Caribbean - Central America Weather

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Thur-7pmET Fri) for
Fri Mar 4 2011

Piarco Int. Airport, Trinidad 31.5C 89F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.6C 85F 8.1mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.3C 86F

Point Salines, Grenada 29.5C 85F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.2C 85F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.5C 85F
Hewannora, St Lucia 29.5C 85F 0.3mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.2C 85F
Canefield Airport, Dominica 29.4C 85F

LeLamentin, Martinique 30.1C 86F 0.4mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.6C 84F 4.9mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.0C 82F 0.9mm

St Thomas, VI 26.3C 79F
St Croix, VI 28.9C 84F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.3C 83F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.1C 83F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.0C 86F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.6C 87F
Havana, Cuba 28.0C 82F
Key West, Florida 25.6C 78F
Miami, Florida 26.3C 79F
Nassau, Bahamas 24.7C 77F
Hamilton, Bermuda 16.2C 61F 0.6mm

Hato, Curacao 27.9C 82F 0.1mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.5C 87F
Flamingo, Bonaire 29.2C 85F

Cayenne, French Guiana 30.6C 87F 24.0mm
Timehri, Guyana 30.0C 86F 3.0mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
917 PM AST FRI MAR 4 2011

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE
ISSUED FOR MUNICIPALITIES ACROSS THOSE SECTORS OF THE ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION ENHANCED BY A JET MAXIMA JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF
THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING THEREAFTER. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LIGHT TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. AN INCREASE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER EAST...NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...AND TJPS AND ON ROUTE BTW THE NRN LEEWARDS
AND ERN PR FM 05/05Z-05/14Z.

[Macrocane]

JANUARY-LIKE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AMERICA

Cool minimum temperatures were registered yesterday in the region, but today they were even colder in most of the places, some locations hadn't been that cold since early January!! on the other hand the maximum temperatures were warm as it's normal for this month though in El Salvador they weren't as warm as in previous days.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12°C (54°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.3°C (32.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.8°C (60.4°F) Coldest since January 9.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.2°C (46.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F).
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F) Coldest since January 21.
La Esperanza, Honduras 6°C (43°F) Coldest since January 8.
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jintoega, Nicaragua 15°C (59°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.3°C (59.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.6°C (36.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.5°C (99.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.1°C (79.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST SAT MAR 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND
SPREAD EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. A
SUBTROPICAL JET MAX CONTINUES TO PULL JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
TODAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTILATION TO DESTABILIZE
LOCAL ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS REPORTED.

EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SUBTROPICAL JET MAX NOW LOCATED OVER
THE LOCAL REGION WILL ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND CONDITIONS WILL
GENERATE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS...THEREFORE INCREASING THE RAINFALL
VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 05/18Z WITH VCSH
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 05/18-05/23Z AT TJBQ...TJMZ....AND
POSSIBLE TJPS IN SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...THE WW3 IS RUNNING WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING...THEREFORE DROPED ALL SCA FOR ALL
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 30 30 30 30
STT 83 72 83 72 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1242 PM AST SAT MAR 5 2011

PRC147-051845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0010.110305T1642Z-110305T1845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VIEQUES PR-
1242 PM AST SAT MAR 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
VIEQUES

* UNTIL 245 PM AST

* AT 1241 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST COASTAL PLAINS OF VIEQUES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1813 6557 1815 6545 1809 6543 1808 6557

$$

SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SAT MAR 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET
MAXIMUM CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHWARDS...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AS A RESULT A GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES AS WELL AS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RULED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE THE RESULT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMUM. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION IN THE
LOCAL ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A
WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MAINTAINS A
FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...GENERATING SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND THEREFORE INCREASING THE RAINFALL VALUES. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE 9 PM AST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMUM WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL NORTHWARDS...MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AS A RESULT A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...
EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH A FEW
LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF PR/THE VI...AND LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHWRS OVER TIST AND TNCM. SHWRS OVER LAND WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06/02Z...ISOLD TSTMS TIL 05/22Z.
EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT COASTAL AIRPORTS. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET
AND REACH 70-90 KNOTS BY 30 THOUSAND FEET.


&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 82 / 30 30 30 30
STT 72 82 73 83 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

UNSEASONABLY COLD MINIMUM TEMPS PERSIST IN MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA

January-like lows were registered again this morning in most of Central America and in some places they got even colder than in the previous days just when it seemed impossible, only in Belize the lows were above average and in Panama they were near normal. The highs were near normal in the region only in El Salvador they were a little cooler than notmal.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12°C (54°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.0°C (32.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.6°C (60.1°F) Coldest since January 9.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.4°C (45.3°F) Coldest since February 7.
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.7°C (63.9°F) Coldest since February 3.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 10°C (50°F) Coldest of the year in Tegucigalpa.
La Esperanza, Honduras 7°C (45°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jintoega, Nicaragua 15°C (59°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.8°C (58.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.6°C (36.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.7°C (71.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.1°C (98.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE LOCAL REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER TROF EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THESE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.

