Why are I names always bad?

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Of course most of this is just pure random chance.

However, I think a bit of it can be blamed on the modern satellite era, where every tropical system everywhere in the basin that even makes it to tropical storm strength for half a day will probably be named, combined with the decision starting in 2002 to name subtropical storms as well as tropical ones.

Storms that occur near the start of a season are more likely to be subtropical, and more likely to be weak. When they are named, their names are therefore less likely to be retired because the storms are not as likely to be damaging. Storms in the middle of the season would be somewhat more likely to be damaging enough to be retired.

Since we are now in an active cycle for the Atlantic, I think that means that A, B, and C names are less likely to be given to really damaging storms and names a bit lower down in the alphabet (F, G, H, and I) are more likely to be the really big ones.

This is of course a bit unfortunate for people choosing replacement names, since F and I are the two letters in the first half of the alphabet where the average person not really interested in names (like I presume the meteorologists who are normally trying to think up replacements are) will have the hardest time coming up new unused names that start with them.

There will of course still be some early alphabet storms, like Alex, that are bad enough to be candidates for retirement. It's just that average chances for retirement would now be highest for names a bit lower down on the lists.

[Metalicwx220]

I believe its because that the I storms form usually when the peak of the season is around or in september. 2005 got off fast and Irene formed really early.

[HurricaneRyan]

Of course most of this is just pure random chance.

However, I think a bit of it can be blamed on the modern satellite era, where every tropical system everywhere in the basin that even makes it to tropical storm strength for half a day will probably be named, combined with the decision starting in 2002 to name subtropical storms as well as tropical ones.

Storms that occur near the start of a season are more likely to be subtropical, and more likely to be weak. When they are named, their names are therefore less likely to be retired because the storms are not as likely to be damaging. Storms in the middle of the season would be somewhat more likely to be damaging enough to be retired.

Since we are now in an active cycle for the Atlantic, I think that means that A, B, and C names are less likely to be given to really damaging storms and names a bit lower down in the alphabet (F, G, H, and I) are more likely to be the really big ones.

This is of course a bit unfortunate for people choosing replacement names, since F and I are the two letters in the first half of the alphabet where the average person not really interested in names (like I presume the meteorologists who are normally trying to think up replacements are) will have the hardest time coming up new unused names that start with them.

There will of course still be some early alphabet storms, like Alex, that are bad enough to be candidates for retirement. It's just that average chances for retirement would now be highest for names a bit lower down on the lists.

That was very well said!

[StormClouds63]

If Isidore had not made landfall and then unexpectedly stalled over the Yucatan, it would have made landfall on the Louisiana coast as at least a Cat 3. By the time the system finally did move north, it entrained a lot of dry air as a frontal trough moved south across the Gulf coast. At is peak, it certainly looked impressive on satellite ... notice the outflow as well.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... 65_lrg.jpg

[PTrackerLA]

I've always thought Isidore could have been a 'Katrina-like" storm for the New Orleans/MS areas if it weren't for unexpectedly making Landfall and stalling over the Yucatan. Even before the stall it was forecasted to target that same general area but possibly as a major hurricane. And look at the ultimate track . Nearly identical 48 hours and out approach. Amazing how you can get lucky like that.

Right on the heels of that storm we had cat 4 Lili bearing down as a direct hit on my area during the first few days of October 2002. I vividly remember (wish I had recorded it!) our local weather channel forecast showing gusts to 135mph predicted the evening before landfall (mid morning). At that point I was hoping we hadn't made a bad decision staying in Lafayette. Then the sudden weakening to a cat 2 then cat 1 occured as it moved very close to us and were actually in what was left of the eastern eyewall. Still received gusts to hurricane force and since it had been a decade since Andrew (the last storm of any consequence to affect the area) there was widespread downed trees and total power outages for days. Still, we lucked out, big time.

Anyway got off on a tangent on that year, but I remember it so well along with 2005 and 2008 for these parts. But it just goes to show you, living along the gulf coast, you never know when you're big 'Storm of the Ages' is coming so it's best to be prepared every season! As far as this year, Irene doesn't sound too menancing right now, but Katia sure does!

[Hurricane Jed]

Can we include Eastern Pacific I names in here? Iniki, Ioke, Iwa, Ismael.

[Aslkahuna]

Don't want to use Irma-that's an old WPAC name and most of the Irmas were really nasty.

Steve

[Ptarmigan]

I've always thought Isidore could have been a 'Katrina-like" storm for the New Orleans/MS areas if it weren't for unexpectedly making Landfall and stalling over the Yucatan. Even before the stall it was forecasted to target that same general area but possibly as a major hurricane. And look at the ultimate track http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png. Nearly identical 48 hours and out approach. Amazing how you can get lucky like that.

Right on the heels of that storm we had cat 4 Lili bearing down as a direct hit on my area during the first few days of October 2002. I vividly remember (wish I had recorded it!) our local weather channel forecast showing gusts to 135mph predicted the evening before landfall (mid morning). At that point I was hoping we hadn't made a bad decision staying in Lafayette. Then the sudden weakening to a cat 2 then cat 1 occured as it moved very close to us and were actually in what was left of the eastern eyewall. Still received gusts to hurricane force and since it had been a decade since Andrew (the last storm of any consequence to affect the area) there was widespread downed trees and total power outages for days. Still, we lucked out, big time.

Anyway got off on a tangent on that year, but I remember it so well along with 2005 and 2008 for these parts. But it just goes to show you, living along the gulf coast, you never know when you're big 'Storm of the Ages' is coming so it's best to be prepared every season! As far as this year, Irene doesn't sound too menancing right now, but Katia sure does!

Had Isidore hit New Orleans as a major hurricane, it probably would of been much worse than Katrina.

[Hurricane Jed]

Why do you say that? Granted Isidore could have been stronger than Katrina at landfall. But Katrina was larger and hurricane force winds extended out over a 100 miles. Plus Katrina was slow moving. Look at what Ike did producing a Category 5 storm surge despite only being a Category 2 at landfall. Size and forward speed are also critical factors on how bad a storms effects will be.