH COAST WILL MISS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL
THAT THE NORTH COAST WILL LIKELY GET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 40 30 30 50
STT 84 74 84 75 / 40 20 20 40

[Macrocane]

Temperatures have not dropped significantly yet, but strong winds continue to blow I guess that tonight should be cooler. This is the excerpt of the latest Pacific TWD that talks about this winds:

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES THAT WAS OVER SE TEXAS SAT HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND IS FORCING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE PASS. A STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE
NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT LESSENING OF THE GRADIENT
LATER TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 50 KT
WHILE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DROP WINDS BELOW
GALE FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 17 TO 19 FT
RANGE COINCIDENT WITH THE STORM FORCE CONDITIONS. NE SWELL
GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MEETING UP WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL SUN AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER FROM DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE
EQUATOR BY TUE MORNING.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE 0342Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS NE TO
E WINDS TO 25 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 20 KT N TO
NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. THE OBSERVATION AT THE
EL SALVADOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT UPWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA
SHOWED FRESH N TO NE WINDS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z THIS MORNING.
WINDS NEAR FONSECA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON AS
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENS...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE IN PAPAGAYO THROUGH
THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AS COOL DRAINAGE FLOW INCREASES WINDS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NE TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE FILTERING ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND BECOMING NLY ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA N
OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W AS CONFIRMED BY SHIP ZCDGS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MON AFTERNOON.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Fri-7pmET Sat) for
Sat Feb 12 2011

Piarco AIrport, Trinidad 31.3C 88F 0.2mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.2C 85F
Crown Point, Tobago 29.1C 84F 9.0mm
Point Salines, Grenada 27.1C 81F 18.0mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.0C 84F 41.4mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.0C 86F trace
Rockley, S. Barbados 29.6C 85F 0.3mm

Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.8C 86F 0.3mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 29.9C 86F 0.6mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 29.3C 85F 2.5mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 30.1C 86F 2.6mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.7C 84F 0.9mm
VC Bird, Antigua 27.1C 81F 2.2mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.7C 84F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.2C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.7C 87F
Havana, Cuba 19.4C 67F
Miami, Florida 17.8C 64F 2.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 23.6C 75F 1.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.0C 70F 9.4mm

Hato AIrport, Curacao 30.1C 86F 0.5mm
Queen Beatrix, ARuba 30.5C 87F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 29.8C 86F 4.5mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
A WEAK LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE TAIL OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL
PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE ON FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
EAST A LITTLE AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. A WEAK LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AT MID
LEVELS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AS ANOTHER
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. A SHEAR-LINE
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE FROM THE
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER UNTIL SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH OF PUERTO RICO WAS COVERED WITH LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS. SHOWERS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH LIKELY OCCURRED IN THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PATILLAS AND YABUCOA AS WELL AS SPOTS OF
NAGUABO...LUQUILLO...CEIBA AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...AGUADA AND
MOCA ACCORDING TO NWS RADAR. THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE DUE TO
REPEATED PASSAGES OF BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS...AND IN THE AFTERNOON
THE FORMATION OF A MORE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...BUT SHOWERS WILL NOT LIKELY INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN MID LEVELS BEGIN TO SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AS THE SHEAR-LINE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SHEAR LINE IS DUE TO A FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A NOW VERY DISTANT LOW IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND DISSIPATE AS IT DOES SO.
DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AFTER ITS PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
RAINFALL IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LIMITED FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HRS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR
THROUGH ABOUT 13/22Z. IN ADDITION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TISX...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK IN PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE SEAS GENERALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 7
FEET WITH ONE EXCEPTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TONIGHT AT 9 PM AST. THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS...HOWEVER...
WILL REMAIN NEAR 7 FEET FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND WILL KEEP THEIR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTING HIGHER SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 7 TO 8
FOOT SEAS SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA THEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 84 / 30 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

Strong and cool northerly winds are still blowing across Central America and thanks to them the region experienced the coolest maximum temperatures since mid January I will have the observations later tonight. Here's the latest excerpt of the TWD:

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IN N GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING
REINFORCING COLD AIR THROUGH CHIVELA PASS HAS PEAKED IN STRENGTH
AND INFLUENCE ON THE SW GULF AND SE MEXICO. WINDS THROUGH THE
PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
STORM STRENGTH...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE PHOTOS THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE COOL DRY PLUME OF
COLD AIR FLOWING S THEN SW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN
CONTINUING W-SW TO NEAR 11N104W. MAX SEAS WITHIN THIS PLUME OF
COOL AIR ARE ESTIMATED AT 16 FT. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD S AND SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MERGE
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FROM
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE BLOWING
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN THROUGH AND
DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO. WINDS NEAR
FONSECA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON MORNING AS THE
PRES GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENS...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH PAPAGAYO
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL DRAINAGE FLOW INCREASES WINDS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NE TRADE WINDS CROSSING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE FILTERING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
PANAMA AND BECOMING NLY TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA
N OF 06N E OF 81W. WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON.