ALTHOUGH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
MONDAY...ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ENHANCEMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06/18Z WITH VCSH AT
TNCM...TKPK...TIST...AND TJSJ. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06/18-06/23Z AT
TJBQ...TJMZ....AND POSSIBLE TJPS IN SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL SHIFT
TO A MORE NE DIRECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 82 73 / 20 30 30 30
STT 82 71 82 71 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST SUN MAR 6 2011

PRC043-075-149-062045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0011.110306T1839Z-110306T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-VILLALBA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-
239 PM AST SUN MAR 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...VILLALBA AND JUANA DIAZ

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 238 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...
THROUGH AT LEAST THOUGH 4:45 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1799 6645 1810 6655 1816 6648 1809 6632

$$

MARTINEZ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST
OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A JET MAXIMUM WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
DE-AMPLIFY BY TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH ON SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE 53-49
WEST MERIDIAN THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPES OVER
BOTH SIDES OF IT...EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK TWIN HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE IS
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL SLOWLY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. MODELS SHOW
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AROUND THE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DESCENDING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SHALLOW CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF PUERTO
RICO AND MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK OVER THE USUAL AREAS SUCH
AS THE FLANKS OF EL YUNQUE AND THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. MOISTURE
PICKS UP SLOWLY AFTER WEDNESDAY HENCE IMPROVED DYNAMICS DUE TO THE
NEAR PROXIMITY OF THE JET MAXIMUM WILL AID CONVECTION ONLY TO A LIMITED
EXTENT. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOWEVER WILL SEE ONLY A LITTLE OF
THIS CONVECTION...SINCE IT WILL BE MOSTLY TRIGGERED BY ITS LARGER
NEIGHBOR TO THE WEST. MODERATE WINDS OF 8 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE PATTERN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA CHANGES MUCH LESS THAN THE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AND THE VI THROUGH ABOUT 06/22Z. AFT 06/22Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL PR AND VI TAF SITES. ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK...MVFR
CONDS AND LOW CIGS ANTICIPATED IN PASSING SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...CARIBBEAN SEAS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE BELOW THE EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...BUT SEAS OF 7 FEET
OR MORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT TUESDAY IN THE LOCAL NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. 7 FOOT SEAS RETURN ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 73 81 / 30 30 30 30
STT 72 83 72 82 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 PM AST SUN MAR 6 2011

PRC001-059-111-153-062245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0012.110306T2048Z-110306T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-YAUCO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-PENUELAS PR-
448 PM AST SUN MAR 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...YAUCO...GUAYANILLA AND PENUELAS

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 443 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER
THESE MUNICIPALITIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS
MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL 6:45 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6689 1814 6668 1801 6669 1801 6686

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Macrocane]

Cooler than normal minimum temps were registered again this morning in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, in the rest of the region the lows were near normal. The highs experienced this afternoon were near the long term average for this time of year.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.8°C (38.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.6°C (45.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.3°C (63.1°F) Coldest since January 8.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F) Coldest of the year in Tegucigalpa.
La Esperanza, Honduras 7°C (45°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 12.4°C (54.3°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.9°C (58.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 1.8°C (35.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.7°C (54.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.3°C (99.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.9°C (80.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.0°C (73.4°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON MAR 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT MID AND
UPPER LEVELS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF
ALTERNATING SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS MOVING NEAR OR ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...AN INCREASINGLY DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...STILL EXPECT TODAY TO
FEATURE ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF DECENT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE LESS THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...EXPECT A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF
PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER
OF PUERTO RICO FROM 07/18Z THROUGH 07/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTH SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE
WATERS FOR TODAY AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DESPITE RECENT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH...LONG TERM DRYNESS/BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL SUGGESTS THAT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT COULD
DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
URGED TO CONTINUE TO DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THEIR
PROPER RECEPTACLES AND REPORT ANY SMOKE OR FIRE SIGHTINGS TO THE
LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 72 / 40 20 20 10
STT 83 70 81 72 / 40 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST MON MAR 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE ENTRANCE OF A JET MAXIMA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE THROUGH THE
A RECTANGLE IN THE ATLANTIC FROM 25 TO 35 NORTH AND FROM 43 TO 57
WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. A RIDGE...NOW OVER CUBA...WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY FOR
ANOTHER 7 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE DRAPES OVER THE ATLANTIC EQUATORIAL
REGIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVED ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH LITTLE EFFECT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH COASTAL PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE MOVED SLOWLY SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST UNTIL BY AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS HAD FORMED OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA CENTRAL`S
SOUTHERN SLOPES. HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN IN THE
MUNICIPALITY OF VILLALBA. MODELS AND MIMIC IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE AREA UNDER THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
COMPLETELY ELIMINATE THEM. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
THIS WEEK. SINCE FLOW WILL BE FROM MUCH THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL
PLAINS...MIGRATING TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICAN
HIGHLANDS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND DEVELOPING THERE IN
THE AFTERNOONS. MOISTURE SHOULD REACH A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-EMERGING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALSO
IN THE SAME PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO THROUGH ABOUT 07/21Z. AFT 07/21Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE 15 THOUSAND
FEET...WITH A MAXIMUM ABOVE 60 KNOTS NEAR 37 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO MEET MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHEN SEAS ARE BELOW 7 FEET. WIND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10
TO 20 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 80 71 81 / 20 20 10 10
STT 71 82 71 82 / 20 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

