Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST WED MAR 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROF PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC SOUTH INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD AT MID
LEVELS NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND INVERSION THAT WAS PRESENT OVR THE PAST
SVRL DAYS HAS LIFTED/WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW UP TO 600
MB. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVR
THE NEXT 24-72 HRS WITH A STRONG SUBTRROPICAL JET STREAK PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND. THE IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS
ALONG WITH BUILDING MID-UPPER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN
GREATER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN THE FRI-SAT TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RISING UP TO 1.5
INCHES INSTEAD OF THE 1.8-1.9 INCHES OF SVRL DAYS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS BUT
THE PROSPECTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD STILL OCCUR OVR THE USVI AND LEEWARDS
ISLANDS WHO NEED THE RAIN THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... FEW LOW LEVEL CLDS
AND PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EN ROUTE BTW THE NRN
LEEWARDS AND ERN PR FM 02/19Z-03/12Z. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. NORTH SWELLS WILL BUILD
THU NIGHT INCREASING SEAS TO THE 5-7 FT RANGE. SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE FIRE IN SALINAS PER OFFICIAL REPORTS AND
HOTSPOTS ON 3.9 IMAGERY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE AIR. HOWEVER...NEAR DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL
SUGGEST A RISK OF WILDFIRES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 72 82 / 10 10 20 20
STT 71 82 72 82 / 10 10 30 30

[Gustywind]

Rain showers arefalling nicely here since 1 hour. Unstelled conditions should continue on Guadeloupe at least Saturday given Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Let's hope that not...
I will keep you informed if something happens.

[Macrocane]

Rain showers arefalling nicely here since 1 hour. Unstelled conditions should continue on Guadeloupe at least Saturday given Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Let's hope that not...
I will keep you informed if something happens.

Hopefully nothing bad will happen and it won't be anything more than beneficial rain

[Macrocane]

-Northerly winds have been blowing today across Central America and cooler minimum temperatures have been registered in Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador.
-Slightly cooler maximum temps were experienced today in El Salvador so thanfully it was not as warm as yesterday.
-Honduras had warmer minimum temps than yesterday but cooler maximum.
-Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama had temperatures very similar to yesterday.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.9°C (44.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.3°C (52.3°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F).
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 1.9°C (35.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.7°C (101.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 24.5°C (76.1°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.2°C (54.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)

Max Wind Gusts
Belize city, Belize 23 km/h (14 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 41 km/h (26 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31 km/h (19 mph)
Nueva Ocotepeque, Honduras 46 km/h (29 mph)
Esteli, Nicaragua 47 km/h (29 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 45 km/h (28 mph)
Panama city, Panama 39 km/h (24 mph)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 7pmET Tues-7pmET Wed) for
Wed Mar 02 2011

Piarco Int. Airport, Trinidad 31.0C 88F trace ( Low 19.7C 67.5F)
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.2C 85F 0.3mm (low 20.6C 69F)
Crown Point, Tobago 29.6C 85F 4.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 84F 0.3mm (Low 21.0C 70F)
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.0C 84F 1.7mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.5C 85F 4.1mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 29.5C 85F 0.4mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 28.3C 83F 20.6mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 27.0C 81F 4.5mm

LeLamentin, Martinique 29.3C 85F 4.6mm
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 26.8C 80F 18.2mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.9C 84F 2.2mm
VC Bird, Antigua 26.9C 80F 1.6mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F 1.3mm
St Thomas, VI 27.2C 81F
St Croix, VI 28.3C 83F 6.1mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.1C 84F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.0C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.3C 88F
Havana, Cuba 28.1C 83F 0.4mm (Low 14.7C 59F)
Key West, Florida 26.7C 80F
Marathon , Florida 26.3C 79F 1.8mm
Miami, Florida 27.2C 81F 0.3mm
Nassau, Bahamas 26.0C 79F 0.2mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 16.7C 62F 11.7mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 28.0C 82F trace
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 29.9C 86F 4.0mm

-justin-

[Gustywind]

Rain showers arefalling nicely here since 1 hour. Unstelled conditions should continue on Guadeloupe at least Saturday given Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Let's hope that not...
I will keep you informed if something happens.

Hopefully nothing bad will happen and it won't be anything more than beneficial rain

Thanks my friend. You're definitely right, i hope that only for our plants, trees

[tropicana]

Rain showers arefalling nicely here since 1 hour. Unstelled conditions should continue on Guadeloupe at least Saturday given Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Let's hope that not...
I will keep you informed if something happens.

