Caribbean - Central America Weather

[tropicana]

Tue Feb 22 2011
RAINFALL UPDATE- SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
FEBRUARY ALREADY HAS SEEN TWICE THE AVERAGE RAINFALL

Trinidad and Tobago continues to experience an "un-ordinarily" wet dry
season, with showers making very regular appearances over the past 2 months,
at fairly regular intervals.

Showers returned to the twin-island state overnight as multi-layered dense
overcast skies associated with a mid-level trough progressed northwards over
the southern islands . To 8am local time Tuesday, Piarco Airport in
Central trinidad saw 19.6mm of rain, Crown Point in Tobago 9.4mm. This
rainfall was recorded in just 12 hours.

This new rainfall has propelled the rainfall tally for this month to near
91mm (average for an entire month of February is 43mm) So February has
so far experienced twice the normal amount of rainfall expected.
In recent years, there have been several wet Februarys..including 163.0mm in
Feb 2009, 108.9mm in Feb 2008, and 111.5mm in Feb 1997.

This month is destined to again see rainfall in excess of 100mm, as more
heavy rain has fallen after 8am today.
The wettest February at the airport's location was set back in Feb 1951
with 238.6mm.

UPDATE
1pmET Tue Feb 22/2011

An additional 16mm of rain recorded at Piarco International Airport, Trinidad , in the 6 hours from 8am local time to 2pm local time, (1pmET) bringing the daily rainfall to approx 35.6mm ... and now boosts the February 2011 total up to 107 mm

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST TUE FEB 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN/NORTH
S AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS
THE REGION. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER...WITH A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...SPREADING BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS...AND EARLY MORNING FOG PATCHES OVER THE
INTERIOR. IN ADDITION...LOCAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE ONGOING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING AT BUOY 41053...
AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING IN THE PAST HOURS. AT 3 PM AST...BUOY
41053 OUTSIDE THE ENTRANCE TO SAN JUAN HARBOR REPORTED 9-10 FOOT
SWELL AT 12-13 SECONDS. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES...BRINGING LARGE BREAKING
WAVES TO THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS....BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 72 81 / 20 20 20 20
STT 72 83 71 83 / 10 10 10 10

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Mon-7pmET Tues) for
Tue Feb 22 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 28.4C 83F 44.0mm (Feb 2011 rainfall now 115.2mm)
St Augustine, N. Trinidad 27.2C 81F 40.1mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 25.2C 77F 11.7mm
Point-a-Pierre, SW Trinidad 26.4C 79F 23.9mm
Crown Point, Tobago 28.8C 84F 13.0mm
Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 84F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.2C 85F (Feb 2011 rainfall now 21.9mm)

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.6C 86F trace
Hewannora, St Lucia 29.0C 84F
Vigie, St Lucia 29.0C 84F 0.6mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.4C 85F 0.3mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 28.4C 83F 6.8mm

VC Bird, Antingua 27.9C 82F 0.5mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.2C 83F
West End, Anguilla 28.3C 83F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.2C 81F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.6C 85F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.8C 87F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.1C 86F
Havana, Cuba 30.3C 86F
Key West, Florida 25.6C 78F
Miami, Florida 30.0C 86F
Nassau, Bahamas 29.0C 84F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.8C 70F 2.8mm

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Today was a warmer day than yesterday in the region especially in the northern half on the other hand some of the coolest lows of the month occured in the southern half:

-Belize city experienced its warmest low of the year so far, the Mountain Pine Ridge Forest Reserve experienced the warmest high of the year.
-Zacapa (Guatemala) registered its warmest high of the year.
-Honduras had the warmest maximum temps since February 2.
-Managua and San Jose experienced the 2nd coolest minimum temps for this month so far.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.9°C (37.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.5°C (47.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.1°C (57.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.7°C (58.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.7°C (99.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)

[Macrocane]

The strongest earthquake of the year so far in El Salvador occured less than an hour ago. According to the SNET the magnitude was 5.7 and was located south of the Gulf of Fonseca, thankfully there are no reports of damages yet in El Salvador or Nicaragua. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2118248#p2118248

