#83 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Feb 20, 2011 4:17 pm
WTXS32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 005//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200421Z//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.6S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.9S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.9S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.8S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.6S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.2S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 30.0S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 121.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS NEAR 996 MB INDICATE THAT TC 15S HAS
INTENSIFIED INTO A 35 KNOT CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH TC 15S HAS TRACKED
RAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, IT IS
LIKELY TO SLOW A BIT OVER THE UPCOMING SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP OVER WATER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF, SYNOPTIC WIND AND PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS, AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME. TC 15S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CARRYING THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 72. THEREAFTER, THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. TC
15S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM RANGE AS
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITS THE IMPACT
OF PASSAGE OVER A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
ASIDE FROM THE GFDN, WHICH IS DEPICTING A NEARLY STRAIGHT WESTWARD
TRACK, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND THE FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
200421Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
200430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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