Hopefully nothing bad will happen and it won't be anything more than beneficial rain

Thanks my friend. You're definitely right, i hope that only for our plants, trees

rain in March is usually a good thing for the Caribbean, since March is statistically the driest month of the year generally region-wide

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Increasing chances of rain today as a trough moves nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST THU MAR 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROF PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD AT MID
LEVELS NEXT WEEK

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER LAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DOPPLER RADAR ONLY REPORTED ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO GENERATE
AN INCREASE ON CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO MODERATE WINDS AND
UNSTABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCED THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
SIMILAR AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. BOTH MODELS...WW3
AND SWAN... CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERLY SWELL ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 73 / 20 20 20 30
STT 83 71 83 73 / 10 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Forecasters will make preparedness tour in Caribbean and Mexico

This is an important event that NOAA does every year to let know the people where they will stop,to prepare for the upcomming season and to the public to visit the plane.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... _chat.html

Locations and times for public tours are listed below (all times are local):

•Monday, March 21st: San Jose del Cabo, Mexico, 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.
•Tuesday, March 22nd: Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Mexico, 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.
•Wednesday, March 23rd: Grand Cayman Island, 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.
•Thursday, March 24th: Curacao, Netherlands Antilles, 12:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.
•Friday, March 25th: St. Lucia, 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.
•Saturday, March 26th: Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico, 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

A more wet few days ahead for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST THU MAR 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET MAX TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
MOVE ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
HELP DESTABILIZE THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...WEAKLY INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
HELP TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE INFLOW OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND AT LEAST
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY DRY AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...LEAD TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A MORE EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THE ACCOMPANYING LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW CROSSING THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS...COMBINED WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH AND ARRIVAL OF SUBTROPICAL
JET MAX...WILL ENHANCE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME
DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND IN ISOLATED SPOTS ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST
TREND WHICH ALREADY HAD SUFFICIENTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND POP ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY
SUNDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE VI THROUGH ABOUT 03/21Z. AFT 03/21Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL PR AND VI TAF SITES. ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK...MVFR
CONDS AND LOW CIGS ANTICIPATED IN PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 82 / 20 20 30 30
STT 72 82 73 83 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 PM AST THU MAR 3 2011

PRC043-123-133-149-032330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0004.110303T2024Z-110303T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-VILLALBA PR-SALINAS PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-
424 PM AST THU MAR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...VILLALBA...SALINAS AND SANTA ISABEL

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 424 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IS
DETECTING A PERSISTENT AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS
COAMO...VILLALBA...SALINAS...AND SANTA ISABEL. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS IS EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL 715 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6649 1817 6635 1797 6621 1795 6636

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Macrocane]

Hi! This morning most of Central America had a very cool morning, in fact some places experienced their coldest temps in months and a few of the highest places (Quetzaltenango and Irazu volcano) had a freeze although in the afternoon the temperatures were pretty warm but not as warm as in previous days.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -0.9°C (30.4°F) Coldest temp in Central America since January 31.
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.3°C (61.3°F) Coldest temp in San Salvador since January 31.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.1°C (50.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F).
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jintoega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica -0.1°C (31.8°F) Coldest temp of the year in Costa Rica.
Panama city, Panama 21.4°C (70.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.3C (90.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.1°C (100.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.4°C (90.3°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 7pmET Wed-7pmET Thurs) for
Thur March 3 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.5C 89F 0.5mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.3C 88F 0.5mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.5C 85F
Point Salines, Grenada 28.0C 82F 2.5mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.0C 84F 0.1mm

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.5C 87F 7.6mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 29.9C 86F 0.6mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.4C 85F 17.6mm
Canefield Arpt, Dominica 29.0C 84F 3.6mm (low 19.9C 68F)

LeLamentin, Martinique 30.0C 86F 0.8mm
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 25.0C 77F 26.0m

VC Bird, Antigua 26.1C 79F 14.0mm (Low 19.9C 68F)
Golden Rock, St Kitts 26.8C 80F 35.5mm (low 20.1C 68F)

West End, Anguilla 27.1C 81F 4.1mm
St Croix, VI 26.7C 80F 14.7mm (low 20.0C 68F)
St Thomas, VI 26.7C 80F 4.0mm (low 20.6C 69F)
Julianna, St Maarten 27.1C 81F 6.5mm
Roosevelt, St Eustatius 27.2C 81F (low 20.8C 69F)
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F Low 20.6C 69F)

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.7C 82F 17.8mm *most rain in quite a while*
Kingston, Jamaica 29.6C 86F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.5C 87F

Havana, Cuba 28.5C 84F Low 17.6C 64F)
Key West, Florida 25.6C 78F
Miami, Florida 26.1C 79F
Nassau, Bahamas 25.3C 77F Low 20.1C 68F)
Hamilton, Bermuda 17.7C 64F trace

Hato Airport, Curacao 27.9C 82F 5.6mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.4C 86F 1.6mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 29.3C 85F 0.1mm

Timehri Airport, Guyana 29.2C 85F 3.0mm
Cayenne, French Guiana 25.6C 78F 49.0mm (Thunderstorms)

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY TODAY...BEFORE PASSING
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED 250 MB
DIVERGENT JET MAX WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER JET THEN LINGERING OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THE SAME TIME...INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWEST TOWARD AND THEN INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT
IN A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY
PERSISTENT OR DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...SHOULD KEEP AREAL COVERAGE
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. FOR SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LIFTING OUT...BUT LINGERING UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY SHOULD WORK
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO AGAIN PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS BUT WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 04/18Z THROUGH 04/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTH SWELLS...WITH THESE
SWELLS THEN LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS SOME OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE AND
NEAR SHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT WETTING RAINS OCCURRED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...
AND ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AND OTHER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...THE OVERALL WILD FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. THEREFORE...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED
TO CONTINUE TO DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THEIR PROPER
RECEPTACLES AND REPORT ANY SMOKE OR FIRE SIGHTINGS TO THE LOCAL
FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 83 74 / 20 30 30 40
STT 83 72 84 73 / 30 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Spring Hydrologic Outlook for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
807 AM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
INDICATES NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL...