[Macrocane]

COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AMERICA SINCE MID JANUARY

-Belize, Guatemala and Honduras registered today cooler than yesterday minimum temperatures. The rest of the region had similar to or warmer than yesterday minimum temps.
-All the countries (except Nicaragua) experienced today cooler than normal maximum temps, in fact most of the locations registered the coolest highs since the 2nd week of January. Just take a look at the maximum temperatures in Las Pilas, La Esperanza and Irazu volcano they're amazingly cold .

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.7°C (49.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 16°C (60.8°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 1.6°C (34.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.9°C (58.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.3°C (55.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.1°C (97.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 24.6°C (76.3°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.8°C (47.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.3°C (68.5°F)

[Macrocane]

These are the strongest wind gusts measured today in some stations, as you can see they have been stronger than yesterday in most of the region:

Belize city, Belize 26 km/h (16 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 60 km/h (38 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 44 km/h (28 mph)
Ishuatan, El Salvador 64 km/h (40 mph)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 41 km/h (26 mph)
Nueva Ocotepeque, Honduras 52 km/h (33 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 33 km/h (21 mph)
Esteli, Nicaragua 52 km/h (33 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 55 km/h (34 mph)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 57 km/h (35 mph)
Panama city, Panama 40 km/h (26 mph)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1011 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2011

.UPDATE...THE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH AFFECTED THE WESTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO HAD DISSIPATED JUST AFTER SUNSET. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. NEVERTHELESS...IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES MOVING WEST NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FAVOR THE
LIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
THE USVI DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY AND LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJSJ...TISX AND TIST IN PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH 14/12Z.
LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST MON FEB 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE FA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND BROAD TROUGHINESS TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...AT WHICH TIME THE
PATTERN FLATTENS A BIT...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
RE-ALIGN AND RE-BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE
SHIFTING OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...
HAS GREATLY WEAKENED THE CAP LOCALLY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WILL GREATLY IMPROVE VENTILATION FOR SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. ALSO...
ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP MOISTURE...STILL EXPECT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
THE FREQUENCY AND DEPTH OF BUNDLES OF MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH DECENT INSOLATION AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL NOT BE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY ALL OF THE TIME...THE ABOVE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN LOCALLY FOR MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE STILL THAT A RE-BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD TURN THE PATTERN MUCH DRIER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY
WITH LTL CHG TUE. BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LCL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR/WESTERN PR THRU AT LEAST 22Z. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TNCM/TKPK DURING SHOWERS...AND ISOLD
THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST CENTRAL PR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF
SHORE WATERS FOR TODAY AND THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH
SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE WILDFIRES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND THIS COULD AGAIN RESULT IN A COUPLE OF SMALL
WILDFIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 74 / 30 30 30 50
STT 83 73 84 74 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST MON FEB 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT MID LATITUDES...CONFINING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL GRIND SLOWLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE WEAKENING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE VERY TAIL OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET TO BRUSH THE LOCAL
AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH WILL IN TURN FORCE A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AND SINK SOUTH.
MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THEN TERMINATE ABRUPTLY LATE FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL
FADE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAKENING SHEAR-LINE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY AND GIVE A GENERAL...ALBEIT WEAK...INCREASE TO THE
WINDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR-LINE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MIMIC SHOWS DRIER AIR
MOVING WEST TOWARD SAINT JOHN AND SAINT CROIX THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO PUERTO RICO LATER THIS EVENING.
MODELS THEN SHOW PATCHY MOISTURE RETURNING TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS
MOISTURE AT 700 MB MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY FROM THE SHEAR-
LINE NOW OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS HOWEVER THE GFS
SHOWS THE FRONT HOLDING BACK...WITH ONLY CONVERGENCE BANDS
AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. THE FRONT THEN MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT WILL
NOT ENHANCE THE SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK
AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO MOST MORNINGS AND
SOME CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON THERE. HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL BE EXTREMELY
ISOLATED WHERE THEY OCCUR. A DRIER WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT SHEAR-LINE SHOULD ARRIVE IN PUERTO RICO
TUESDAY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET...NOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...MAY
BE TOO LATE TO CAPITALIZE ON MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE DOWN
TREND BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HRS.
HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 15/00Z. MVFR CONDS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR 15/18Z THROUGH ABOUT 15/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY MEETING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION FOR SEAS IN THE OUTER MOST ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAINS BLANKETED MUCH OF NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. BUT THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREA HAD LITTLE OR NO
RAIN AND FUELS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FEET
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH EAST SOUTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS
OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 83 / 30 30 50 50
STT 73 84 74 83 / 20 20 30 30

