Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Hi, the rains registered yesterday in El Salvador produced the highest accumulations since mid November though they were not widespread rains as they only occurred in some parts of western El Salvador, the rainfall registered in some stations:

San Andres 26.7 mm/1.05 inches (This is the highest accumulation anywhere in the country since November 17)
Santa Ana 14.2 mm/0.56 inches (This is the highest accumulation on this city since October 1)
Candelaria de la Frontera 8 mm/0.31 inches
Los Naranjos 7 mm/0.28 inches
Acajutla 1 mm/0.04 inches

With this rains some places like Santa Ana and San Andres are already above normal in terms of rainfall as February is the driest month of the year and they only experience an average of 10 mm/0.4 inches or less.

By the way, I started a blog yesterday, it's in Spanish and it has only 2 entries but I will update it every time that an important event occurs. Here's the link: http://tiempoyclimasv.blogspot.com/

Edit: It rained in western El Salvador not eastern

[Macrocane]

Today:
-Belize experienced again above normal maximum and minimum temperatures-
-Guatemala had near normal lows and highs.
-El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua had warmer than normal lows but near normal highs.
-Costa Rica registered cooler than normal lows but warmer than normal highs, in fact San Jose experienced its warmest high this year so far.
-Panama had near normal temperatures, but as an interesting note the station of Boquete registered its coolest minimum temperature for this month but also the warmest maximum.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.9°C (35.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.5°C (49.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 15.6°C (60.1°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.3°C (54.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (87.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.8°C (88.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.4°C (99.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24.2°C (75.6°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Wed-7pmET Thur) for
Thu Feb 24 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.3C 88F 5.5mm (Feb 2011 total 133.3mm adjusted)
Maraval, NW Trinidad 27.3C 81F 0.5mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.1C 84F 1.6mm
Point Salines, Grenada 27.9C 82F 15.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.2C 85F 2.6mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 29.7C 86F 0.3mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.5C 87F 12.3mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 27.9C 82F 1.7mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.2C 85F 7.6mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.1C 82F
VC Bird, Antigua 27.5C 82F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.2C 81F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.8C 82F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.0C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.8C 86F
Havana, Cuba 29.1C 84F
Key West FL 26.7C 80F
Miami, Florida 27.8C 82F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.0C 82F
Hamilton, Bermuda 16.2C 61F 1.3mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 28.1C 82F 8.0mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.2C 86F 14.2mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 28.5C 84F 30.6mm

Cayenne, French Guiana 30.5C 87F trace
Timehri, Guyana 32.0C 90F 1.7mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST FRI FEB 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND FOLLOWING ON SUNDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CUBA WILL FEINT A MOVE TOWARD
THE EAST AND THEN ABRUPTLY RETREAT BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
MID WEEK...ALLOWING A TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND IN
MARCH.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT HAS BULGED THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL A PASSING
TROUGH WEAKENS IT FOR A DAY OR TWO LATE NEXT WEEK. VERY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE FOLLOWING
SATURDAY EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOW SEEN MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH BULGES SOUTH TOWARD THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO BY LATE
MORNING...SHORTLY AFTER IT REACHES THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. IT IS WEAKENING NORTH OF THE USVI BUT MAY BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN REACHES PUERTO RICO. MODELS SHOW PATCHES
OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING BUT THEY ARE NOT CONSISTENTLY REPRESENTED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE LEEWARD PORTION OF THE
ISLAND AS SPECIFICITY MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO ACHIEVE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSING NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THE SHALLOW EXTENT
OF THEIR GROWTH. WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY...ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PASS SUNDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS THAN TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND A
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH BUT MODELS BRING
THROUGH ONLY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS. THE
BREEZY TRADES MAY SLOW CONSIDERABLY DURING THAT WEEKEND
HOWEVER...AND WINDS COULD EVEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 26/22Z. AFT
25/12Z...EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AS
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ ...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK. TJSJ
25/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM
SFC TO AROUND 5K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE INCREASING AT BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER BUOYS AS WINDS
ROSE ABRUPTLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HERALDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS...BUT SWELL
WILL PEAK TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY SEAS WILL BECOME NOTABLY MORE
CHOPPY. SIGNIFICANT SWELL ARE NOT FOUND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SUNDAY...BUT WIND WAVES WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN BOTH
OUR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 81 72 / 20 20 10 20
STT 82 71 83 74 / 20 20 10 20

[Macrocane]

Three erthquakes were registered last night in El Salvador, 1 of them (the strongest and deepest) occurred in the subduction zone and was felt across the whole country the other 2 (weaker but shallower) occured in a fault line northwest of San Salvador and was only felt in the nearby areas. The magnitued were:
-2.2 (local fault line)
-4.2 (subduction zone)
-2.3 (local fault line)

No damages were reported. For mor info about the quakes you can go to this thread El Salvador seismic activity

