Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST TUE FEB 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE FA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND BROAD TROUGHINESS TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT WHICH TIME THE PATTERN FLATTENS
A BIT...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ALIGN AND
RE-BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. TONIGHT EXPECT
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW
AFFECTING THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST STATIONARY AND EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. IT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS
REMNANTS REACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALL TAF SITES
THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANGE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES DUE TO SHRA...AND INTMT PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE WEST INTERIOR OF PR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EAST
WIND FLOW CONTINUE 15 KTS OR LESS BLO 12K FT.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SMALL
NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL WATER ATLANTIC
WATERS ON THURSDAY THEREFORE THIS SCA COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH
THE INCOMING WEEKEND. A LARGER AND NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BE
REACHING THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 73 83 / 50 50 50 50
STT 74 83 74 84 / 30 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

Moderate northerly winds are still blowing today in Central America but they have been on a weakening trend through the day. The maximum temperatures were still cooler than normal in most of the region except in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Panama where near normal highs were registered. The minimum temperatures this morning were lower, similar or warmer than yesterday depending on the location.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10°C (50.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.8°C (58.6°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.1°C (39.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.2°C (59.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.0°C (60.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.7°C (99.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 23.6°C (74.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.6°C (47.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.0°C (71.6°F)

Maximum Wind Gusts
Belize city, Belize 18 km/h (11 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 45 km/h (28 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29 km/h (18 mph)
Ishuatan, El Salvador 48 km/h (30 mph)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 48 km/h (30 mph)
Nueva Ocotepeque, Honduras 46 km/h (29 mph)
Esteli, Nicaragua 39 km/h (24 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 39 km/h (24 mph)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 45 km/h (28 mph)
Panama city, Panama 40 km/h (25 mph)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will be the rule today in Puerto Rico.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 AM AST WED FEB 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD POLAR TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN/CNTRL ATLC
BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CDFNT EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
ATLC SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF 20N
THU THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ALONG WITH SHIP REPORTS AND AN
ASCAT PASS LATE YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWS A SHEARLINE LOCATED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS TO JUST NORTH OF AGUADILLA AND INTO MONA
PASSAGE WHERE NMRS SHOWERS ARE NOTED. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
POOL ALONG THIS BDRY TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FCST TO RISE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT NRMS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL 80-KT JET
STREAK RIDING NORTH OF HISPANIOLA PER SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ACARS DATA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AS RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK STILL FCST NORTH OF THE AREA AND AREA UNDER
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. BY FRIDAY...SHEARLINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND JET STREAK MOVED WELL EAST WITH A DECREASE
IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED AND SHOWERS FOCUSING MORE OVR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES/ATLC WATERS AS REMNANTS OF
FRONT GET CLOSER TO THE AREA UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW.

AFTER SAT MORNING WILL SEE A STEADILY DECLINE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS SFC TO MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. MODEL PW FCST VALUES ARE QUITE LOW FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 0.75 INCHES. THIS TELLS ABOUT THE
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE AIR MASS MOVING IN WITH EXTREMELY LOW VALUES
FOR THE TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HRS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BTW
16/17Z-16/22Z IN SHRA OR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD OVR THE WEEKEND WITH 6-8 FT SEAS LIKELY
UNDER EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES AND NORTH SWELLS. SCA ARE LIKELY
FOR THE ATLC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALL AREAS COULD USE SOME RAINS AS LATEST KBDI
ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM 400 TO 800 PRETTY MUCH OVER THE
ENTIRE ISLAND INDICATING HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER THREAT. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW
THAT AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS COULD BE THE START TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRYNESS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A CRITICAL PERIOD OF FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY NEXT WEEK UNDER VERY LOW RH
VALUES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 73 / 30 50 20 30
STT 83 74 83 74 / 20 30 10 20

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
208 PM AST WED FEB 16 2011

PRC021-047-051-135-137-143-162000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0001.110216T1808Z-110216T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-TOA BAJA PR-
208 PM AST WED FEB 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

