#151 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:34 am
ZCZC 451
WTIO30 FMEE 150702
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/5/20102011
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/15 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5S / 45.7E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 555 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/15 18 UTC: 17.7S/43.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/02/16 06 UTC: 18.4S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/02/16 18 UTC: 19.2S/41.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/17 06 UTC: 20.2S/41.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2011/02/17 18 UTC: 21.1S/42.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2011/02/18 06 UTC: 22.8S/43.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 19/02/2011 06 UTC: 25.7S/43.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 20/02/2011 06 UTC: 28.8S/44.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EX-BINGIZA RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. FIX AT 15/00Z WAS PROBABLY TOO MUCH WEST.
EX-BINGIZA IS TRACKING WEST-WOUTH-WEST AT ABOUT 9KT.
CONVECTION OVER LAND IS WEAK, BUT IT IS INTENSIFYING OVER SEA IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH A GOOD MONSOON INFLOW.
ACTUAL FORECAST ESTIMATES A COME BACK OVER WATER TODAY AROUND 15Z IN
THE
VICINITY OF BASALAMPY. BY 36 TAU, SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK PROGRESSIVELY
SOUTH
-WESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. BEYOND
48
TAU, IT SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN COAST
OF
MADAGASCA
R, A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMING THE MAIN PILOT
OF
THE SYSTEM STEERING FLOW. ACTUAL FORECAST IS MORE WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS
ONE, AND ACCORDING TO THAT, SYSTEM SHOULDN'T MAKE ANOTHER LANDFALL ON
THE
SOUTH-WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. BUT THIS TRACK AFTER 72 TAU IS
RATHER
UNCERTAI
N.
OVER WATER, SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FOR
REGENERATION : GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD, SST
>30OC
. BUT UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE A LIMITANT FACTOR FOR
RAPID REGENERATION BY 24TAU.
BEYOND 24TAU AND TRHOUGH FRIDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP
TO
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. AFTER FRIDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD
DETERIORATE (WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL EQUATORIAL INFLOW,
STRENGTHENING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH).=
NNNN
0 likes