Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

Special Weather Statement

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC123-271945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1246 PM AST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITY
IN PUERTO RICO
SALINAS

...SIGNIFICANT FIRE BURNING NEAR SECTOR EL COCO EN SALINAS...

AT 1233 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ALONG WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE FIRE BURNING NEAR SECTOR COCO
ALONG HIGHWAY 52. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMOKE PLUME WEST SOUTHWEST INTO SANTA
ISABEL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MOTORISTS TRAVELING ON HIGHWAY 52 SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION WHEN DRIVING THROUGH THIS AREA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SUN FEB 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DECK OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERN DUE TO THIS VERY DRY AIR ARE THE WILDFIRES
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. REFER TO FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST A BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN FOR NEXT WEEK...AS A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS DURING THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 18 KTS DURING THE DAY AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS LOSING
GUSTINESS AT NIGHT BUT REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS. MODELS INDICATE
STRATOCU DECK MOVING IN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRES EARLIER APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN CONTROLLED. SEE
LSR FOR DAMAGE REPORT. CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
TOMORROW DUE TO STRONG EAST WINDS 20G30KT AT TIMES THAT WILL DRY
FUELS RAPIDLY. MIN RH VALUES IN THE 35-40% WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIND DRIVEN FIRES AND
SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND SPOTTING. OPEN BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 73 84 73 83 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPS OF THE YEAR REGISTERED TODAY IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS

Today warmer than normal minimum temps and near normal maximum were registered in most of the region. Some places experienced not only the warmest low for the month but the warmest of the year so far. The observations:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F) Warmest of the year
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.3°C (36.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.6°C (67.3°F) Second warmest this month.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.9°C (55.2°F) Warmest of the year.
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.4°C (74.1°F) Warmest of the year.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F) Warmest of the year.
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F) Warmest of the year
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.6°C (40.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.7°C (58.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.3°C (99.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 24.6°C (76.3°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.8°C (51.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.The weather keeps mainly with fresh NE winds.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST MON FEB 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE FA
WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CUBA/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AS POLAR TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS
WITH LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS MOVING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. AS A
RESULT...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA WITH ONLY A FEW
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ALONG WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY
DURING MORNING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEATHER WILL CHANGE TO WETTER PATTERN AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
REGION. ASSUMING THIS SCENARIO HOLDS...WOULD EXPECT A SHARP
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS TIST...TKPK AND TNCM IN PASSING SHOWERS. CIGS AROUND 6 KFT
WITH STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND ENE WINDS UP TO 15G25KT EXPECTED THROUGH
28/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 8
FEET TODAY. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL BUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND DRY SOILS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. OPEN BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 83 72 / 40 30 30 10
STT 83 72 84 72 / 20 30 30 10

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 7pmET Sat-7pmET Sun) for
Sun Feb 27 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 28.9C 84F 10.5mm (Feb 2011 now 145.5mm)
Maraval, NW Trinidad 25.4C 78F 8.9mm (Feb 2011 82.2mm)
Crown Point, Tobago 29.0C 84F 5.2mm
Point Salines, Grenada 28.4C 83F 2.2mm
Grantley Adams, Barb ados 28.3C 83F 2.0mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 28.7C 84F
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.1C 84F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 28.4C 83F

Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.0C 84F trace
VC Bird, Antigua 27.5C 82F 0.3mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.1C 86F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.9C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.4C 86F
Havana, Cuba 29.9C 86F
Miami, Florida 28.3C 83F
Nassau, Bahamas 27.8C 82F 1.3mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.1C 70F

Hato, Curacao 27.2C 81F 15.3mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 28.7C 84F 16.0mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 26.5C 80F 28.0mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST MON FEB 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS ERN NOAM OVER THE NEXT
SVRL DAYS AND EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH OVR THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WITH TRADES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRATOCU DECK LIKELY TO MOVE IN AGAIN TONIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN RATHER BRISK FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH ONLY ISOLD SHRA
ACTIVITY. WINDS SLACKEN SUBSTANTIALY WED AND BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCU TO FORM AND MOVE
INLAND. THINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THU WITH TRADE WIND
INVERSION REMAINING STRONG WITH ONLY ISOLD SHRA ACTIVITY.

TROUGH PATTERN DEEPENS ACROSS ERN NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET
MAXIMA TO MOVE ALONG 20N ON FRI. SLACKENING TRADES AND DEEPENING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FRI AND SAT FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF THE 12Z GFES NOW SHOW BULK
OF RAINFALL OVR THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
BULK OF THE RAIN OVER PR WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS STILL NOT
AVAILABLE AS OF THIS WRITING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...
TKPK AND TNCM IN LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STRATOCU DECK AND ENE WINDS UP TO 15G25KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...6-8 FT SEAS IN MAINLY ENE WIND WAVES THROUGH TOMORROW.
WINDS SLACKEN WED AND THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SEAS 5 FT
OR LESS WED-FRI.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TWO FIRES REMAIN ACTIVE ATTM ONE OVER GUAYAMA AND
ANOTHER IN SANTA ISABEL BUT NOT BURNING AS INTENSE AS THEY WERE EARLIER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FIRE CONTROL DIFFICULT THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE
WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THINGS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH WED WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH
RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THINGS BEGIN
TO MOISTEN UP THU WITH GOOD CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.