AT 230 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
AN AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE METROPOLITAN AREA...SPECIALLY ACROSS GUAYNABO...BAYAMON AND TOA
ALTA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS
EXPECTED UNTIL 400 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6629 1839 6614 1832 6621 1837 6634

$$

FIGUEROA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST WED FEB 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD POLAR TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN/CNTRL ATLC
BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CDFNT EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
ATLC SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF 20N
THU THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SFC TO MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CU LINE DEVELOPED OVER EL YUNQUE AND SPREADED WEST
NORTHWEST OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF BAYAMON AND
GUAYNABO...GENERATING ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. ALSO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.


AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH AN UNSTABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK STILL FCST NORTH
OF THE AREA AND AREA UNDER CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION.


THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON A RIDGE IS TO BUILD FROM THE GULF TO
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...DRIVING THE CYCLONIC TONGUE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS WILL BRING A MID/UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...TO SUSTAIN A DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HRS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BTW
17/18Z-17/22Z IN SHRA OR TSRA. LATEST 16/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 10K
FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.


&&

.MARINE...EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE WATERS. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING A MODERATE SWELL IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASING WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST LOCAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AND SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A MUCH BIGGER SWELL AND WITH A
LONGER PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL
LOCAL PASSAGES BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. FULL
MOON WILL BE ON FEB 19 AND 20...THEREFORE EXPECT TIDES TO BE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
EROSION TO OCCUR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 82 / 30 30 30 30
STT 73 84 73 84 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

The surge of cold air ended last night and today we're returning to a warmer pattern and for the first time in 5 days we had a southerly afternoon breeze.
-Belize and Guatemala were the only countries that today had cooler than yesterday minimum temps, the maximum were warmer though.
-The rest of the countries had warmer than or similar to yesterday lows.
-The maximum temps in El Salvador were the warmest in at least 10 days.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 18°C (64°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.8°C (33.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.1°C (50.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.8°C (58.6°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.1°C (39.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.2°C (61.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82.4°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 30°C (86°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.5°C (101.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 24.8°C (76.6°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.1°C (80.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.3°C (54.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
756 PM AST WED FEB 16 2011

PRC003-005-011-071-081-099-117-131-141-170200-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110217T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-
LARES PR-RINCON PR-ANASCO PR-
756 PM AST WED FEB 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...
LARES...RINCON AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

AT 755 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES
DETECTING
A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS
EXPECTED UNTIL 1000 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1834 6731 1850 6717 1831 6673 1822 6678

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 PM AST WED FEB 16 2011

.UPDATE...A FRONTAL SHEARLINE LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS BY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
IN TURN WILL INCREASE THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP
ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREA OF PUERTO RICO...AND THIS AIDED BY
GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION WAS AIDING IN PROLONGING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS. AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION....TO AID IN SHOWER AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS MID
TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
AND A MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN IS SET UP. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS
TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS BASED ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...AND TJBQ IN PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST 17/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND
STRONGER ABOVE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.More rain expected for today in Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 AM AST THU FEB 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN/CNTRL
ATLC SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
TO MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROMOTE A SIG
DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY. AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH PW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE SC COAST DIVING SE AND THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST NEXT 48 HRS WITH TROF AXIS MOVING
PAST PR/USVI FRI NIGHT. STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG
WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG
100-KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK NORTH OF 20N WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. TODAY SHOULD BE
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ON FRI ACTIVITY SHOULD CONCENTRATE MORE
OVR SOUTHWEST PR AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE A MARKED DECREASE IN CONVECTION SAT AS LOCAL AREA
BECOMES UNDER STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AS TROF AXIS
MOVES EAST AND PW VALUES DROP TO NEAR AN INCH. HOWEVER...
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BDRY WILL GET CLOSER TO THE AREA SUN MORNING
AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT MORNING SHOWERS UNDER
A STRENGHTENING NORTHEAST FLOW BUT RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER.

