SPO: ATU (11F/17P) Tropical Cyclone

[Bobo2000]

I really think this storm should be upgraded to a Cat 2 or Cat 3 cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 19/0322 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0
SOUTH 169.3 EAST AT 190100UTC. POSITION FAIR.
REPEATED POSITION 16.0S 169.3E AT 190100 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 200100 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND
60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.8S 169.2E AT 191300 UTC
AND NEAR 17.4S 169.4E AT 200100 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.


THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 008.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 19/0507 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
169.3E AT 190100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND
60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY
BAND WRAPPED AROUND LLCC. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED PAST 24 HOURS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A WEAK NORHTWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY RECEDING TO THE WEST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT = 3.0, MET AND PT AGREES, FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTENSIFYING IT.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 191300 UTC 16.8S 169.2E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 200100 UTC 17.4S 169.4E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 201300 UTC 17.9S 169.7E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 210100 UTC 18.5S 170.2E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 190800 UTC.

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.9S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.5S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.6S 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.6S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.1S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 27.2S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 34.5S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 169.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (ATU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ATU HAS INTENSIFIED 15 KNOTS SINCE
YESTERDAY AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING EYE IN
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI). THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND
NFFN, WHICH ALL ASSIGN A 3.0 T-NUMBER. THE POSITION IS BASED ON
CONSERVATIVE CLOUD FEATURES IN MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK, ACCOUNTING FOR NEAR QUASISTATIONARY
MOTION. THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
TO THE EAST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AFTER 36
HOURS. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DIG INTO THE SUB-TROPICS BY
DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR MARKED SOUTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION. AROUND THIS TIME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ELEVATE, INITIATING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
NEAR NORTHERN NEW ZEALAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Up to 3.5/3.5

19/1432 UTC 16.5S 168.6E T3.5/3.5 17P -- Southwest Pacific

[cycloneye]

The latest at 15:00z

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 19/1406 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 987HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
168.7E AT 191200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY 200000
UTC.CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
PAST 6 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO
500 HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CIMMS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED SOUTH BY A WEAK NORHTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON 0.75 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT = 3.0,
MET=3.0 PT=3.0, FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 17.0S 168.7E MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 17.5S 169.1E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 18.2S 169.4E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 19.4S 169.8E MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 192000 UTC.

[Crostorm]

[cycloneye]

First visible image.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 2100z Warning

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 169.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 169.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.0S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.5S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.4S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.9S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.8S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.7S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 169.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM WEST OF NADI,
FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 191731Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE WITH A CONCENTRIC EYE-WALL
AND CONFIRMS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW SOURCE, IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SHORT-WAVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) WHICH WILL CAUSE GENERALLY SLOW AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AS AN APPROACHING HIGH-AMPLITUDE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING RIDGE AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE PASSING TROUGH. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE PASSING TROUGH, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, WHILE IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE
SSTS UNTIL AROUND 28 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. TC ATU IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 96, AND
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS A STORM FORCE LOW BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD IN THE EARLY TAUS, DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN, BUT BECOME TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATER TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR WBAR, WHICH APPEARS TO BE
MIS-ANALYZING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
PATTERN, BUT REMAINS WITHIN THE DYNAMIC AIDS ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

19/2032 UTC 16.7S 169.2E T3.5/3.5 ATU -- Southwest Pacific

[Bobo2000]

latest

[KWT]

I think the JWTC is rather conservative I suspect looking at the way this one is developing...

[Chacor]

Hello there, pinhole eye...

[Chacor]

TXPS28 KNES 200038


A. 17P (ATU)

B. 19/2332Z

C. 16.7S

D. 169.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION ISSUED DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS APPEARED IN VIS IMAGERY COINCIDENT WITH A WARM SPOT
IN EIR IMAGERY. W EYE EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...CMG RESULTS IN A
DT OF 5.5 AFTER 1.0 IS SUBTRACTED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT IS 5.0 WHILE
MET IS 4.5 FOR THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
LIMITING DEVELOPMENT TO 1.0 T NUMBER OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

If SAB had chosen to break constraints this would easily be a T5.5.

[Chacor]

JTWC has also issued a special classification:

TPPS10 PGTW 200045

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU)

B. 19/2332Z

C. 16.8S

D. 169.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
EMBEDDED CENTER TO CMG SURROUNDING CNVCTN YIELDS 5.0 DT. MET
YIELDS 4.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR CONSTRAINTS. PT YIELDS 4.5. SYSTEM
INCREASED DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER 12 HOUR PERIOD. DBO
MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/2016Z 16.9S 169.2E SSMS


ROSS

[Bobo2000]

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.7S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 169.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM WEST OF NADI,
FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 191731Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE WITH A CONCENTRIC EYE-WALL
AND CONFIRMS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW SOURCE, IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SHORT-WAVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) WHICH WILL CAUSE GENERALLY SLOW AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AS AN APPROACHING HIGH-AMPLITUDE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING RIDGE AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE PASSING TROUGH. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE PASSING TROUGH, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, WHILE IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE
SSTS UNTIL AROUND 28 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. TC ATU IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 96, AND
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS A STORM FORCE LOW BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD IN THE EARLY TAUS, DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN, BUT BECOME TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATER TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR WBAR, WHICH APPEARS TO BE
MIS-ANALYZING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
PATTERN, BUT REMAINS WITHIN THE DYNAMIC AIDS ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Based on the looks and rapid intensification trends, I would guess 80 kt for the current intensity.