Good afternoon! I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations of the unusually cold lows that were experienced in the region in the last few days.

[Macrocane]

Today:
-Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua had near normal temperatures.
-El Salvador had below normal lows again but near normal highs.
-Costa Rica had below normal lows and above normal highs.
-Panama had below normal lows and near normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.3°C (36.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.9°C (49.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 7°C (45°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.5°C (58.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.8°C (40.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.4°C (54.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.2°C (82.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.6°C (97.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Sun-7pmET Mon) for
Mon Mar 07 2011

Piarco Int. Airport, Trinidad 31.9C 89F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.1C 86F
Crown Point, Tobago 29.4C 85F
Point Salines, Grenada 29.4C 85F

Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.1C 84F trace
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.4C 87F 0.2mm
Hewanorra, St Lucia 29.1C 84F

Melville Hall, Dominica 28.5C 84F 1.9mm (Low 20.9C 70F)
Canefield Airport, Dominica 29.6C 85F (Low 19.9C 68F)
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.6C 85F 0.6mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.8C 82F trace
VC Bird, Antigua 27.8C 82F 0.9mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F 2.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.2C 85F
Kingston, Jamaica 29.7C 86F
Havana, Cuba 27.6C 82F 1.0mm
Key West, Florida 22.2C 72F
Miami, Florida 27.2C 81F
Nassau, Bahamas 27.6C 82F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.0C 68F 4.1mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 28.4C 83F 0.7mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.3C 86F 1.8mm

Cayenne, French Guiana 28.3C 83F 15.0mm
Timehri, Guyana 31.5C 89F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
839 PM AST MON MAR 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A SERIES OF ALTERNATING
SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A LONG
FETCH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
PROMOTING A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY AS SEEN ON
ANIMATION OF NESDIS BLENDED TPW IMAGERY WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO AN
INCH. FURTHER DRYING IS FCST OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH MODEL PW
VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW 0.60 INCHES BY TUE EVENING PER LATEST
ECMWF AND NAM12 FCSTS. CURRENT SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CARIB WATERS AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS UNDER VERY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS XCPT FOR SOME FLAT CU OVER THE SRN SLOPES SO HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR BOTH DAYS.

MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST TRADES WED AND THU MORNINGS
THAT COULD RESULT IN A STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE IN LATE AT NIGHT
AND/OR EARLY MORNING. THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR THU
MORNING WHEN MODELS INDICATE PW AND K INDICES RISING.
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE ISOLD LIGHT EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...PATTERN
LOOKS BONE DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS UNDER A LONG FETCH
NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPING PW VALUES AOB AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THRU AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE
NE AT 10 TO 20 KTS BFR GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NNE AFT 08/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 5-7 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS IN MIXED
NORTHEAST SWELLS AND EAST NORTHEAST WIND WAVES. SEAS 2-3 FT CARIB
WATERS. SCA FOR AMZ TIL MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS AND PROMOTE A VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS. RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP SOILS WET FOR ANOTHER DAY.
HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LONG TERM
DRYNESS/BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY FIRE
DANGER THREAT OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 80 71 81 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT MID AND
UPPER LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF
ALTERNATING SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS MOVING NEAR OR ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL...
ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND PROBABLY
BEYOND...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS AND
VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SMALL
PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME AND COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE VERY BRIEF
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS...AND LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
FOR TODAY AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE REMAINING LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND PROMOTE A
VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANCES
OF WETTING RAINS. RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOILS WET FOR ANOTHER DAY. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LONG TERM DRYNESS/BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO
CONTINUE TO DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THEIR PROPER
RECEPTACLES AND REPORT ANY SMOKE OR FIRE SIGHTINGS TO THE LOCAL
FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 81 72 / 10 10 10 20
STT 82 70 82 72 / 10 10 10 10