.CLIMATE...ASSUMING NO MORE RAINFALL FALLS AT THE CHRISTIANSTED
ARPT AT ST CROIX FEB 2011 WILL END AS THE EIGHT DRIEST FEB ON
RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF ONLY 0.73 INCHES. 2011 ALSO REPRESENTS THE
SECOND DRIEST TO A START TO A YEAR ON RECORD WITH ONLY 1.22 INCHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 71 82 / 20 20 10 10
STT 72 83 72 83 / 20 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

Yesterday some showers developed in the northern mountains of the country near the border with Honduras the rest of the country was pretty dry, anyways the showers that did developed were heavy in some locations. The rainfall registered in a few stations:

La Palma 87.2 mm/3.43 inches, This is the highest rainfall in the country since September 29 when 221.8 mm/8.73 inches were registered in Los Andes.
Montecristo 50.6 mm/1.99 inches
Las Pilas 10.6/0.42 inches
Perquin 6 mm/0.24 inches

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Sun-7pmET Mon) for
Mon Feb 28 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.7C 89F (Feb 2011 145.5mm)
Maraval, NW Trinidad 28.8C 83F
Crown Point, Tobago 29.4C 85F
Point Salines, Grenada 29.1C 84F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.3C 83F (Feb 2011 41.9mm)
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.2C 85F

Hewannora, St Lucia 28.4C 83F trace
Melville Hall, Dominica 28.8C 84F 0.4mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 27.1C 81F 7.7mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.8C 82F 0.2mm
West End, Anguilla 28.2C 83F
VC Bird, Antigua 27.5C 82F 0.5mm
San Juan Puerto Rico 28.3C 83F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.2C 86F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.0C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.3C 88F
Havana, Cuba 29.5C 85F
Key West, Florida 26.7C 80F
Miami, Florida 28.3C 83F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.5C 84F
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.4C 70F

Hato Airport, Cruacao 28.3C 83F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.2C 86F 0.4mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 29.2C 85F 0.8mm

Timehri, Guyana 26.0C 79F 45.0mm ( to 2pmlocal)
Cayenne, French Guiana 30.7C 87F 2.0mm

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Warmer than normal minimum temperatures were registered again this morning in Central America and near normal maximum temps were registered this afternoon.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F) Warmest low of the year.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.9°C (49.8°F) Warmest low of the year.
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F) Warmest low of the year.
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.3°C (54.1°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F).
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.6°C (58.3°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.1°C (37.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.8°F) Second warmest of the year.
Boquete, Panama 15.8°C (60.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 30.1°C (86.2°F) Warmest high of the year.
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.3°C (100.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 25.4°C (77.7°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.0°C (53.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.1°C (93.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.4°C (70.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST TUE MAR 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
LATER IN THE WEEK...AS AN INDUCED TROUGH APPROACHES TO THE LOCAL
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT
THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
AS THIS OCCURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND A VEERING TO THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
A COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN OVER WARM WATERS FAVORS TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING MORNING
HOURS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOCUS ON THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEN...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST BY
THE MODELS LATER IN THE WEEK...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES
PUERTO RICO FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROVIDES
VENTILATION ALOFT TO FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TKPK AND TNCM IN LOW CIGS AND A FEW
SHOWERS. ENE WINDS UP TO 15G25KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH
01/22Z. HIGH PRES SHIFTING TO THE EAST WILL BRING MORE EASTERLY
WINDS AND CONTINUE SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER WITH SOME CIGS 040-060.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS PRODUCING ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SEAS
WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
HIGHEST IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DRY SOILS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT IS OVER THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND
THUS THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED. OUTDOOR BURNING
IS NOT RECOMMENDED. THINGS BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 72 / 20 20 20 10
STT 83 71 83 72 / 40 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

A more wetter pattern will arrive by thursday and going thru next weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE MAR 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROF PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC OVR THE NEX FEW DAYS AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL WX PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED THRU THU BUT
DIMINISHING TRADES OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD TO
SCT SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS SW PR. MOISTURE INCREASES
RAPIDLY THU AND REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPENING TROF
SHOULD WEAKEN TRADE WIND INVERSION SUFFICIENTLY BY FRI AFTERNOON
TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM. WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
SEE BENEFICIAL RAINS OVR THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW BULK OF THE RAIN
AFFECTING THE USVI AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 48 HRS WITH NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN NEXT TWO DAYS AS TRADES
DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD AGAIN THU NIGHT IN NORTH SWELLS AND EAST
GENERATED WIND WAVES. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DIMINISHING WINDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS BUT THINGS WILL STILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THU WILL SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU THE DAY WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY AND SCT SHALLOW CONVECTION IN SW
PR. WEEKEND SHOULD SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GOOD CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINS MOST PLACES.