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS A SIMILAR
BIAS AS THE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL WITH MOST LOCATIONS RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 25 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE WITH A
COUPLE OF LOCALIZED OUTLIERS OF BELOW 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THERE
IS NO DISTINCT PATTERN BASED ON THE GEOGRAPHIC LOCATIONS OF THE
GAGES.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS...THE YEAR TO DATE TOTALS ARE RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS. FOR PUERTO RICO...THE TOTALS
ARE MOSTLY IN THE 60 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT. THE TOTALS
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH SAINT
CROIX BEING THE DRIEST OF THE THREE ISLANDS. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT
STATISTICALLY...2011 REPRESENTS THE RECORD DRIEST START TO THE
YEAR AT CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT IN SAINT CROIX WITH ONLY 1.22 INCHES
REPORTED. THESE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOLLOW A RECORD
BREAKING 2010 WHICH WAS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR SAN JUAN
PR...THE SECOND WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR CHARLOTTE AMALIE IN
SAINT THOMAS AND THE SEVENTH WETTEST YEAR OF RECORD FOR
CHRISTIANSTED IN SAINT CROIX.

SOIL MOISTURE...
THIS IS THE END OF THE DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...SO DRY SOILS ARE EXPECTED...AND GIVEN A NORMAL SPRING
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD...THE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS USUALLY IMPROVE
WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL IN APRIL AND MAY. NONE OF OUR REGIONS
CURRENTLY HAVE ANY DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS IN THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. AS EXPECTED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...THE FIRE WEATHER
SEASON IS IN FULL SWING...ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION HAS BEEN
GENERALLY UNDER CONTROL BY FIREFIGHTERS...WELL OVER 500 FIRES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THIS FIRE SEASON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE...CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES...DRIEST SOILS AND THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE CONCENTRATED.

RESERVOIRS...
BASED ON USGS GAGING SITES...A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW THAT CURRENT LEVELS DO NOT
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LAGO PATILLAS IS
CURRENTLY AT 220.59 FEET ... NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222 FEET.
LAGO LOIZA IS CURRENTLY 133.26 FEET ... NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL
IS 132.00 AND LAGO LA PLATA IS CURRENTLY 169.65 ... NORMAL OPERATIONAL
LEVEL IS 155. OVERALL...MOST OF THE LAKES ARE CLOSE TO THEIR NORMAL
OPERATIONAL LEVELS.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF MARCH WHICH IS THE LAST MONTH OF THE DRY SEASON
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REBOUND DURING THE OF APRIL WHICH IS
GENERALLY THE TRANSITIONAL MONTH TO THE WET SEASON. THE EXTENT AND
INTENSITY OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BEST DETERMINE THE FLOOD CATEGORIES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW
NORMAL.

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 PM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

PRC039-101-042230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0006.110304T2026Z-110304T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-MOROVIS PR-
426 PM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES AND MOROVIS

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 423 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
ESPECIALLY OVER CIALES AND MOROVIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO ONE
INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 6:30 PM. EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... ROADS AND
ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1833 6659 1837 6640 1833 6636 1829 6637
1823 6649 1822 6653

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD AND SPREAD EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MODERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH BASE STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES... WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARDS THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET MAX CONTINUES TO PULL JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTILATION
TO DESTABILIZE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND SATURDAY ALSO DEPENDENT ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA
LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHWARDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTILATION FOR CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT MAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UPPER AIR SOUNDING REMAINED RELATIVELY
DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION...AND STILL
NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SIGHT. THEREFORE...DRIVING
FORCE WILL LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL AND DIURNAL
INDUCED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...SO STEERING AND
MOTIONS OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY LINGER UNTIL SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SOME MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF BUT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS REST OF TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE VI THROUGH
ABOUT 04/21Z. AFT 04/21Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH ANTICIPATED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 83 / 30 30 30 30
STT 72 82 73 83 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 PM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

PRC001-073-081-093-141-042330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0008.110304T2128Z-110304T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MARICAO PR-UTUADO PR-LARES PR-
528 PM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...UTUADO AND LARES

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 525 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAD FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF ADJUNTAS...UTUADO AND LARES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1816 6690 1829 6691 1830 6658 1821 6654
1818 6654 1816 6655

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 PM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

PRC009-019-035-041-043-045-047-107-042215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0007.110304T2120Z-110304T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-AIBONITO PR-
BARRANQUITAS PR-OROCOVIS PR-
520 PM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS BEEN EXTENDED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COROZAL...COMERIO...AIBONITO...
BARRANQUITAS AND OROCOVIS

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 513 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE PERSISTENT
RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED ACROSS OROCOVIS. AS A
RESULT...THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN THROUGH 6:15 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1823 6649 1830 6634 1817 6615 1808 6625

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------