STRONG SFC TO MID LVL RIDGING WILL BUILD FOR NEXT WEEK PROMOTING
SIG DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SEVERAL WEAK DRY/STABLE COLD
FRONTS ARE FCST BY LATEST GFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK
BASED ON 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES. PW VALUES FCST FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE EXTREMELY LOW WITH VALUES UNDER HALF INCH ACCORDING TO
LATEST 00Z ECMWF. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE LOWEST EVER OBSERVED
FOR FEB ACCORDING TO A PW CLIMATOLOGY CHART DATING BACK TO 1948.
THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF HOW DRY IS THE AIR MASS FCST
TO MOVE IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HRS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BTW
17/17Z-17/22Z IN SHRA OR TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS IN NORTH SWELLS AND EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. SEAS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO IMPROVE ANYTIME SOON ACROSS ALL ATLC WATERS AND CARIB
PASSAGES AS MODELS MAINTAIN SEVEN FOOT SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER BIGGER SWELL EVENT FCST FOR NEXT TUE AS SEVERAL LARGE
STORM SYSTEMS DOMINATE THE NORTH ATLC OCEAN SENDING OCCASIONAL PULSES
OF LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK DUE TO A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND HIGH CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINS. HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MINIMAL RAINFALL HAS FALLEN THE PAST TWO DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THROUGH FEB 16TH ONLY 0.99 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ACCUMULATED
AT THE CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT (TISX) IN ST. CROIX. THIS REPRESENTS
THE DRIEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD. SO FAR FEB 2011 RANKS AS
THE FIFTH DRIEST FEB ON RECORD. RAINFALL OUTLOOK THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MONTH DOES NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING FOR ST. CROIX AND FEB
2011 IS LIKELY TO END IN THE FIRST TEN DRIEST FEB ON RECORD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 73 / 30 30 30 50
STT 84 72 83 72 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1125 AM AST THU FEB 17 2011

.UPDATE...SATELLITE DERIVED TPW DATA REVEALS A COLD FRONT LOCATED
ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING...SPREADING
BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME
TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS JET DYNAMICS
CONTINUE FAVORABLE...EXPECTING WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLES TO GROW PROGRESSIVELY MORE ACTIVE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY AND LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES. ANOTHER DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN
17/17-21Z.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST THU FEB 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS OVER THE WEEKEND...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADES WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WEST
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING
IN INTERVAL OF CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IN TURN WILL
INCREASE THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS THE STEERING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND
A MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN IS SET UP. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS
TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS BASED ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HRS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BTW
18/17Z-18/22Z IN SHRA OR TSRA.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
700 PM AST THU FEB 17 2011

PRC075-111-113-180100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0003.110217T2300Z-110218T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-PENUELAS PR-
700 PM AST THU FEB 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND PENUELAS

* UNTIL 900 PM AST

* AT 658 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
IS DETECTING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS JUANA
DIAZ...PONCE...AND PENUELAS. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS
EXPECTED UNTIL 900 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1798 6670 1802 6670 1802 6643 1797 6644

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Macrocane]

Maximum temperatures continue to warm up in Central America and actually today was the warmest day in at least 7 days in Belize, Guatemala and Honduras, today was also the warmest day in 2 weeks in El Salvador. In contrast some very cold minimum temperatures were registered in the high areas.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0°C (32°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.2°C (46.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.6°C (40.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.8°C (58.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 25.1°C (77.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.8°C (101.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 25.9°C (78.6°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.8°C (58.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST THU FEB 17 2011

