Texas Winter 2010-2011

[jeff]

:uarrow: LOL me too.. I eat popsicles in the winter and I like to sleep with the ac blasting. lol

So do I - cold at night for sleeping - AC blasting or windows open in winter. But not cold while biking.

Biking in the cold is just no good...for road riding especially with the wind...now mountain biking is OK as you are more protected. I went for 22 miles this morning in the fog and that increased humidity had me sweating for the first time. Temperatures really are not my issue, but the wind. Going (or at least attempting to keep 20mph) into a 20mph head wind is no fun at all.

[Turtle]

GFS is showing lows in mid to upper 30s for me on Tuesday. Still on track. If not, my last freeze is in Feb 12, about 1 month or more earlier than average.

At 348 hours and later, GFS is showing lows in the teens and highs in the low 20s. Hopefully this will be the winter finale!

[Metalicwx220]

LOL it has a blizzard or whatever that is for florida and Georgia at 384 hours.

[Ntxw]

Man lol clash of the models. If the ECMWF is right, at 240 hours Mexico extending up the plains is baking (relative to this time of year). What a horrible sight! GFS of course is cooler (no pun intended).

[wxman57]

Fortunately (for me), the 00Z and 06Z GFS runs (and Euro) indicate the freeze line just touching north TX (Dallas area) on a couple of occasions the next few weeks. No teens.

[txagwxman]

Models have completely backed off for Texas...oh well it was fun when it lasted...I need to move to Dallas.

[jinftl]

Temps will be flirting with 90 degrees in Laredo today...'cool down' to 70 on Tuesday and jump back to the mid to high 80s for the rest of the week....hot even by this south floridians standards!!!

(NWS Dallas calls for 65-70 deg temps late week into next weekend in the metroplex, NWS Houston calls for 75-80 deg temps for the same period.....grrr....time for us in the south to think about the atlantic and not the arctic as the next news-making weather maker i think...)


NWS Forecast for: 7 Miles NNW Laredo International Airport TX
Issued by: National Weather Service Corpus Christi, TX
Last Update: 7:40 am CST Feb 20, 2011

Today: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 89.
Washington's Birthday: Sunny, with a high near 86.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 70.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 87.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 87.

[Ntxw]

Why has no one said anything about the 1050s (1056) mb high being generated by the GFS in the short term in western Canada? (And long term for that matter) Sure the pattern might not be right for it to come directly south but the sheer weight of it alone gives hope it might brush Texas!

[pwrdog]

LOL it has a blizzard or whatever that is for florida and Georgia at 384 hours.

It happened in 1993! It can happen again..

It snowed just north of Houston in April 2007...

Winter is not over.. Plenty of cold air to work with...

Russia Current conditions- 2/21/2011- 2:00 am

Oymyakon, -70 °F

[jinftl]

Lots of cold left for Siberia....no question about that. The correlation between what the temperature is in Sibera compared to Texas is not a perfect one...esp as we head into late Feb and March....while temps can still reach -70 deg in Siberia this time of year...climatology down in the temperate zone that texas is in dictates that the average last frost date has already passed in deep south texas and will work its way north to the houston/austin/san antonio areas in the next few weeks....probably explains why people used to be sent to siberia as punishment back in the days of the u.s.s.r.!!!

[jerryh421]

Lots of cold left for Siberia....no question about that. The correlation between what the temperature is in Sibera compared to Texas is not a perfect one...esp as we head into late Feb and March....while temps can still reach -70 deg in Siberia this time of year...climatology down in the temperate zone that texas is in dictates that the average last frost date has already passed in deep south texas and will work its way north to the houston/austin/san antonio areas in the next few weeks....probably explains why people used to be sent to siberia as punishment back in the days of the u.s.s.r.!!!

http://imavex.vo.llnwd.net/o18/clients/ ... gZones.jpg

So meaning we won't see another freeze?

[Ntxw]

Winter is over in a sense if you're looking for historical blasts of tundra like early Feb. But we all know any typical winter that isn't always the first place to look for cold and wintry precip. It is the rogue cut off lows that often are not associated with arctic sure (of course both in unison would be ideal) but that is not always needed especially the northern half of the state. In that sense, our chances are not at 0 up until April but those are hard to predict and can never be counted out.

[orangeblood]

The +NAO, strong southeastern US ridge should prevent any cold air from making it too far south into Texas over the next 7-10 days. The models haven't been forecasting the magnitude of the NAO very well - this is why you've seen the models trending warmer and warmer compared to what they showed last week.

[Ntxw]

Right on cue, GFS and Euro are depicting a stacked/deep cut off over the southern plains. Of course where this thing goes has big implications, but as is, you would have a rogue winter storm (been shown for awhile) from the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma along it's path verbatim. But that is 150+ hours away and plenty of time to keep thoughts.
18z GFS


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

12z GFs


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

12z ECMWF (532dm Central/Southern Oklahoma on 5h charts at hour 174 courtesy accuwx pro)


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cheezyWXguy]

Right on cue, GFS and Euro are depicting a stacked/deep cut off over the southern plains. Of course where this thing goes has big implications, but as is, you would have a rogue winter storm (been shown for awhile) from the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma along it's path verbatim. But that is 150+ hours away and plenty of time to keep thoughts.
18z GFS


12z GFs


12z ECMWF (532dm Central/Southern Oklahoma on 5h charts at hour 174 courtesy accuwx pro)

When I saw that, I thought more of a severe event than a last shot at winter weather. Temps seem like they'll be too warm to me.

[Ntxw]

When I saw that, I thought more of a severe event than a last shot at winter weather. Temps seem like they'll be too warm to me.

It could be, but my general knowledge is that systems with 552dm or lower tend to be winter storms especially underneath/behind the low (lower heights means colder air). I've never seen 530s dm not be a winter storm. They generate their own cold air and might not be seen far out (ECMWF dips the 540 thickness into North Texas at 174 but precip ends), if it stands in time it should gradually look colder and more detailed.

I could be wrong, this is just speculation from me to stir chatter as supposed to be on a discussion forum when all hope has but faded . Ahead of it will definitely be a severe weather threat.

[orangeblood]

Hey Ntxw, off topic but did you see JB has announced he is no longer with Accuweather ? Left with no reason and no one has a clue where he's heading. He's one of the best long range forecasters I know and a great teacher. Really odd!!

[Ntxw]

Hey Ntxw, off topic but did you see JB has announced he is no longer with Accuweather ? Left with no reason and no one has a clue where he's heading. He's one of the best long range forecasters I know and a great teacher. Really odd!!

Yeah I did! There's a topic on that in talkin tropics, and has been a buzz around weather forums! He was really good at pointing out weather patterns and using analogs. Wonder if this winter's unpredictability played a role in his resignation? That's a tough loss for accuwx. Other than the ECWMF products I only went on the pro site for the entertaining videos by JB!

[txagwxman]

JOE BASTARDI leaves Accuweather!

[aggiecutter]

Joe Bastardi is now the Chief Meteorologist for the Portastorm Weather Center.