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST WED FEB 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN NORTHWARDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WHILE A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
WEST FROM ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE REST OF THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL BRING A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVIOUS 23/00Z TJSJ UPPER
AIR SOUNDING...AS WELL AS CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYZES SHOWED
LAYERED PWAT VALUES WELL BELOW AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE... EXPECT
ONLY LIMITED PATCHES OF SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE ADVECTION....AS
AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL. DAYTIME SHOWERS ACTIVITY IF
ANY WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IS FORECAST FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY ACROSS NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVELS EXPECT THE EASTERLY TRADES TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY FRIDAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH ENTERS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AND BUILDS EAST AND SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRING AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES
AND WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THIS EXPECTED PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. SO FOR NOW EXPECT MOSTLY LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING BURSTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION BROUGHT IN BY THE COOL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS...AND EARLY MORNING FOG PATCHES OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS TIL 23/11Z. THE TJSJ 23/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED
A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW BTW 5-15 KNOTS SFC-20K FEET...THEN BCMG
MORE WESTERLY AND INCR WITH HGT ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 73 / 10 20 20 20
STT 84 69 83 72 / 10 10 10 20

[tropicana]

‎7AMET UPDATE Wed Feb 23/2011

Overcast mid-level altostratus cloud layer continued to cover the Southern Caribbean Islands overnight and this morning.Periods of rain fell overnight at the airport in Trinidad, adding another 11 mm to the rain gauge, and putting the rainfall total for this month to approx 126 mm ( 5 inches). The average rainfall in Trinidad during February is 43 mm.
Rain also moved across Tobago and to some extent in Grenada and the Grenadines, and portions of Barbados.
The steadiest rainfall this morning was located off the SE coast of Trinidad.

WETTEST FEBRUARYS AT PIARCO AIRPORT, TRINIDAD (available data)
(very few Februarys have broken the 100mm marker)

Feb 1951 238.6mm
Feb 2009 163.0mm
Feb 2011 126.0mm ** and counting

Feb 1997 111.5mm
Feb 2008 108.9mm
Feb 2006 84.9mm
Feb 1985 84.4mm
Feb 1981 75.2mm
Feb 2004 73.9mm
Feb 1989 66.5mm

[cycloneye]

I edited the title as is very interesting what is going on in the SE Caribbean with the above average rainfall that is occuring. Thanks Justin for bringing those updates about the rainfall in that area.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST WED FEB 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS LOCALLY...
SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...
THAT SAID...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR A SHEAR LINE
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
LONG PERIOD...NORTH SWELLS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...HAVE SUBSIDED
STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THIS DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT SEAS GENERALLY
BELOW 7 FEET AND HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS JUST A BIT EARLY. A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALL IN ALL...EXPECT INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING WILDFIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE AGAIN REMINDED TO PLEASE DISPOSE OF ALL
FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THE PROPER RECEPTACLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 72 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 69 82 72 84 / 10 10 20 20

[Macrocane]

‎7AMET UPDATE Wed Feb 23/2011

WETTEST FEBRUARYS AT PIARCO AIRPORT, TRINIDAD (available data)
(very few Februarys have broken the 100mm marker)

Feb 1951 238.6mm
Feb 2009 163.0mm
Feb 2011 126.0mm ** and counting

Feb 1997 111.5mm
Feb 2008 108.9mm
Feb 2006 84.9mm
Feb 1985 84.4mm
Feb 1981 75.2mm
Feb 2004 73.9mm
Feb 1989 66.5mm

It's interesting that 8 of 9 of the years that had a very wet February had fading La Niña conditions, in 5 of those 8 years (1951, 2009, 1997, 2006 and 2004) El Niño conditions developed later in the years and in the other 3 (2008, 1985, 1989) La Niña conditions transitioned to Neutral.