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 7pmET Sun-7pm ET Mon) for
Mon Feb 14 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.2C 88F 3.0mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.3C 85F 1.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.1C 84F 2.6mm
Point Salines, Grenada 28.8C 84F 1.9mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.5C 86F 0.4mm

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 28.4C 83F 6.7mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.3C 85F 6.1mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 28.7C 84F 0.2mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.5C 86F 5.9m
VC Bird, Antigua 28.3C 83F 6.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.2C 85F 2.6mm
Charlotte Amalie, St Thomas VI 27.8C 82F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F 15.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.4C 81F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 31.0C 88F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.4C 86F 15.2mm
Havana, Cuba 24.3C 76F
Key West, Florida 22.2C 72F
Miami, Florida 22.8C 73F
Nassau, Bahamas 23.5C 75F
Hamilton, Bermuda 19.2C 67F

Georgetown, Guyana 28.8C 84F
Cayenne, French Guiana 30.3C 86F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Moderate to strong northerly winds are still blowing across Central America, the cold surge produced again today cooler than normal maximum temps although not as cool as yesterday, the minimum temps were similar to yesterday or just a bit cooler. These are the observations:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 18°C (64.4°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 14.9°C (58.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12°C (54°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.0°C (46.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 9.7°C (49.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.5°C (58.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.2°C (61.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.3°C (99.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.4°C (48.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.6°C (92.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)

Maximum Wind Gusts
Belize city, Belize 16 km/h (10 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 50 km/h (31 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 34 km/h (21 mph)
Ishuatan, El Salvador 61 km/h (38 mph)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 48 km/h (30 mph)
Nueva Ocotepeque, Honduras 57 km/h (35 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 30 km/h (19 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 49 km/h (31 mph)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 42 km/h (26 mph)
Panama city, Panama 37 km/h (23 mph)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1031 PM AST MON FEB 14 2011

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH AFFECTED PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO DISSIPATED AROUND 7 PM AST. THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE DROPPED
AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A FEW LOCAL AREAS ACROSS QUEBRADILLAS...
ISABELA AND CAMUY. OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO RECEIVED BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS TO HALF AN
INCH. AT THIS TIME...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE ISLAND. REST OF TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT EXPECT RAINFALL
IF ANY TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING HOURS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND
ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT
A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER WEATHER...SKY COVER AND POPS IN
SEVERAL ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HRS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE VCNTY AND EN ROUTE
TO TIST...TISX...TJSJ...TJNR BTW 15/04Z-15/10Z DUE TO PASSING L/LVL
CLD DECKS AND -SHRA/SHRA. INTMT PDS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
PSBL MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR TIL 15/12Z DUE
TO THE PASSING LOW LEVEL CLDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LVL FLOW BTW 5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL FM SFC TO BLO 15K FT.

[Macrocane]

Hey I almost forgot to say to you:
FELIZ DIA DE LA AMISTAD!!! (Happy Friendship's day!!)
I know in some parts of the world Valentine's day is only for couples but in Central America it is a day for spend time with your beloved one and with your friends as well.

[cycloneye]

Hey I almost forgot to say to you:
FELIZ DIA DE LA AMISTAD!!! (Happy Friendship's day!!)
I know in some parts of the world Valentine's day is only for couples but in Central America it is a day for spend time with your beloved one and with your friends as well.

I also forgot too. Feliz dia de la amistad (Happy Valentines day) to all.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE FEB 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE FA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND BROAD TROUGHINESS TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT WHICH TIME THE PATTERN FLATTENS
A BIT...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ALIGN AND
RE-BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF A FEW MORE DAYS OF NON-EXISTENT
CAP LOCALLY...A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...PATCHES AND BANDS OF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME
TO TIME...AND DECENT INSOLATION AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
LOCALLY THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...WITH
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...A SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR AND POSSIBLY PAST THE FA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A RE-BUILDING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TURN THE PATTERN MUCH DRIER AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS CONT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHG WED. BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDS PSBL AT TAF SITES DUE TO
SHRA...AND INTMT PDS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS PSBL WEST INTERIOR OF PR
THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WIND FLOW CONT 15 KTS OR LESS BLO 12K FT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SEAS WILL THEN BUILD LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS...WITH THESE
SWELLS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS FOR TODAY AND THERE
IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
WITH MORE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE WILDFIRES.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY TODAY...AND
THIS COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF SMALL WILDFIRES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 73 / 20 50 50 50
STT 84 73 84 74 / 20 30 30 30