&&

.CLIMATE...THROUGH FEB 2011 ONLY 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN
AT THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT IN ST. CROIX. THIS REPRESENTS THE
SECOND DRIEST START TO A YEAR ONLY BEHIND 1983 WHEN 1.20 INCHES
WERE RECORDED. FEB 2011 WAS ALSO THE EIGHT DRIEST FEB ON RECORD
WITH ONLY 0.73 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 83 / 20 20 10 10
STT 72 83 71 82 / 20 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

Hi! I've updated my blog with new entries, they're mostly about the temps registered in February in El Salvador and Central America, they're in Spanish but you can use a translator if you want:

Clima en El Salvador durante Febrero 2011

Clima en Centroamérica durante Febrero 2011

Later today I will post the temps regsitered today in the region but I can tell you that today has been the hottest day of the year in most of El Salvador.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 7pmET Mon-7pmET Tues) for
Tue Mar 01 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.6C 89F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 28.4C 83F 0.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 28.3C 83F trace

Point Salines, Grenada 29.1C 84F 0.3mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.7C 84F 1.5mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 29.7C 86F

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.4C 85F 0.3mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 28.6C 84F trace
Le Lamentin, Martinique 27.5C 82F 5.8mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 28.6C 84F 0.8mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.9C 84F 0.2mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.2C 83F 3.1mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.8C 84F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 29.8C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.2C 88F
Havana, Cuba 30.2C 86F
Key West, Florida 26.7C 80F
Marathon, Florida 30.0C 86F
Miami, Florida 31.1C 88F **record high**
Nassau, Bahamas 29.6C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.6C 71F

Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.0C 86F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

HOTTEST MAXIMUM TEMP OF THE YEAR IN CENTRAL AMERICA REGISTERED TODAY

There has been a change in the pattern today as a high pressure is now dominating the region and is producing northerly winds across Central America, it is possible that minimum temps will drop a little on the next few days as clear nights are expected.

By the way, it's important to mention that we're beggining the hottest period of Central America's climate, usually the warmest highs of the year are experienced in March and April and the warmest lows occur in April and May, the only country that does not follow these rules is Belize because its hottest temps occur in July and August. It's because of the upcoming warm temps that I will highlight in red the temps equal or above 35°C (95°F) and not the temps above 90°F as I previously did.

Now the obervations:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.4°C (52.5°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F).
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.2°C (36.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.2°C (59.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.3°C (91.9°F) Warmest high of the year in this city.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.5°C (103.1°F) Hottest temp of the year in Central America.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F) Warmest high of the year in this city.
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.1°C (44.8°F) What a contrast with the other locations.
Panama city, Panama 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.3°C (64.9°F)

[cycloneye]

San Miguel, El Salvador 39.5°C (103.1°F) Hottest temp of the year in Central America.

Wow Macrocane,that is very hot for the first day of March. I think that the great weather in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands in terms of the cool temperatures caused by the fresh NE winds will end very soon as the weeks go by.

[Macrocane]

Yeah is pretty hot, last year San Miguel reached 39°C until the 3rd week of March, let's see if it stays a little cooler on the next few days or gets warmer. At least the minimum temps may get cooler with these northerly winds. I agree with you that it's just a question of time for changes in the patterns as the spring is getting closer.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert has been requiered for Guadeloupe due to a risk of strong showers/tstorms givenour pro mets of MeteoFrance Guadeloupe http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php (then click on Guadeloupe).

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED MAR 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY WITH
THE EASTERLIES DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON
SHORE MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF
AN INCH. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING ANOTHER GAP OF DRIER AIR MASS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE LOCAL FORECAST ARE LIMITING THIS CLOUD AND THE SHOWERS COVERAGE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UNSTABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AS WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE NEXT SWELL
EVENT IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AS A MODERATE PERIOD SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 73 / 20 10 10 20
STT 83 70 83 73 / 20 10 10 30

[Macrocane]

Hi! Four earthquakes have occurred on the last 24 hours in El Salvador all of them in the subduction zone but no damages have been reported, the magnotudes have been: 4.1, 3.5, 3.5 and 3.6. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2119199#p2119199

[Gustywind]

Hi! Four earthquakes have occurred on the last 24 hours in El Salvador all of them in the subduction zone but no damages have been reported, the magnotudes have been: 4.1, 3.5, 3.5 and 3.6. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2119199#p2119199

Always impressive but hopefully no damages . Be aware as usual Macrocane, keep us informed.