[tropicana]

I edited the title as is very interesting what is going on in the SE Caribbean with the above average rainfall that is occuring. Thanks Justin for bringing those updates about the rainfall in that area.

no problem Luis, it really is interesting.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Tues-7pmET Wed)
for Wed Feb 23 2011

Piarco Airport, C. Trinidad 30.0C 86F 14.0mm ( Feb 2011 rainfall 129.8mm approx)
St AUgustine, N Trinidad 29.4C 85F 4.8mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 27.4C 81F 1.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 27.5C 82F 4.0mm
Point Salines, Grenada 26.7C 80F 14.0mm

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.7C 86F 3.7mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.7C 86F 3.1mm
Rockley, S Barbados 29.8C 86F 0.3mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 29.2C 85F 4.2mm
Vigie, St Lucia 29.2C 85F 0.8mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.0C 84F trace
Le Lamentin. Martinique 29.2C 85F 1.8mm

VC Bird, Antigua 28.2C 82F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.1C 82F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.2C 81F
Santo Domingo, Dom, Republic 30.9C 87F
Puerto Plata, Dom. Republic 28.0C 82F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.8C 83F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.2C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.5C 87F
Havana, Cuba 29.4C 85F 0.2mm
Key West, Florida 26,7C 80F ( warmest day since Nov 30/10)
Miami, Florida 28.3C 83F
Nassau, Bahamas 27.3C 81F
Hamilton, Bermuda 14.8C 59F 1.0mm

Hato, Curacao 27.3C 81F trace
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.2C 86F 0.6mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 27.5C 82F 0.9mm

Timehri Airport, Guyana 31.7C 89F
Cayenne, French Guiana 30.9C 87F 6.0mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST WED FEB 23 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS FREE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER PUERTO RICO AND
U.S.VI THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INCREASE AT MID LEVELS...AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TOWARD OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Macrocane]

The temps today (February 23) in Central America:
-Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador had warmer than normal lows this morning. Guatemala city had its warmest low of February today.
-Nicaragua and Panama had near normal lows. Costa Rica had the 2nd coldest low of February.
-Belize, Honduras and Guatemala had above normal highs. Guatemala city experienced its warmest high of the month.
-El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama experienced near normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.9°C (37.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.5°C (49.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 13.4°C (56.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.3°C (39.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.2°C (100.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.5°C (68.9°F)

[Macrocane]

Moderate showers developed tonight in the eastern half of El Salvador, they may have produced the highest amount of rainfall since October, I will post some observations tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST THU FEB 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN AND EXTENDING TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION...WILL BUILD FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE FURTHER EAST. LIKEWISE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. IN DOING SO IT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY CREATE A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH COOL AND STABLE AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND PUSH SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG THE SHEAR LINE TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE NORTH AND EAST HALF
OF THE PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECT ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN
AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH QUICKLY PASSING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. STILL NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
IN SITE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS...AND EARLY MORNING FOG PATCHES
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. TJSJ 24/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS FROM SFC TO AROUND 15K
FEET...BECOMING MAINLY WESTERLY ABV WHILE INCRG WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...
BY FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PULSE WILL SPREAD A NORTHERLY SWELL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS COMBIEND WITH THE
INCREASING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THEREFORE... SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES
BEGINNING EARLU FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.PLEASE REFER TO MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL WATES
FORECAST FOR LATEST UPDATES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED IN CHANCES OF WILDFIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ARE AGAIN REMINDED TO SAFELY DISPOSE ALL FLAMMABLE
MATERIALS IN THE PROPER RECEPTACLES....AND REPORT ANY WILDFIRES TO
THE LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS OR THE FIRE DEPARTMENT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 71 83 73 / 10 20 20 40
STT 83 72 84 71 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM AST Friday to 6 AM AST Monday

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1102 AM AST THU FEB 24 2011

...A PULSE OF NORTH SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
INCREASE THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IN COMBINATION
WITH THE NORTH SWELLS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN LOCALLY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS MANY SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

AMZ710-242315-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0100.110225T1000Z-110228T1000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1102 AM AST THU FEB 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO
6 AM AST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM AST MONDAY.

* WINDS AND WAVES: WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS AS WELL AS SEAS OF
6 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST THU FEB 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE LOCAL AIR MASS...SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR A SHEAR LINE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
BEFORE...BRINGING SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD...AS A
PULSE OF NORTH SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND THEN FOR OTHER NEARBY WATERS
BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...IN GENERAL...EXPECT INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING WILDFIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE AGAIN REMINDED TO SAFELY DISPOSE OF ALL
FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THE PROPER RECEPTACLES...AND REPORT ANY
WILDFIRES TO THE LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS OR THE FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 72 81 / 20 40 40 20
STT 72 83 71 83 / 20 40 40 20