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST FRI FEB 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS WERE BRIEFED AND LITTLE
ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. AFTER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE DUE TO THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THE AIR WAS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM 71 DEGREES THIS MORNING TO AROUND MID
60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED
EVERY MORNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 15 KTS
DURING THE DAY AND GUSTS OVER 25 KTS. WINDS LOSING GUSTINESS AT
NIGHT BUT REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE CLOUD CVR TODAY...LARGE FIRE DEVELOPED NEAR
GUAMANI NEAR THE GUAYAMA ARROYO COUNTY LINE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY TOMORROW AND NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW...LOW RH...SOIL AND FUEL MOISTURE VALUES. YESTERDAY...A
FIRE WAS DETECTED IN VEGA BAJA SUGGESTING THAT FUELS ACROSS THE
NORTH COAST ARE ALSO BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDLAND
FIRES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 72 82 / 20 0 20 20

[cycloneye]

Look at this submarine (Dont know from which country is) as it transits thru the Panama Canal under a torrential downpour. You can see the Panama Canal operations at the cams on first post of thread.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 7pmET Thur-7pmET Fri)
for Fri Feb 25 2011

Piarco Int. Airport, Trinidad 31.1C 88F trace (Feb 2011 133.3mm)
Maraval, NW Trinidad 28.2C 83F 3.6mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.1C 84F 0.6mm
Point Salines, Grenada 29.5C 85F 1.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 27.7C 82F 0.8mm (Feb 2011 28.6mm)

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 28.6C 84F 4.0mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 28.5C 84F 4.3mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 26.8C 80F 17.1mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 28.5C 84F 1.8mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 28.7C 84F 0.2mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.5C 84F
VC Bird, Antigua 28.1C 82F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F 1.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.8C 86F
Kingston, Jamaica 29.6C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.6C 89F
Havana, Cuba 29.3C 85F
Key West, Florida 25.6C 78F
Miami, Florida 28.9C 84F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.2C 83F
Hamilton, Bermuda 17.7C 64F

Hato Airport, Curacao 27.6C 82F 24.7mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 29.4C 85F 8.0mm
Flamongo Airport, Bonaire 29.1C 84F 2.6mm

Cayenne, French Guiana 30.3C trace
Georgetown, Guyana 28.2C 83F 6.0mm
Timehri Airport, Guyana 30.9C 87F 7.0mm

-justin-

[Macrocane]

-Warmer than normal temperatures are still in place in Belize.
-Warmer than normal minimum temps and near normal maximum occured in Guatemala.
-Warmer than normal lows and cooler than normal highs were registered in El Salvador. San Salvador experienced its warmest low for February so far.
-Honduras had an average day.
-Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama had a little warmer than normal lows and near normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.7°C (49.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.7°C (56.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.2°C (99.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SAT FEB 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS CAUSING FLOW TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST. A BROAD TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TO OUR NORTH UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF OF
A STRONG LOW RETREATING NORTHEAST OFF THE CANADIAN COAST AND
DISSIPATE NORTH OF US THURSDAY WEAKENING LOCAL GRADIENTS. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS CARRYING PATCHY MOISTURE WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE LATEST FRONT PUSHED THE
DEWPOINT IN SAN JUAN AS LOW AS 58 DEGREES AND THE DEWPOINT AT
BUOY 41043 AS LOW AS 55 DEGREES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY. MODELS DO SHOW CONTINUED COOL AND MOIST ADVECTION
FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW THAT WILL BRING MORE PATCHY
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH BEST SHOWER CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. STILL EXISTS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRIER DAY THAN
FRIDAY. MORE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE TREND WILL BE FOR PATCHY SHOWERS
CARRIED BY TRADES THAT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. STILL NO
MAJOR CHANGES ON THE HORIZON CONCERNING THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WIND
FLOW REMAINS FROM THE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
OF 25 KNOTS...MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ...TJSJ...TIST AND TISX.

&&

.MARINE...MOST EXPOSED WATERS WILL SEE SEAS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 7
FEET WITH WINDS OF 18 TO 23 KNOTS AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY. BUT SLACKENING GRADIENTS DUE TO A TROUGH TO THE
NORTH WILL REDUCE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BECOME A LITTLE
EASIER TO NAVIGATE THEREAFTER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 71 82 72 / 0 20 20 40
STT 82 73 84 74 / 10 20 20 20

[tropicana]

‎2pmET UPDATE Sat Feb 26 2011

Portions of the Southern Caribbean are continuing to experience sporadic
showers today:- today's showers have been mainly affecting Grenada, St
Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados and St Lucia to a lesser extent.
Grantley Adams, Barbados has seen 11mm to 2pmAT local time in the past 18
hours (Feb 2011 stands at near 40mm there) , Point Salines in S. Grenada
7mm.
Sunny skies are been reported in Trinidad and in Tobago. Piarco
International Airport in Trinidad has a rain total of 133.3mm this month (
normal 43mm), but no new rain has been recorded in the last 24 hours.

Further north, very dry air has established itself over the Leeward Islands, where dewpoints were running near 60F in St Kitts, and in the upper 50s in Antigua and Puerto Rico today. These kinds of dewpoints are very dry by Caribbean standards and not favorable for any shower activity.


