2010 Tropical Cyclone Reports

[CrazyC83]

Seems reasonable. The pressure I think might have been below 920mb though (given its large size and trends once Recon arrived), but without Recon it is hard to tell. I definitely agree that it was not a Category 5, which some were speculating afterward - it didn't seem to look like a T7.0 to me and Igor consistently ran below Dvorak once Recon arrived even if T7.0 was valid.

In the weakening phase, it seems the intensities may have been underestimated though as Newfoundland surface data proved. I would have gone 80 kt for the landfall intensity (pressure 948mb) given the final data and the assumption the strongest winds were occuring over water. Likewise, given the Bermuda data, I think all the intensities ahead of Newfoundland were higher than 65 kt as well and the pressures lower than 960mb (or even lower than 950mb).

[cycloneye]

I have been waiting for the one that is left,Tomas,for a long time,to see what was the peak intensity near St Lucia. Let's see if they release it this week.

[chrisjslucia]

I have been waiting for the one that is left,Tomas,for a long time,to see what was the peak intensity near St Lucia. Let's see if they release it this week.

Still not out it seems - do reports usually take this long?

[HURAKAN]

I can tell you that they're working on it. Don't have an idea when it will be released but likely sooner rather than later.

[cycloneye]

NHC released the chart of the tracks for all 19 systems. Still ,the Tomas report has not been released.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2010atlan.shtml

[CrazyC83]

It says (coming soon) on the Tomas PDF. Basically it looks like the track is set but the text and details are not yet finished.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like they classified Tomas as a tropical cyclone a little earlier, judging by that map, right?

[wxman57]

Looks like they classified Tomas as a tropical cyclone a little earlier, judging by that map, right?

Should have been about 24-36 hrs earlier, judging by surface obs and its satellite representation.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like they classified Tomas as a tropical cyclone a little earlier, judging by that map, right?

Should have been about 24-36 hrs earlier, judging by surface obs and its satellite representation.

I agree, which is why I'm glad it seems they're classifying it a bit earlier.

[Metalicwx220]

Hurricane Igor report is up at the first post of thread. The peak intensity was 135 kts. Crazy,do you agree?

I don't know how to convert knots to mph. lol what is 135kts in mph???

[SouthDadeFish]

Hurricane Igor report is up at the first post of thread. The peak intensity was 135 kts. Crazy,do you agree?

I don't know how to convert knots to mph. lol what is 135kts in mph???

Multiply knots by 1.15, so you get 155 mph

[Metalicwx220]

Hurricane Igor report is up at the first post of thread. The peak intensity was 135 kts. Crazy,do you agree?

I don't know how to convert knots to mph. lol what is 135kts in mph???

Multiply knots by 1.15, so you get 155 mph

I believe it was a Category 5.

[SouthDadeFish]

Metalic, that's just below the threshold for cat 5. The strongest cat 4 can be is 155mph. It was really close. Still a very powerful tropical cyclone, and a beauty to watch as a fish storm during its peak.

[cycloneye]

Crazy,they put comming soon,but how soon that would be is the question,as we are still waiting and waiting for that Tomas report.

[CrazyC83]

Crazy,they put comming soon,but how soon that would be is the question,as we are still waiting and waiting for that Tomas report.

Yeah I am wondering, maybe they went back for new data.

Barbados released their report to the WMO on the meeting site, and confirmed wind gusts to 105 mph (sustained about 53 mph) and a pressure of 983mb at the time it crossed the island at 0900Z on October 30 (operationally it was 990mb at the time!).

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/d ... rbados.doc (MS Word document)

I would make some dramatic changes to the intensities around the islands based on those data:

29/1800 - 45 kt / 998mb (as supported by Recon)
30/0000 - 55 kt / 996mb (as supported by Recon)
30/0600 - 70 kt / 988mb (higher than Recon based on later trends and Barbados reports)
30/1200 - 80 kt / 982mb (pressure from Barbados at 0900Z, wind a crude guess using P-W relationships)
30/1800 - 85 kt / 981mb (estimate on land data)
31/0000 - 90 kt / 979mb (estimate on land data and assumption that it weakened at the next Recon flight, peak intensity)
31/0600 - 85 kt / 982mb (as supported by Recon)
31/1200 - 75 kt / 987mb (extrapolation of Recon data)
31/1800 - 65 kt / 994mb (as supported by Recon)

The operational intensities at those points are 35, 50, 60, 65, 65, 80, 85, 80 and 70 respectively. A big change indeed!

[christchurchguy]

The lowest pressures I saw measured by lowest stations were arround 993mb around 5pm so maybe there some errors with the Tomas report. Winds seemed strongest between 6-8 am Barbados time out of the south.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/d ... oc.5.1.doc

Barbados is requesting Recon farther east, saying they were caught off guard by Tomas (they were hit with hurricane conditions only 14 hours after first advisory and couldn't get adequate warning).

IMO it is a fair request, but they should pay the US for base use and operations for those flights when they request them until the US can take over from St. Croix. Stationed at Barbados, they could reach as far as 45W.

Also, the need for secondary backups were mentioned. IMO, the NWS (United States) should be everyone's (except possibly Cuba) secondary backup, since they have many offices that could implement warnings.

[HurricaneBill]

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/documents/Doc.5.1.doc

Barbados is requesting Recon farther east, saying they were caught off guard by Tomas (they were hit with hurricane conditions only 14 hours after first advisory and couldn't get adequate warning).

IMO it is a fair request, but they should pay the US for base use and operations for those flights when they request them until the US can take over from St. Croix. Stationed at Barbados, they could reach as far as 45W.

Also, the need for secondary backups were mentioned. IMO, the NWS (United States) should be everyone's (except possibly Cuba) secondary backup, since they have many offices that could implement warnings.

I remember somebody saying St. Lucia was also caught off guard by Tomas.

[HURAKAN]

Tomas:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL212010_Tomas.pdf

[cycloneye]

85 kts was the maximun intensity. Excerpt from the report.

The estimated maximum intensity of this hurricane, 85 kt, is based on a maximum 10-
min wind observation of 77 kt from Hewanorra Airport in St. Lucia at 1926 UTC 30 October,
adjusted by applying a gust factor of 1.11 to convert from a 10-min average to a maximum 1-min
average (Harper et al. 2009). In addition, there was an SFMR-based surface wind measurement
of 85 kt at 0537 UTC 31 October from the 53WRS.