Will Ignacio be the first hurricane of the EPAC?

[cycloneye]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1505.shtml?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

It has a chance as it is small and it can develop rapidly but it will be a close call to see if it will be the first cane at that basin.

[Colin]

Looks intense...will be interesting to watch over the next few days! :o

[OtherHD]

It looks as if an eye may be trying to form...I think Ignacio could make it to cane status...

If you want to see what I think could be the beginnings of an eye, use http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html and do a medium zoom loop.

[Stormsfury]

IMO, it looks like an overshooting top casting a shadow ... (The link above gave me a cannot find server message)

SF

[chadtm80]

Here you go SF.. Here are the shots.. Also path for Ignacio

[cycloneye]

It is on it's way to be the first cane of EPAC indeed finnally.

[OtherHD]

The eye is becoming clearer...and NHC issues special advisory...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1740.shtml?

[weatherlover427]

Now that was some rapid intensification if ever I saw it!! :o Wonder if any remnants from this will head my way in a few days... :o .

[Stormsfury]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

WOW!. I go to sleep for a couple of hours and BLAM! ... Though the last frame shows the refilling, that's a very compact system which is subject to these kind of changes.

SF

[weatherlover427]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003

...IGNACIO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE ON THE WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO SANTA FE AND FROM SAN EVARISTO TO LA PAZ.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

IGNACIO IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OR PASS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ARE STRONGLY CAUTIONED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE LANDFALL OF THE CENTER...SINCE THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN...AND BECAUSE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...21.9 N...108.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[weatherlover427]

Now my AFD looks interesting :

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH W OF THE MOUNTAINS MON IN A MORE ELY FLOW. THIS FLOW WEAKENS TUE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ENTIRE CWFA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH LATE MON WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING SO MUCH CLOUD COVER THAT IT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A LITTLE WARMER IN MOST AREAS SAT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. MAX TEMPS ON MON AND TUE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH COOLING...MOSTLY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED FOR JUST PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

LONGER RANGE PROGS INDICATE A GENERAL DRYING TREND WITH MORE SWLY WINDS ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WED AFTERNOON WITH A DECREASING CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EXTENDED PROGS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.