-justin-

[Macrocane]

Yesterday several weak to moderate showers developed over most of El Salvador and this time San Salvador did receive rain for the first time since January 27. The rainfall accumulated in some stations:

San Idelfonso 19 mm/0.75 inches
Las Pilas 9.8 mm/0.39 inches
Santa Ana 6.6 mm/0.26 inches
Perquin 4.6 mm/0.18 inches
San Salvador 3.2 mm/0.13 inches

Finally, here's a picture I took yesterday and you can see how interesting look the dark clouds mixed with the orange colors from the sunset:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST SAT FEB 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT...A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID
NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 15 KTS DURING THE DAY AND GUSTS OVER 25 KTS. WINDS LOSING
GUSTINESS AT NIGHT BUT REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS. MODELS INDICATE LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
CIGS BELOW 030.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRES DETECTED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE IN
VILLALBA...PATILLAS AND ST. CROIX. SUN AND MONDAY WILL SEE STRONGER
WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 16-KT AND GUSTS UP TO 30KT
LIKELY LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. ONLY ELEMENT THAT
COULD DELAY OR PREVENT CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO MIX OUT SUN AND MON MORNINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 82 / 10 10 40 40
STT 72 83 74 84 / 10 10 20 20

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Fri-7pmET Sat) for
Sat Feb 26 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.3C 88F trace (Feb 2011 135.0mm re-adjusted)
Crown Point, Tobago 29.9C 86F 0.4mm
Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 84F 16.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.1C 82F 11.2mm

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 28.0C 82F 3.5mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 28.1C 82F 2.8mm
Vigie, St Lucia 27.6C 82F trace
Melville Hall, Dominica 28.8C 84F 0.9C

Le Lamentin, Martinique 28.5C 84F trace
Golden rock, St Kitts 27.9C 82F
VC Bird, Antigua 28.1C 82F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.6C 86F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.4C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 0.6C 87F
Havana, Cuba 28.7C 84F
Key West Florida 26.7C 80F
Miami, Florida 27.8C 82F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.7C 84F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.0C 68F 10.5mm

Timehri, Guyana 31.9C 89F
Cayenne, French Guiana 31.1C 88F trace

-justin-

[Macrocane]

-Above normal minimum temperatures and near normal maximum were registered in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.
-Nicaragua had near normal lows and below normal highs.
-Costa Rica and Panama experienced near normal lows and above normal highs. Irazu volcano had its warmest high for this month so far.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.0°C (37.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.0°C (50.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.4°C (75.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.6°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.3°C (99.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.9°C (94.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST SUN FEB 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE AREA FROM CUBA TO PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE DOUBLE
JET TO THE EAST WILL ENHANCE THE WEATHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AND OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TO A LESSER EXTENT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL
RETREAT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
LEAVING A RIDGE TRAILING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE BY MID WEEK.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN ITS PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT WILL BE OVERWHELMED BY A MASSIVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUE
UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWED THE LAST FRONTAL
PASSAGE SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THIS HAS CREATED A STRONG INVERSION OF 6
DEGREES CELSIUS FROM 6 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET WHICH ALSO MARKS THE
UPPER EXTENT OF THE MARINE LAYER. THIS STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH
THE LOWER DEW POINTS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS...REACHING AS LOW AS 56
DEGREES IN SAN JUAN THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO GREATLY REDUCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA...NOT WITHSTANDING THE EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND 6500 FEET HERE AND SOUTHWEST OF A LOW
SPINNING ALMOST 1700 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE COOL WEATHER EVEN AS THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE. THE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLACKEN WEDNESDAY
WHEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE LEFT FROM A FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS WEEK DISPLACES THE WEAKENING HIGH TO
OUR NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION OF MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS TO BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WETTER TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD...CAUSED
BY THE EXIT OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND THE TROUGH THAT DANGLES
SOUTH OF IT AND MAY MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE MERIDIONAL
PATTERN IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS BTWN 3KFT AND 6KFT EMBEDDED IN A ENE WIND
FLOW OF 15G25KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...IN THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MONDAY
AND REACH A MINIMUM ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL
INCREASE DUE TO WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW...THEN DECREASE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. WIND WAVES WILL PLAY THE MAJOR ROLE IN THE SEAS FOR THE
TIME BEING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 72 / 30 40 40 20
STT 82 73 84 73 / 10 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Very interesting discussion up there cycloneye, It must it feels nice windy and with cooler temps.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Very interesting discussion up there cycloneye, It must it feels nice windy and with cooler temps.

Yes it does feel that way.It has been this way for almost 2 weeks in San Juan,with nice high temperatures in the low 80's and lows in the low 70's or even in the high 60's.I would like to see this continue all year around,but of course,by late spring going into the summer,the usual warm weather will come.

[Macrocane]

The wetter than normal pattern continues in El Salvador and yesterday some showers developed again in several parts of the country, some of the accumulations registered yesterday:

Perquin 30 mm/1.18 inches (This is the highest amount of rainfall since November 17 in any station of the country).
Nueva Concepcion 18 mm/0.71 inches
Las Pilas 14.4 mm/0.57 inches
Los Naranjos 11.8 mm/0.46 inches
Metapan 3.7 mm/0.15 inches
San Salvador 0.5 mm/0.02 inches