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...AS
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEARLINE DRIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE REGION. LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO GRADUALLY MOVED OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATED
AFTER PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS. A FEW ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WERE
ALSO NOTED ENTERING PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE EVENING. INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
GOOD FOR NOW...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. LATEST
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER AS A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL AND TRADE WIND MOISTURE MOVED IN
ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION MADE TO SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM AND
TKPK IN PASSING SHOWERS. LATEST 18/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO 10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLIES AND STRONGER ABOVE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Today will be a rainy day in Puerto Rico and the rest of the NE Caribbean,so prepare for that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD POLAR TROF WILL DOMINATE THE CNTRL ATLC INTO
NEXT WEEK. SFC-MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF BERMUDA TO HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WILL MOVE ACROSS PR/USVI BY THE END OF THE DAY.
LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING
70-KT JET STREAK. AT LOW LEVELS...BLENDED TPW AND RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE
INGREDIENTS FVRL THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITH DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 350 MB. CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF CELLS AND VERY PW AIR FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. GREATEST CVRG EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PR
DUE TO DEEPENING NERLY LOW-LVL WIND FLOW BUT ALL AREAS AT RISK.

TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LVL MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA WITH DEPARTING
TROF AXIS AND SUBTROPICAL JET. MODELS SHOW A SURGE IN NE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST ESPECIALLY ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN.
CONCERN FOR WIND ADVZY CRITERIA WINDS FOR THE LATTER TWO DUE TO NE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACCELERATING THROUGH SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
ST. THOMAS VERY NOTORIOUS FOR BLOWING OVER 35-KT IN THESE
SITUATIONS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PR
UNDER A GUSTY NE FLOW.

SAT-SUN...PW VALUES COME DOWN SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY BUT K INDICES
STAY UP IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE INDICATIVE OF PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SO HAVE GONE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN CLOUDS AND POPS FOR SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE A MARKED A
DECREASE IN CONVECTION ON SUN BUT STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP SCT SHALLOW CONVECTION.

IS NOT REALLY UNTIL MON WHEN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER
TO REALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A WEAK DRY/STABLE CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WEATHER
OVER LAND JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR WATER. REST OF THE NEXT WEEK
STILL LOOKS BONE DRY WITH PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND HALF INCH. MAY
NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS PUERTO RICO...WITH ITS REMNANTS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS ALL PR AND VI TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. PREVAILING VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AFT 19/00Z ESPECIALLY AT TIST.


&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ACROSS
ALL ATLC WATERS AND PASSAGES DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
NORTH SWELLS. A BIGGER SWELL EVENT IS FCST FOR NEXT TUE WITH WNA
MODEL INDICATING SEAS UP TO 13 FT. LATEST WAVEWATCH ENSEMBLE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SIG PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 4-METER SEAS
SO HAVE CAPPED SEAS UP TO 10 FT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 73 / 40 60 60 60
STT 82 71 83 73 / 40 60 60 20

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1108 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2011

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MOVED SOUTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE
NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE NOW FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...
AS REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEARLINE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...INDUCING PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOME AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURGE IN NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS STARTING TONIGHT. BANDS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...INDUCING PERIODS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR
NOW...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS PUERTO RICO...WITH ITS REMNANTS CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS ALL PR AND VI TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

[Macrocane]

Hi! the thread of Central American Cold Surges has been updated with the info from the event that occurred during the weeken and early this week.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 181904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST FRI FEB 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD POLAR TROF WILL DOMINATE THE CNTRL ATLC INTO
NEXT WEEK. SFC-MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AIR MASS MOVED OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING LIMITING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AFTER SUNSET. RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE
EVENING. A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL HELP MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE TET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND GENERATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEREFORE EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...MVFR
CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS ALL PR AND VI TAF
SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SWELLS HAVE ALREADY REACH THE LOCAL WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES...THE BUOY 40153 IS REPORTING SWELLS OF AROUND 7 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 12 SECONDS. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE WW3 CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MUCH BIGGER AND WITH
A LONGER PERIOD BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 73 81 / 50 30 40 20
STT 71 83 73 84 / 30 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Yesterday El Salvador experienced the first rains of February but they were very light and isolated showers in the mountains near the border with Honduras. The stations that registered the highest amounts were:

Las Pilas 2.4 mm/0.09 inches
Oscicala 1.0 mm/0.04 inches